472
FXUS62 KCAE 010552
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
152 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in from the north keeps relatively dry
conditions and below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Low
chances for precipitation late Wednesday and Thursday as a
disturbance passes through, with drier and warmer conditions for
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-Cool, dry, and breezy

Surface high pressure continues to ridge into the region from
the north, promoting NE flow into the forecast area. Derived
PWAT imagery from GOES show values as low as 0.75 inches in the
Pee Dee up to 1.25 inches in the CSRA. The dry air mass will
prevent precip and allow afternoon dewpoints to stay in the 50s.
A 25 kt Low Level Jet (LLJ) will mix down this morning allowing
gusts up to 25 mph at the surface. Although considered breezy
for the time of year, we are not expected to meet Lake Wind
Criteria. Gusts will continue into the afternoon, diminishing
around sunset. Highs will be in the low 80s with lows mainly in
the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Below normal temperatures and very low humidity.

Beautiful weather is expected to continue both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Guidance continues to be in good agreement that a
dry and cool(ish) short term period is on tap across the
forecast area. Deep, anomalous troughing aloft is forecast to be
the synoptic pattern, with persistent convergence across the
Mid- Atlantic maintaining surface high pressure. This is
forecast to keep a surface ridge axis along the eastern slopes
of the Appalachians both days, with northeasterly flow
gradually shifting to easterly by Wednesday afternoon as the
surface ridging begins to weaken. This is forecast in advance of
an amplification of the overall upper level trough, with a
strong shortwave digging into the OH Valley by late Wednesday
night and helping pull slightly greater moisture into the
region. But in general, PWs are forecast to be 60-70% of normal,
with mostly sunny skies each day. Highs will be below normal
but slowly moderating, with highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday
and mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. The dry air in place should
aid in creating large diurnal temperature ranges, with lows
forecast in the low to mid 60s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Deep troughing favored through the first half of this period,
  modifying by the end of the week
- Temperatures expected to be slightly above normal by this
  weekend
- Rain chances look quite suspicious by the middle of the week

Very little has changed with the forecast over the last 24
hours, with trends noted yesterday continuing in the guidance
today. Guidance continue to push the rain chances back by
6h-12h each run and is also generally drier than it was a few
days ago. Am quite skeptical that we even receive rain with
this front on Thursday, although it remains possible especially
Thursday night. Tis the season for dry fronts and guidance to be
too aggressive with rain along them! Even though the trough is
forecast to be deep and anomalously so across the Great Lakes
and OH Valley by early weekend, the reinforcing shortwave is
actually going to help it consolidate a bit and lead to heights
rising back to near normal. With a dry airmass in place,
ensembles continue to point to above normal temps returning in
the Friday through Sunday timeframe as a cold front (associated
with the aforementioned trough) works towards us. Ensembles are
confident in this, showing 70%+ chances of 2m temp anomalies at
3+ degrees above normal. So look for highs in the low 90s as we
get into this next weekend, with lows in the mid 60s each night.


&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected with breezy NE winds

Cool, dry air continues to filter into the region leading to a
dry forecast and persistent NE winds. A 25 kt LLJ will prevent
restrictions this morning and mix down after 14Z leading to
gusts at the surface up to 20 kts at the terminals. NE gusts
will continue through the afternoon then diminish around sunset.
Thin cirrus may advect into the region with a few cumulus in
the afternoon but no ceilings are expected. The air mass should
be too dry overnight to pose much of a fog/stratus concern.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather generally favored through
the week with low chances for significant restrictions. A front
may push into the Southeast near the end of the extended but
moisture remains limited.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$