455
FXUS62 KCAE 261040
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build into the region through the
weekend, remaining in place into early next week. This will
likely result in less convection but also bring a prolonged
period of dangerous heat and humidity. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for later today, with another Heat Advisory Sunday into
Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid today with very low rain chances. The first
  Heat Advisory is in effect from 11am until 9pm.

- Warm and muggy conditions again tonight.

Strong upper ridging will be overheard today, kicking off an
extended period of high heat and humidity. Expect clear skies at
daybreak to become partly to mostly sunny with scattered cumulus
in the afternoon. Due to the presence of strong subsidence from
the aforementioned ridge, the threat of rain is very low, less
than 10 percent. Winds are also expected to be generally light,
providing little relief from the heat. The combination of
daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and
high dewpoints should produce heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees during peak heating. With this in mind, no changes were
made to the existing Heat Advisory. The Southern Midlands and
CSRA are most likely to see the highest heat index values today.
Generally clear skies are expected tonight with temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dangerous Heat Wave will continue into early next week.

Center of the upper ridge will begin slowly moving west of the
forecast area Sunday into Monday. However its influence will
continue to impact temperatures through the period. 500 mb
heights remain near climatological norms into Monday, keeping
temperatures well above normal at the surface. In addition,
there will be some moisture increase. Afternoon temperature
expected to rise into the lower 100s Sunday, with heat index
values above 108, thus reaching heat advisory criteria. We have
issued another Heat Advisory for Sunday due to this. We have
extended this into the overnight hours Sunday night into Monday
morning due to dangerous overnight low temperatures. Lows only
forecast to reach to around 80 degrees by Monday morning, so
little relief from the heat and humidity overnight. With the
nearness of the upper ridge, Sunday should remain mostly dry.

For Monday, we have gone ahead and put up an Excessive Heat
WATCH through the late morning into the early evening hours.
Blended guidance has been consistent with bringing daytime
highs back above 100 for the entire forecast area. Heat index
values right now are right around 112-113 for a large portion of
the Midlands and CSRA, which is really close to Warning
criteria. There is some uncertainty as to whether those criteria
can ultimately be met, mainly due to potential afternoon
scattered convection developing, and if dewpoints end up
slightly lower than forecast. Either one of these could impact
afternoon conditions. One way or another, it`s going to be HOT
again. The Excessive Heat Watch will either be upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning or to another Heat Advisory at some
point.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dangerous Heat Expected to Continue into Next Week

The upper ridge that has been impacting our temperatures is
expect to continue moving further westward by Tuesday. This
should bring slightly lower heights over the area, and along
with it slightly lower afternoon highs. Can`t really say cool
since upper 90s for many areas is still hot. However the heat
index values will also drop somewhat, back down into borderline
Advisory criteria Tuesday, then below 108 for heat indices
Wednesday onward. Should see an increase in afternoon shower and
thunderstorm coverage as the high moves away too. A reprieve
from the heat could occur Friday into Saturday as a cold front
may be able to push into the region, bringing a refreshing
combination of drier and cooler temperatures. Until then, we`ll
have to deal with the heat and humidity of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR Conditions Continue....

No significant aviation hazards are expected today. All sites
are currently VFR. Expect SCT cumulus to develop later today,
not impacting ceiling restrictions, with winds of 3 to 8 knots,
becoming light or calm again at night. The threat of rain is
low through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Spotty afternoon convection could
bring brief periods of restrictions on Sunday afternoon before
convection potentially increases in coverage next week. Outside
of this, VFR conditions are expected to prevail each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$