300
FXUS62 KCAE 041844
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
244 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible again today as a weak surface
boundary sits over the area. Late this weekend and early next
week moisture returns to the region as low pressure develops
off of the Southeast coast. As the low moves away from the
region we return to near normal rain chances through the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Mostly quiet July 4th with only a few showers around in the
  eastern Midlands.

Based on current water vapor imagery, a weak shortwave aloft is
spinning through the area and is what is causing this widespread
upper level stratus. Lower, strengthening northeasterly flow
from 700mb to the surface continues the neutral-dry advection
into the region and as such the PWAT gradient across the area
is steepening a little. The deepest moisture with PWAT`s close
to 2.0" remains mainly east of I-95. Thanks to the weak
shortwave aloft and still sufficient moisture, a few showers are
expected across the eastern Midlands these afternoon and
evening but PoP`s in general are quite low; cannot rule out a
couple brief weak showers into the central Midlands as well.
Otherwise, the gusty northeast winds will continue into the
evening with some frequent gusts over 20 mph likely. Winds will
weaken late this evening and outside of some firework smoke-
haze, no fog is expected overnight into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Surface low pressure situated offshore
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms

A diffuse surface boundary will remain over the region with
relatively dry air over the western FA. A developing surface
low off of the GA/SC coast will wrap moisture into the
Lowcountry and eastern Midlands with PWAT values up to 1.75
inches in the eastern Midlands. With more moisture in place than
the previous day we would expect isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of I-20. The
HRRR and NAM seem to be at odds with the depth of mixing
occurring on Saturday afternoon while the GFS is somewhere
between showing some weak potential instability over the area to
support convection. It will be breezy as the low approaches and
the pressure gradient tightens but gusts should remain limited
to around 25 mph, below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Saturday
night the low could meander a little further towards the coast
leading to a chance of rain through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Moisture returns to the region in the long term

The first portion of the long term, from Sunday through Monday,
will largely depend on the positioning of low pressure currently
sitting offshore. Models tend to be in a little more agreement
today on shifting the low west and bringing stronger moisture
advection into the forecast area. This would likely bring
rainfall into SC/NC but otherwise winds should remain below any
product criteria in central SC and eastern GA. The deeper
moisture should shift away from the region by mid-week as
ridging builds over the area. This week lead to warming temps
with climatological rain/storm chances. Highs mid-week may climb
into the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Drier air continues to fill in across the area, with some mid-
upper level strato-cu and typical summer cu in place. A couple
of showers are likely across SC and eastern GA this afternoon
and evening, but confidence is too low for any mentions; only
included a VCSH at OGB later this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty
northeast winds will continue throughout the afternoon and
evening, with some gusts 16-20 knots likely to persist out of
the northeast. These winds will weaken late this evening and
generally go light overnight. No fog or stratus is expected for
Saturday morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... There is then the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$