002
FXUS62 KCAE 051016
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
616 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible again today as a weak surface
boundary sits over the region. Sunday will see a tropical low
moving inland along the coast, tracking mostly across eastern
SC/NC into Monday morning. As the low moves away from the
region we return to hot temperatures and near normal rain
chances through the remainder of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy day expected across the area as TD3 organizes and moves
  northward

A quiet, yet active, day is on tap for the forecast area if that
makes any sense at all. Currently, upper level low continues to
meander across the Carolinas as see in water vapor imagery. This
actually helped spark some convection last evening, which has since
diminished. This upper low has helped to focus lift atop a remnant
frontal boundary off the southeastern US coastline, which has led to
the development of Tropical Depression 3. This feature is currently
about 165 mi southeast of Charleston and is moving extremely slowly.
This will be the crux of the forecast over the next 36 hours as its
development and eventual track will drive our sensible weather.
Today, we should experience the nice part of this system. We are
located on the northwestern periphery of the developing cyclone, and
as it continues to consolidate, we should see some subsidence aloft
increase across the area. This is already noted in just north of the
upper level trough axis and likely will push across the area into
early afternoon.

Seasonally strong northeasterly flow in the lower-levels of the
atmosphere (associated with an increasing pressure gradient) is
expected to push <1" PWs into the central and western Midlands this
afternoon, combining with the upper level subsidence to yield a
fairly nice afternoon. Expecting winds to generally gust 20-25 mph
this afternoon, with some gusts to 30 mph expected. While this is
borderline Lake Wind Advisory criteria, the holiday weekend was a
strong nudger given the amount of lake activities that occur on 4th
of July weekend. So went ahead and hoisted a LWA from 9a through 8p
to account for strong winds over area lakes this afternoon. The
eastern Midlands will likely continue to see increasing clouds &
high PWs, with isolated to scattered showers developing. Highs today
will likely range from the mid/upper 80s in the east tot he low 90s
in the west. Overnight tonight, TD3 is forecast to begin shifting
northwestward into South Carolina. PWs are forecast to rapidly
increase as a result, with rain chances generally increasing after
2a along and east of I77/I26. Despite being close to landfall of
this system, confidence isn`t high on the exact track. This casts
uncertainty on the overall rain chances as the bulk of the
precipitation should be along and east of the center of circulation.
Lows will likely be elevated everywhere tonight given the clouds and
copious low-level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Tropical system moving inland along the SC/NC coastline.

Main weather issue on Sunday will revolve around the TD3 expected
to be just off the central SC coastline starting off the day.
The NHC has the forecast track moving inland during the morning,
with the center of circulation remaining mostly in the coastal
plain region of SC through the day, then into NC Sunday night.
Primary threat should be some gusts of up to 20 mph over much of
the cwa, along with a heavier rainfall potential over extreme
eastern portions of the Midlands and Pee Dee. Best chance for
rainfall will be during the daytime hours on Sunday, then
diminishing rainfall potential as the system moves into NC
Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should remain less than an inch
for the majority of the forecast area through the period,
although isolated high amounts above an inch possible closer to
the coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A return of the heat to start off the week.
- Moisture returns to the region in the long term

Tropical low moves away from the area Monday, then the deeper
moisture should shift away from the region by mid-week as ridging
builds over the area. This is expected to bring warming temperatures
with climatological rain/storm chances. Highs early in the week
should be quite hot, with readings between 95 and 100 possible
Monday through Wednesday. Slightly cooler conditions may occur
by the end of the week as a weak upper trough approaches the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening, with MVFR and
IFR cigs likely at OGB and CAE/CUB tonight.

TD3 is the primary weather problem over the next 24 hours. It is
currently southeast of Charleston, meandering northward. Before
it directly impacts us, the pressure gradient is forecast to
tighten through the day today. Winds will likely gust 20-25
knots, with some 28-30 knot gusts possible. Clouds are likely
to increase through the day today as moisture slowly but surely
increases. Some isolated showers are possible at OGB this
afternoon but in general these look isolated enough to keep out
of the TAFs right now. However, tonight moisture should become
more copious and begin yielding consistent shower chances.
Accompanying this should be MVFR ceilings, with IFR likely after
07z or 08z. At the Columbia sites, it is less certain when or if
showers push in during this period. It seems likely that at
least MVFR cigs will move in after 08z but rain is going to
depend on where the exact track of TD3 goes. Augusta and Daniel
are total wild cards. LAMP and NBM guidance suggests that both
will see MVFR cigs late in this period but I`m skeptical of this
considering the track should be well east of there. Still show a
BKN025 group there after 10z but confidence is low in this
occurring right now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...