471
FXUS62 KCAE 050529
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
129 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible again today as a weak surface
boundary sits over the region. Sunday will see a tropical low
moving inland along the coast, tracking mostly across eastern
SC/NC into Monday morning. As the low moves away from the
region we return to hot temperatures and near normal rain
chances through the remainder of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Lingering showers this evening should diminish after midnight.

A quiet, yet active, day is on tap for the forecast area if that
makes any sense at all. Currently, upper level low continues to
meander across the Carolinas as see in water vapor imagery. This
actually helped spark some convection last evening, which has since
diminished. This upper low has helped to focus lift atop a remnant
frontal boundary off the southeastern US coastline, which has led to
the development of Tropical Depression 3. This feature is currently
about 165 mi southeast of Charleston and is moving extremely slowly.
This will be the crux of the forecast over the next 36 hours as its
development and eventual track will drive our sensible weather.
Today, we should experience the nice part of this system. We are
located on the northwestern periphery of the developing cyclone, and
as it continues to consolidate, we should see some subsidence aloft
increase across the area. This is already noted in just north of the
upper level trough axis and likely will push across the area into
early afternoon.

Seasonally strong northeasterly flow in the lower-levels of the
atmosphere (associated with an increasing pressure gradient) is
expected to push <1" PWs into the central and western Midlands this
afternoon, combining with the upper level subsidence to yield a
fairly nice afternoon. Expecting winds to generally gust 20-25 mph
this afternoon, with some gusts to 30 mph expected. While this is
borderline Lake Wind Advisory criteria, the holiday weekend was a
strong nudger given the amount of lake activities that occur on 4th
of July weekend. So went ahead and hoisted a LWA from 9a through 8p
to account for strong winds over area lakes this afternoon. The
eastern Midlands will likely continue to see increasing clouds &
high PWs, with isolated to scattered showers developing. Highs today
will likely range from the mid/upper 80s in the east tot he low 90s
in the west. Overnight tonight, TD3 is forecast to begin shifting
northwestward into South Carolina. PWs are forecast to rapidly
increase as a result, with rain chances generally increasing after
2a along and east of I77/I26. Despite being close to landfall of
this system, confidence isn`t high on the exact track. This casts
uncertainty on the overall rain chances as the bulk of the
precipitation should be along and east of the center of circulation.
Lows will likely be elevated everywhere tonight given the clouds and
copious low-level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Tropical system moving inland along the SC/NC coastline.

Main weather issue on Sunday will revolve around the tropical low
expected to be just off the central SC coastline starting off the
day. If named, this would become TS Chantal.  The NHC has the
forecast track moving inland during the morning, with the center of
circulation remaining mostly in the coastal plain region of SC
through the day, then into NC Sunday night.  Primary threat should
be some breezy winds/gusts up to 25-30 mph possibly for much of the
area, along with a heavier rainfall potential over extreme eastern
portions of the Midlands and Pee Dee. Best chance for rainfall will
be during the daytime hours on Sunday, then diminishing
rainfall potential as the system moves into NC Sunday night.
Rainfall amounts should remain less than an inch for the
majority of the forecast area through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A return of the heat to start off the week.
- Moisture returns to the region in the long term

The deeper moisture should shift away from the region by mid-week as
ridging builds over the area. This is expected to bring warming
temperatures with climatological rain/storm chances. Highs
early in the week should be quite hot, with readings between 95
and 100 possible Monday through Wednesday. Slightly cooler
conditions may occur by the end of the week as a weak upper
trough approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period. MVFR
cigs potentially encroach upon OGB by the very end of this TAF
period.

Tropical Depression 3 has developed off the South Carolina
coastline and is forecast to dominate the weather over the 48ish
hours. Skies are mostly clear right now and should remain that
way for much of the night. Winds are forecast to be the primary
impact this afternoon, with breezy winds expected. Gusts of
20-25 knots are expected, with an isolated gust to 30 knots
possible. These winds should be out of the northeast through the
entire period at all sites. We should be in an unfavorable
location for widespread showers or storms to develop, especially
with drier air spreading over the Augusta and Columbia terminals this
afternoon. Orangeburg likely won`t see any rain until after 00z,
where a PROB30 accounts for this and and the potential for low
ceilings developing as moisture increases. Its most likely that
these cigs wait until late in this period or just after 06z to
begin building northeastward, eventually overspreading the area
early Sunday as TD3 makes its closest approach.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
     115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$