526
FXCA20 KWBC 211701
PMDCA

Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

FORECAST BULLETIN 21 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 17:00 UTC

...Large Scale Conditions...
MJO:
The MJO is currently in phase 8. This MJO phase generally favors
upper level divergence in the Americas.

Kelvin Wave:
No significant kelvin wave approaching the Caribbean basin.

ENSO conditions:
La Nina
The weather pattern has remained generally stable... with typical
la nina conditions prevailing throughout the entire basin this
February.

...Synoptic conditions in the Caribbean basin...
A surface cold front is currently advancing southward into the
Caribbean region. By Friday evening, the cold front will be
positioned over the southeast Bahamas, while the stationary front
will continue to stretch from central Cuba and into the northwest
Yucatan Peninsula. On Saturday the cold front will be located east
of Cuba and a stationary front that will extend into the Yucatan
peninsula. This cold front and stationary front will dissipate
from Saturday evening into Sunday

...Precipitation in the Caribbean...
Isolated maxima of 10 to 15mm in some Caribbean islands on Friday.
Mostly dry conditions due a decrease in precipitable water in the
basin from Friday into Sunday.

...Central America...
A weak mid-level ridge over the western Caribbean basin will
enhance the trade winds over the area. The easterly trades and a
weak Caribbean low-level jet will favor isolated showers over
northeastern Honduras, Belize, Costa Rica  and Panama. The
interaction with the topography may further influence localized
rainfall maxima in these regions.

...Precipitation in Central America...
Precipitation accumulations are not expected to exceed 20mm.

...Synoptic conditions over tropical South America...
A region of interest is Ecuador and far southwest Colombia, where
warm SST and the pacific ITCZ continue to promote diurnal
convection in the pacific coast. In addition, upper level
divergence seems to provide enough support for deep convection.
The onshore flow at lower levels along the pacific ITCZ will
become more perpendicular by Friday...which could enhance an
increase in moisture over Ecuador and southwest of Colombia.
Therefore...the following precipitation maxima are expected:

Coast of Ecuador/Southwest Colombia: a maxima of 25 - 50mm on
Friday and 35 - 70mm on Saturday.
Northern Ecuador: a maxima of 30 - 60mm on Sunday.
Western Colombia: a maxima of 20 - 35mm on Sunday.
The rest of Colombia: a maxima of 15 - 40mm on Friday, 20 - 40mm
Saturday and Sunday.

In the Atlantic basin...the ITCZ in combination with upper level
divergence will promote rainfall accumulation...from Friday into
Sunday...the largest precipitation maxima over Amapa.

The following maxima are expected:
Amapa: a maxima of 25 - 50mm on Friday and 20 - 40mm on Saturday
and Sunday.

The rest of the tropical south america will experience upper
divergence enhancing precipitation along the NET ITCZ...with
maxima of 20 - 60mm for the forecast cycle. The largest
accumulation are expected on Saturday and Sunday

For graphical information:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Ledesma...(WPC)
Alamo...(WPC)
$$