097
FXUS62 KCAE 091038
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
638 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air moves into the region today behind the
cold front with gusty northeast winds. Cooler, drier and breezy
conditions expected into Friday. Coastal low develops this
weekend with continued breezy conditions but mostly dry weather
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler, drier, and breezy.

- Lake Wind Advisory in effect.

Cold front continues to push southward through the Midlands
into the CSRA at the time of this discussion. Rain has generally
been confined to the Coastal Plain and expect a dry forecast
through the period. Gusty northeasterly winds exist behind the
front as strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
region ridges into the forecast area. Satellite imagery shows
lingering mid level cloud cover across the region and this is
confirmed on forecast soundings to continue into early afternoon
then begin to clear as drier air works into the region.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with lingering clouds and
continued cold advection across the region with highs expected
in the lower to mid 70s. Strong northeasterly winds persist
today and expecting strong gusts over the lakes with the best
mixing at night with cold advection and Lake Wind Advisory is
already in effect. Some clearing tonight, except for maybe
across the eastern Midlands where more clouds are expected
closer to the stalled frontal boundary at the coast. Overnight
lows expected to fall into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and breezier with a few showers possible in the eastern
area.

High pressure centered over the northeastern US Friday with a 500mb
trough over the area and highest moisture off the coast of South
Carolina. While there will a bit of a moisture gradient in the
eastern portion of the forecast area, the majority of HREF members
indicate PWATs will be less than an inch in a quarter Friday, even
in the eastern portion of the area. Models are indicating that the
upper trough may close off, allowing for some of this moisture to
push farther inland as a surface low develops along the coast late
Friday into Saturday but blended guidance keeps pops around 20
percent or lower, favoring the I-95 corridor. While a few showers
are possible in the eastern area, most of the area is expected to
remain dry through the short term.

Lingering pressure gradient over the area, first from the high
pressure over the northeast, then reinforced by low pressure
developing near the coast. This will lead to breezy northeasterly
winds continuing each day. The Lake Wind Advisory remains in place
until 11am Friday for the highest potential for gusts up to 30mph.
Cooler air mass in place with cold advection continuing will lead to
highs in the low to mid 70s and lows generally in the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderating into next week to near or slightly
above average with dry weather.

Upper trough expected to push off to the northeast with the surface
low moving along the East Coast, away from the forecast area.
Blended guidance shows fairly high confidence with a limited spread
in high temperature forecast as upper ridging begins to strengthen
over the central CONUS. This will likely lead to above average
temperatures by midweek. With this upper ridging, dry conditions are
expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected except for possible brief
restrictions at AGS/DNL until 14z.

A cold front has pushed through the region with some patchy MVFR
stratocumulus cigs at AGS/DNL. Drier air continues to advect
into the region and cigs should return to VFR by 14z. Scattered
mid level clouds possible through late morning but should be
decreasing through the day as drier air builds into the region.
Northeasterly winds persist with gusts to 20 to 25 mph through
the afternoon. Winds expected to stay up overnight with a 30-35
knot low level jet which will prevent fog concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry conditions and predominantly
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the extended.
Gusty NE winds are expected again Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$