639
FXUS62 KCAE 111027
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will form tonight and pass off the coast this
weekend, resulting in greater rain chances along with cooler and
breezy conditions, mainly across the eastern Midlands. High
pressure will then prevail through the middle of next week, with
dry weather and near to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy and cool across the area today.
- Rain chances expected across the eastern half of the FA,
  potentially increasing tonight further west.
- Breezy conditions to continue.

Active and somewhat uncertain weather expected through early Sunday
and beyond. Water vapor imagery reveals an amplified pattern across
the eastern CONUS. A deep trough is spinning across northern Florida
currently, with an upper level jet streak pushing to the north of
the Carolinas. A beautiful baroclinic leaf in WV imagery is
present across the Carolinas, revealing the position of the
upper level jet streak. In the immediate term (at least through
sunrise or mid- morning), little is expected across the forecast
area in terms of sensible weather. Widespread cloud cover will
prevent temps from falling significantly, keeping lows generally
in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some light showers are possible
across the eastern Midlands through early morning but these
should remain light considering dewpoint depressions are still
10F+.

As we get into the day on Saturday, the coastal low will continue
developing off Carolina coastline. The upper level jet streak should
continue to foster this low developing up the coast of SC through
the day, but confidence on exactly where the low goes is uncertain
and mixed within guidance. This casts some doubt on the forecast
overall, despite the synoptic scale pattern being modeled very
similarly between different pieces of guidance. Generally, with low-
level northeasterly flow increasing as the low strengthens, moisture
is forecast to increase through the day today. Showers are forecast
across the eastern 1/3rd of the forecast area by early afternoon,
with isolated to scattered coverage further west. There should be a
pretty tight moisture gradient across the area which should limit
rainfall coverage as you get into the far western Midlands and
northern CSRA. Highs today are forecast to be muted in general as
widespread cloud cover holds us in the upper 60s and low 70s. As we
get into tonight, the uncertainty in the placement of the surface
low becomes event more important. Some guidance is faster with the
low, pushing it northward into NC and keeping rainfall primarily
confined to Sunday`s forecast for our area. However, some pieces of
guidance (including some CAMs) are pretty aggressive developing rain
this evening and keeping it overnight tonight. Splitting the
difference is a reasonable spot to be in currently, so expect rain
to gradually redevelop tonight after a lull in the eastern Midlands.
It should fill back in and push westward after 2a tonight, with lows
in the 60s expected. Forecaster confidence in the forecast tonight
is lower than normal, but there is high confidence that impacts will
be minimal overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy and cool with scattered areas of rain on Sunday.
- Drying out on Monday with sunshine returning.

Sunday: Upper low moves little on Sunday, remaining overhead.
Associated surface low also slows to a crawl on Sunday just off the
coast of the Carolinas. In between, some significant mid level
frontogenesis will support an area of lift, given us a continuation
of light to at times moderate rain. Tricky part is determining where
the band of higher accumulation will set up. Models show a lot of
variability with the banding, but they generally agree with high end
chance to likely rain, with better chances in eastern and northern
areas. We may need to raise POPs more with later forecasts if we
start to see a convergence of model solutions.

Sunday Night: Upper low finally begins to kick northeast, but
showers will likely linger in the midlands through the evening and
in the Pee Dee well into the night.

Monday and Monday Night: As the system pulls further away into the
Atlantic, a high pressure ridge begins to fill in behind. There is
still a bit of variability on how quickly things dry out in the
east, but for now have followed the quicker models and kept POPs out
of the forecast Monday morning. Drying will continue into Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the week.

High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week. High
temps will run a touch above normal, with lows a touch below normal.
A dry cold front will move through on Wednesday bringing a few
clouds, but chances for showers are low enough to leave out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue currently, with MVFR cigs likely to develop
at some point today.

The forecast hasn`t changed that much, with the exception that
some showers have developed early this morning near OGB. These
have generally remained Southeast of the airport but expect
that they`ll end up impacting Orangeburg this morning.
Regardless of whether they do or not, look for MVFR cigs to move
in from the east in short order this morning. SHowers are
expected to be spotty through the rest of the day at all sites,
with the highest probability for rain at OGB. As we get into the
late afternoon hours, guidance begins to diverge as to when and
where rain redevelops and pushes into the forecast area. It
looks Orangeburg should begin seeing consistent rainfall
sometime around 00z, give or take a few hours, with Columbia
following after that between 03z and 06z, and then even later at
AGS. Some guidance has rain earlier than these periods, while
others don`t have much rain at all tonight! This uncertainty
leads to lower than normal forecaster confidence as all of this
will dictate restrictions overnight. Confidence is high that
breezy winds should continue through the period, with winds out
of the northeast predominant and gusts up to 25 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely Sunday into Sunday
night as a coastal low wraps moisture back into the forecast area.
Conditions will improve during Monday morning, with VFR expected
through mid week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...