541
FXUS62 KCAE 140540
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
140 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place through Wednesday before a
reinforcing dry cold front moves through Wednesday night, with
temperatures several degrees cooler behind the boundary. Another
front may approach late in the weekend, bringing the next chance
for rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Sunny, dry, and quiet weather expected

Quiet weather is ongoing currently and is forecast to continue
across the area through the day today. The upper level pattern
remains amplified across the CONUS, with our departing
nor`easter/coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and a strong
mid/upper level low pushing into central California. This is having
an amplifying impact on downstream ridging to our west, with heights
forecast to rise across the region today. Dry air is in place,
with even drier air forecast to shift into the area late this
morning and into this afternoon. PWs currently (per GOES
imagery) are around 1"- 1.1" but upstream they`re around 0.75".
These will push into the region given uniform northwesterly
flow above 500 hPa this afternoon amongst guidance. REFS
forecast soundings this afternoon show a setup for dry and sunny
weather, with strong mid-level subsidence associated with the
rising heights. 850 hPa temps look to be around 12C, which
should yield highs in the low 80s for many, give or take a
degree or two. Tonight, temps are likely to fall a bit given the
dry airmass in place. Look for lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry cold front passes Wednesday night.
- Temperatures cool back down below normal behind the front
  Thursday.

A dry cold front will be moving southward from the Ohio River
Valley region to start off the day Wednesday. This front is not
expected to be pushing into the forecast area until Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. This means that Wednesday will be
another warm day with plenty of sunshine ahead of the front.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The front moves through late Wednesday night, with the primary
change being slightly cooler temperatures Thursday into Thursday
night. Airmass remains dry, so no rainfall expected through the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cooler to end the week.
- Cold front approaches this weekend.
- Next chance for rainfall expected Sunday ahead of this front.

With dry high pressure still in control on Friday, one more
cooler than normal day is expected. Moving into the weekend,
winds will begin to turn more southerly as ridging moves off to
the east of the region into Saturday. Upper trough moving
through the central U.S. will be pushing another cold front
eastward through the weekend. Low level winds turn more
southerly, bringing some moisture back into the area ahead of
the front. With good warm advection expected on Saturday,
temperatures will once again rise into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s for most area. Saturday should still remain dry will
no significant forcing expected through the day. Better chance
for rainfall with showers and a few storms should occur on
Sunday ahead of the front. Best dynamics may remain just north
of the area, and instability is not the greatest, so majority of
the precip should remain as showers, with only an isolated storm
possible. The front should push through the area Sunday night
with dry high pressure expected to be building on on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Clear skies are present across the area as dry air works its way
into the forecast area. Winds are light as of the moment and
these two thing should create a favorable setup for some light
ground fog especially at our typical fog sites (AGS/OGB). OGB
has already see fog this evening and expecting the periodic
threat of this to continue there and develop late at AGS.
Throughout the day today, northerly winds and dry air are
expected to keep skies mostly clear. Winds should be out of the
north around 5-10 knots, dying off after Sunset. Light winds
and clear skies are then forecast to take us to the end of the
period!

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions continue through
Friday. A dry front will work into the forecast area late
Wednesday or early Thursday shifting winds from N/NW to NE.
Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping up chances for
restrictions and convection ahead of another front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$