Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
053 FXUS62 KCAE 300551 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Summer heat and humidity continues into the end of the week. Good news is that a cold front is expected to bring cooler conditions by the weekend. Afternoon showers and storms should occur each day through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Lingering showers and thunderstorms continue tonight, mainly across the Southeastern Midlands. - Increasing confidence in low clouds and/or patchy fog development towards daybreak. - Typical summer day in store for the region. Hot and humid with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Radar tonight is showing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving into the Southeastern Midlands. This activity should continue moving through the region during the next few hours. Otherwise, confidence is in increasing in the potential for low clouds and/or patchy fog towards daybreak. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s. A typical late July day is in store for the Midlands and CSRA. Expect morning clouds to give way to scattered cumulus by midday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Modeled soundings for today show lower CAPE compared to yesterday but it is still sufficient for convective development. While PWATs remain high, in excess of 2 inches, winds aloft are higher than yesterday suggesting a lower flash flood threat. Having said that, any robust thunderstorm could still produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding. Temperatures are cooler than previous days and closer to seasonal averages with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid-70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Temperatures return to closer to normal, although heat indices will remain above 100. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with strong storms and isolated flash flooding possible. Upper level ridging that has been dominant over the past several days will continue to break down and shift to our south and west. A trough will begin to slowly begin to show its impact across the region, with a continuation of scattered to numerous shower and storms as weak shortwaves move through. With plenty of moisture in place once again, a good amount of afternoon instability, any activity will continue to have the potential to produce isolated areas of flooding and gusty winds due to wet microbursts. With the convective cloud debris during the afternoon, that will help to temper the afternoon high temperatures a bit, with readings topping out in the middle 90s. Heat index values reach above 100, but expected to remain below advisory criteria. Look for convection to persist into the overnight hours, with lows staying in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front moving through by Saturday will bring a period of below normal temperatures to the region. - Scattered to numerous showers/storms continue through much of the period - A focused threat for heavy rainfall is expected on Fri/Sat along the cold front Deepening trough aloft will help to drive a cold front into the region Friday into Friday night. Due to the timing, Friday will result in one more hot day across the area, along with scattered to numerous afternoon convection once again. With high pwat values and potential for slow moving storms, there will be a threat of isolated heavy rainfall and associated flooding. Highs Friday reach into the middle 90s, but the good news is a change is coming and it will be several days before we have to worry about temperatures that warm. The cold front moves through Friday night, but there remains uncertainty as to how far south it will move on Saturday before stalling out. At this time it is expected to be able to move through our entire forecast area before stalling out just off to the south. There remains a threat for heavy rainfall still on Saturday along the front. With the front moving south and high pressure building in from the north, a refreshing change in the temperatures is going to occur with highs only in the lower to middle 80s expected. Blended guidance then shows this cooler air lasting into early next week. Even though there will still be a chance for daily showers and storms, the remaining part of the forecast period will be quite refreshing temperature wise for the beginning of August. Enjoy it because we all know the heat will eventually return. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restrictions from Low Clouds and/or Patchy Fog Possible Towards Daybreak.... VFR conditions are currently being observed at the TAF sites tonight. An area of showers and thunderstorms is passing south and east of OGB but should not impact the terminal directly. The next potential for restrictions comes towards daybreak when there is increasing confidence of restrictions from low clouds and/or patchy fog. Any early morning low clouds should transition to SCT cumulus decks by midday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon and evening, resulting in brief restrictions at the terminals followed by quiet weather at night. Light and variable winds are expected outside of any convection. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection could bring brief periods of restrictions through late week as coverage is expected to continue to be higher. With increasing moisture, cannot rule out a couple mornings with patchy stratus or fog. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$