584
FXUS65 KBYZ 061851
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1251 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

- Another round of showers and weak thunderstorms late Friday
  through Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures and drier conditions forecast Sunday
  through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Next Tuesday...

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue through
this afternoon, ahead of an approaching shortwave. Models continue
to show a moderate to high chance of precipitation as this wave
moves through the area late this evening through Thursday. The
best chance of precipitation exists in the mountains and the
south- central zones. Warm temperatures are forecast for Thursday
in the 60s to low 70sF and moisture availability will increase
with ensembles depicting precipitable water anomalies of 100 to
150%. HiRes models are showing modest instability tomorrow, with a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE. With that said, rain showers and a few
weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
While severe storms are not expected, stronger showers and any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief, moderate to
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Look for breezy winds ahead of the
wave late this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 15 to 30 mph
(greatest around and west of Billings). These winds will diminish
a bit Thursday morning before picking up into the afternoon again
across the area.

Precipitation will gradually come to an end from NW to SE late
Thursday night, as brief ridging rebuilds for Friday. The current
forecast has high temperatures in the 70sF and little to no chance
of precipitation.

Models and ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving
through the Northern Rockies late Friday through Saturday,
bringing another increased chance of showers. There remains
uncertainty on the extent of precipitation though the chance for
at least 0.1" of liquid is low to moderate for southeast MT.
Models are showing little CAPE on Saturday so strong storms are
not expected but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.
Saturday does have breezy to gusty winds with pressure rises
across the area. Gusts are forecast in the 20s to 45 mph.

A backdoor cold front moves into the area Saturday night though
little impacts are anticipated with this, overnight lows are
forecast in the 30s to low 40s. Otherwise, ridging and northwest
flow aloft returns Sunday into the new week. High temperatures are
currently forecast in the 70s and 80sF, along with drier
conditions.

Matos

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail today ahead of our next weather system
that will bring scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area tonight into Thursday. With this activity, the main
threats are brief MVFR conditions under heavier showers or
thunderstorms and gusty and erratic winds. While MVFR conditions
could occur at any point tonight into Thursday, the gusty and
erratic wind threat is mainly just tonight into early Thursday
morning. Over the mountains, the rain and snow showers, combined
with scattered to broken low to mid clouds, will also cause
periodic mountain obscurations tonight into Thursday. Otherwise,
look for the breezy westerly winds today to decrease this evening
before increasing and turning out of the northwest Thursday.
Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/068 045/076 053/069 043/081 052/082 050/078 049/080
    56/T    20/B    12/W    00/U    00/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 043/068 040/073 047/069 040/080 049/080 046/078 046/079
    32/T    10/B    00/N    00/B    00/N    01/U    01/N
HDN 038/068 041/075 048/068 040/079 047/082 046/077 045/080
    26/T    20/B    15/T    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 035/068 041/075 048/065 040/075 047/080 047/075 046/078
    01/E    20/B    47/T    00/U    00/N    21/B    01/B
4BQ 033/066 042/071 048/064 039/074 046/079 047/074 045/077
    03/T    20/B    37/T    20/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
BHK 027/064 037/071 044/063 036/071 043/079 043/073 042/076
    01/B    10/B    15/W    00/B    00/N    01/B    11/B
SHR 034/063 037/069 042/064 036/074 042/078 042/074 041/076
    26/T    30/B    35/T    10/U    00/N    02/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings