127
FXUS65 KBYZ 140100
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
700 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical summer weather (temps in upper 80s and 90s) for late
  this week through the middle of next week. A low risk of
  thunderstorms each day. Temps could push 100 degrees next
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move east near the
Montana-Wyoming state line this evening, with the majority of the
activity remaining on the Wyoming side. By late this evening into
tonight, look for this activity to come to an end. While this
activity is mostly benign, the main threat continues to be gusty
winds. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions prevail across the
majority of plains this evening. Look for overnight lows tonight
to remain in the mid 50s and 60s under clear to mostly clear
skies.

Note: A couple of new wildfires are producing smoke plumes over
eastern Montana this evening. While smoke impacts remain localized
at this time, those sensitive to smoke should stay alert as
temporary impacts are possible near and downstream of the fires.
Arends

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday Night...

A small vort max continues to push along the MT/WY border early
this afternoon bringing with it scattered showers and storms. As
this feature moves eastwards it will make way for a more potent
vort max associated with a shortwave through moving along the
MT/AB border. This will bring another chance for showers and
storms to initiate off of the mountains this afternoon. With all
parameters being fairly lackluster, severe storms are not
expected. The main threat would be strong wind gusts as the whole
CWA rapidly warms up creating inverted-v style soundings with
nearly 1500 J/Kg of DCAPE. Many CAMs have a line of storms forming
in Fallon/Carter counties around 23z this evening before quickly
moving out of our area.

Aside from convectively induced winds, there may also be some
breezy synoptic winds across the area this afternoon. As the same
jet bringing the potential for storms moves into our area, in the
coming hours the 40-50kt 500mb winds should be able to mix down
in a modified state across the western 1/2 of the CWA. Areas in
the foothills and more gap wind prone areas should see the highest
gusts potentially reaching up to 35mph (not including
convection). With these downsloping winds and lower moisture
content today, some heightened fire concerns exist for this
afternoon and evening, however, given the precip around today as
well as the very moist past 30 days we have seen, there is no
cause for alarm for this setup.

Looking at Thursday, a cold front is progged to move through the
entire region in the morning. Models have started to show that the
impacts from this weak front will be short lived as ridging may
build back in as soon as Thursday afternoon. The main impact that
this front will have is ushering in drier air. By late afternoon
winds should have a northerly component to them brining advecting
in the drier air situated to the north. Some hazy skies are
possible across the region Thursday as some smoke may be pushed
into the area by the upper level jet. If we are able to mix out
enough Thursday afternoon some of this smoke may approach the
surface. WMR

Friday through Wednesday...

Expect very typical August weather over the next week to 10 days
as upper level ridging dominates the Rockies and high plains.

Convective potential should be somewhat suppressed on Friday as
the ridge is flattened somewhat. Backed SW flow begins to open the
door to monsoonal convection Saturday, at least over the
mountains. Near normal temps Friday will climb to a bit above
normal (low-mid 90s) Saturday.

Greater thunderstorm activity should occur Sunday & Monday as
moisture deepens (pwats near 1") and a couple shortwaves emerge
from the SW flow aloft. Do not see much of a severe risk per the
above normal heights and warm mid levels, but gusty winds and
locally moderate to heavy rain could occur in such an air mass.
Something to watch. Temps should return to near normal with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

There is emerging ensemble consensus for the ridge to strengthen
again and the air mass to turn drier next Tuesday-Wednesday. Would
expect another surge of monsoon moisture over time (i.e. by late
week), but there seems to be a couple days of potentially hotter
weather. Locations that haven`t reached 100F yet this summer could
definitely threaten triple digits on these days. Current NBM
probabilities for highs of 100F are about 25% at Billings on
Tuesday & Wednesday, and 30-50% at lower elevations further east
(like Hardin, Forsyth & Miles City). Summer is definitely not
over. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move east near the
Montana-Wyoming state line this evening. With this, gusty and
erratic winds are the main threat. Look for this activity to come
to an end by midnight tonight. While VFR conditions will prevail
this evening into Thursday, slant range visibility will be reduced
at times from local and regional wildfires. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/090 060/090 062/094 064/090 061/092 062/095 063/095
    20/U    20/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    10/U    10/U
LVM 054/090 050/090 053/091 055/087 052/090 054/093 055/092
    11/U    10/U    01/B    23/T    22/T    10/U    00/U
HDN 061/090 058/091 060/095 061/091 059/094 060/096 061/097
    10/U    20/U    00/B    12/T    21/U    10/U    10/U
MLS 063/087 061/090 064/093 065/090 062/089 064/093 065/095
    00/U    20/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    20/U    10/U
4BQ 065/089 062/090 064/091 065/089 062/090 063/092 064/095
    10/U    20/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    20/U    10/U
BHK 061/088 058/085 060/088 061/086 059/085 059/088 061/090
    10/U    20/U    11/B    22/T    31/B    21/U    10/U
SHR 059/090 056/091 059/092 058/089 057/090 058/093 060/094
    21/U    21/U    11/B    22/T    12/T    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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