283
FXUS65 KBYZ 051920
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
120 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms until sunset;
  drier and warmer on Friday.

- Breezy northwest winds this weekend; gusts 30-40 mph east of
  Billings.

- Warmer (highs in 80s to near 90F) early next week.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases next Tuesday,
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Friday night...

Satellite imagery shows cyclonic northerly flow remaining over the
region. An upstream shortwave is dropping thru western MT and will
provide a period of modest synoptic ascent over the next several
hours. Further north a stronger Pacific flow can be see surging
into BC/AB, which is noteworthy as it will translate to downslope
warming in our region tomorrow. In the meantime, look for
isolated/scattered showers and a few weak t-storms from now
through sunset. Mesoanalysis shows 100-250 j/kg of MLCape
materializing, and local radar shows popcorn showers and a few
lightning strikes, especially over Sheridan County and the higher
terrain of southeast MT. Mid level winds are non-existent and
convection is moving very slowly. This includes over the Bighorns
where boundary layer winds are light northeasterly, and showers
started developing early (around 10am). Rainfall rates are not
high enough to be of concern to the Elk Fire burn scar, but
nonetheless something to keep an eye on for the remainder of the
afternoon. The probability of rainfall of 0.25" or more ranges
from 20% at Sheridan to 45% over the higher elevations.

Activity will die off this evening and dry wx will persist through
Friday morning. There is a low risk (20%) of localized fog in
Fallon and Carter from ~09-14z. By tomorrow afternoon, look for
isolated weak convection over/near the Bighorns, while the
remainder of the forecast area is dry & warmer. Friday night will
be dry as we await next Canadian clipper, and w/ downslope
gradients tightening a bit we will see some wind along the western
foothills and an overall warmer night.

Tonight will be another seasonably chilly night with lows in the
upper 30s and 40s. Highs tomorrow should reach the mid 70s to
around 80F. Look for lows Friday night in the mid 40s to upper
50s.

JKL

Saturday through Thursday...

This weekend, a 500 mb low will move to our east bringing breezy
conditions. Much of the region will see wind gusts over 30 mph
with the best chance (50-80%) of seeing a gust over 40 mph being
along the Dakotas border. Temperatures will be in the high 70s F
Saturday before decreasing about 5 degrees along the Dakotas
border Sunday while remaining steady elsewhere. After the trough
moves out of the region, above average heights return to southeast
Montana bringing temperatures 10-15 degrees above average and dry
conditions. The NBM is giving locations east of Billings a 50-70%
chance of seeing a temperature over 90 F Tuesday.

Deterministic models and ensemble systems are indicating a more
active pattern starting Wednesday next week leading to frequent
precipitation chances and lower temperatures. Not much can be
said about these systems yet due to disagreement in what exactly
the pattern will look like. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect isolated to scattered showers and a few weak t-storms thru
sunset this evening. Greatest chance of TS and brief reductions to
MVFR are at KSHR (30% chance). Mountains will be occasionally
obscured. Look for clearing tonight, with localized fog possible
near the Dakotas border (potentially impacting KBHK & K77M between
09-14z). Friday will be dry with west winds gusting near 20 knots
along the western foothills. Cannot rule out a few showers over
the Bighorns again tomorrow afternoon. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/078 056/079 052/077 051/085 057/090 059/084 056/078
    20/U    01/B    10/B    00/U    02/T    34/T    55/T
LVM 039/076 048/079 046/077 048/084 053/086 053/078 050/076
    20/U    00/B    10/U    00/U    13/T    46/T    66/T
HDN 045/079 052/079 050/076 047/085 052/091 056/085 055/079
    20/U    01/B    20/U    00/U    11/U    34/T    55/T
MLS 048/080 055/079 051/075 048/082 054/091 059/088 057/080
    20/U    01/B    20/U    00/U    11/U    33/T    54/T
4BQ 045/075 053/078 051/070 048/079 052/087 058/085 056/078
    20/U    01/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    22/T    44/T
BHK 042/075 051/077 045/071 043/077 048/086 054/084 053/077
    20/U    01/N    10/N    00/U    00/U    22/T    43/T
SHR 040/074 048/076 046/072 045/079 049/086 052/083 051/076
    32/T    01/U    20/U    00/U    12/T    24/T    45/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings