654
FXUS65 KBYZ 210958
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
258 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized fog early this morning, then again tonight into early
  Sunday.

- Below normal temps through the weekend.

- Warm and very windy pattern returns early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The combination of a northerly 70kt H3 jet and weak low level
convergence continues to be sufficient for light snow in a region
south and southeast of Billings as of 0945z (in fact, Billings is
still seeing occasional flurries). This precip should gradually
taper off over the next few hours (by 15z?) as the air mass dries
and becomes more stable as we transition toward anticyclonic flow
aloft. As precip ends the low level light easterly winds will keep
areas of low stratus and in all likelihood localized fog in
central portions of the cwa, near the backdoor frontal boundary
(near a Harlowton to Billings to Sheridan line). If a more
significant stratus layer develops this could persist thru much of
the day as easterly winds become dominant and push to the western
foothills, with additional assistance from recent light snowfall.
This in turn could hold temps down today and lead to fog
potential continuing tonight in the same easterly upslope areas.
Something to monitor. The forecast is in good shape. Have expanded
pops/wx for light snow early this morning, increased coverage of
patchy fog thru 18z, and lowered today`s forecast highs a bit. By
the way, mesonet station near Lodge Grass has picked up 1.7" of
snow since Friday evening. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday...

This weekend we will see less active weather than we have seen
with the past few days of light snow. During the day Today a
backdoor cold front looks to make its way through the eastern 1/2
to 2/3 of the CWA. This will not do much in the way of weather
besides keep temperatures just a touch below average for most of
the region Saturday. Even through temps will be mostly below
freezing, expect snow to continue to melt due to the partly sunny
skies.

Moving into the late weekend the ridge will be plenty established
to start setting up some wind for Sunday night through Monday.
Livingston will be the first to see some strong winds with their
gap flow starting up Sunday night. Models are depicting a 10-15mb
gradient between IDA-LWT peaking in the morning hours Monday.
When this is combined with the advancing 700mb jet of 40-50kts,
wind gusts in the 60 mph range seem likely through sunrise
Monday. As we move into the day Monday the winds will transition
to more of a mix down mode. The US-191 corridor will be the main
focus of the strongest winds where gusts in the 40s and 50s mph
are anticipated for places such as Harlowton and Big Timber. The
40-50kt 700mb jet will continue to spread across the entire CWA
which will allow for breezy conditions everywhere during the
daytime hours. Monday night through Tuesday looks like it could
simply be a copy and paste forecast from Sunday night Monday;
from the Livingston winds all the way through the mix down during
the day.

Tuesday night the ridge gradually breaks down and the main jet
sets itself up right overtop of the CWA bringing with it Pacific
moisture and better upper level dynamics. During the day Tuesday
the right entrance region of the 250mb jet streak emerges off of
the MT Front Range which will result in lee side cyclogenesis and
chances for precipitation in the evening and overnight. It
appears that temperatures and snow levels will be lowering through
the evening, however, the precip type remains a question outside
of the mountains and foothills as it will likely be borderline
rain/snow. 24 hours later a true shortwave is progged to dive into
the area Wednesday which looks to bring better chances for
precipitation.

Long range models keep our area near the main upper level jet
which will allow for repeated chances for precipitation, cool
temps, and wind. Stay tuned to the forecast as impactful weather
may continue through the end of the month. WMR

.AVIATION...

Area of light snow E/S of Billings will slowly dissipate between
now and sunrise. Precip will produce areas of MVFR/IFR, but
additionally there is some IFR stratus which will linger through
the morning. Localized fog is also expected (20-30% chance). The
stratus will be something to watch as it could spread toward the
western foothills and expand in coverage as easterly winds become
dominant today. This could lead to lingering upslope fog/stratus
issues tonight. Most likely to see fog/stratus is KHWQ-KBIL-KSHR,
but it could spread westward enough to reach K6S0 and KLVM at some
point. Outside of fog and stratus and once the light snow ends,
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure begins to
build in from the west. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 009/034 020/056 040/057 035/048 031/055 035/055
    1/B 00/B    00/B    14/W    63/W    11/N    12/W
LVM 032 014/043 030/057 041/052 032/042 029/049 034/050
    0/B 00/B    00/N    25/W    62/J    11/N    12/W
HDN 028 007/036 016/059 034/057 033/050 028/057 031/057
    2/J 00/B    00/B    14/W    64/W    11/N    12/W
MLS 021 003/030 015/054 032/052 030/046 028/053 031/049
    0/U 00/B    00/B    12/W    42/W    11/N    12/W
4BQ 026 005/035 019/058 034/057 033/047 028/054 032/054
    2/J 00/B    00/B    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 018 903/024 010/050 030/050 025/043 023/050 026/045
    0/B 00/B    00/B    12/W    43/J    11/N    11/N
SHR 029 007/039 018/059 032/057 027/045 020/052 026/053
    2/J 00/B    00/B    03/W    65/W    11/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings