211
FXCA20 KWBC 041959
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2025

FORECAST BULLETIN 4 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 20:00 UTC

...LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS...
MJO:
THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 6. AS IT PROGRESSES INTO PHASE 7 IN
THE NEXT FOLLOWING DAYS IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION.

KELVIN WAVE:
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THERE IS A POTENTIAL
KELVIN WAVE APPROACHING THE AMERICAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NINA

OVERALL WE KEEP OBSERVING THE SAME PATTERN WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THOSE CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL DURING LA NINA
AND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR... IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER CONVERGENCE
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AMERICAS.

... SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN MEXICO...
UPPER LEVELS: A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT TODAY.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN.

MID LEVELS: A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH HIGH VORTICITY IS LOCATED OVER
EASTERN MEXICO. THE STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THIS LEVEL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY. THIS VORTICITY
EXITS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...THE
DOWNDRAFT PORTION  WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM IN
THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

LOWER-LEVELS: RELATIVE LARGE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN
OAXACA.

...PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO...
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ..EASTERN OAXACA: A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...
UPPER LEVELS:  A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BY THURSDAY THIS RIDGE
WILL EXIT THE REGION.

MID-LEVELS: THE RIDGE AT MID LEVELS ENHANCED THE TRADE WIND
INVERSION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER DRY AIR AT THIS LEVEL
CONTINUES DOMINATING OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR STABLE
CONDITIONS AND WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVENTION OVER
THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY LOOSE
AMPLIFICATION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

LOWER LEVELS:
CONDITIONS REMAINED THE SAME WITH LOW LEVEL OF MOISTURE PLUMES
PROPAGATING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE LOCAL DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

...PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN...
THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
LESSER ANTILLES: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAXIMA OF 10 -15MM ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY.
JAMAICA: MAXIMA OF 10 - 15MM ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND A MAXIMA
OF 10MM ON THURSDAY.
EASTERN CUBA: MAXIMA OF 10MM ON THURSDAY.

...CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE AND THE
CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN. NICARAGUA...
NORTHEASTERN OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE WESTERN PART OF PANAMA
BELIZE ARE THE REGION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS.

...PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED AREAS:
BELIZE: MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EASTERN NICARAGUA: MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FOR TUESDAY...A MAXIMA
20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HONDURAS: MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FOR TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST PANAMA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON
THURSDAY.

...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
UPPER SPEED CONVERGENCE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...SEEMS TO PROVIDE WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR. THE
PARALLEL ONSHORE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ...COULD LIMIT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBIA.
THEREFORE...THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:

CENTRAL COAST OF ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 25 -
40MM ON TUESDAY.
ECUADOR: A MAXIMA OF 20- 35MM ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER MAXIMA OF
20 - 45MM ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 15 -25MM ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

THE  PERSISTENT NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL KEEP PROMOTING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
THAT REGION.

IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... HOWEVER THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL AROUND THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA AREA EXPECTED:
AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 15- 25MM ON TUESDAY.
GUIANAS: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON TUESDAY.
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE REST OF THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ALONG THE NET ITCZ...WITH MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 15 - 30MM
TO THE NORTH OF THE  ITCZ / NET AND  20 - 40MM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ / NET FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.

FOR GRAPHICAL INFORMATION:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

LEDESMA...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC










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