142
FXUS65 KBYZ 231519
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
919 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Comfortable temps into next week.

- Very little chance of precipitation through next Wednesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms return next Thursday and
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dry NW flow aloft with easterly surface winds will keep our
weather quiet/dry today, with slightly cooler than normal temps.
There is an area of lower clouds over southeast MT and have made
adjustments to sky grids to account for this. Otherwise, forecast
is in good shape. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...

Northwest flow will continue to provide dry and comfortable
conditions through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the
70s to low 80s today and Sunday. Another back door front will pass
through northeast MT this evening, brining gusty northeast winds
(20-35 mph) to the higher hills. Smoke from wildfires to the
south and west is not expected to reach the surface with easterly
low level winds in place. Smoke should remain aloft giving way to
hazy conditions across the region. TS

Monday through Friday...

Confidence remains high for a quiet period of weather through
the first half of next week as an upper ridge axis persists
to our west. This places NW flow over our region with easterly
surface winds. This will keep most convection suppressed, and
temps on the cool side. Look for slightly cooler than normal
temps initially, rising to near or a bit above normal by midweek.
Monsoon moisture over the 4-corners and great basin may manage
to slip far enough north for isolated weak diurnal convection
over the mountains.

Ensembles and cluster analyses do agree on a surge of monsoon
moisture from the southwest along with weak shortwave slipping
into our area by next Thursday & Friday. PWATS are progged to
increase and reach above normal (0.75-1.00"). It would appear this
is the next real chance of precipitation for lower elevations.
Very weak wind shear should keep convection non-severe, but the
moisture and slow storm motion could yield locally heavy rain.
With the increasing potential for showers we should see a
corresponding trend down in temps by the end of next week. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
period. Expect slant range visibility to be reduced at times due
to regional wildfire smoke. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 052/081 051/082 053/085 058/084 059/082 058/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    23/W    22/T
LVM 082 044/081 045/082 047/083 050/082 051/077 050/080
    0/U 00/B    01/U    12/W    24/W    45/T    33/T
HDN 081 048/081 048/083 049/086 055/086 057/083 056/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W    32/W
MLS 077 048/076 049/079 051/085 056/087 058/084 058/082
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    21/B
4BQ 076 049/075 050/078 052/083 058/084 058/082 058/079
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T    32/W
BHK 074 043/073 045/077 049/082 053/084 054/083 055/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 046/078 046/079 048/082 053/081 053/078 052/078
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    34/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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