094
FXUS65 KBYZ 050619
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1119 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another brief period of snow is forecast Wednesday. In the
  Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy mountains, 2-6 inches of snow is
  forecast. Over the rest of the area, generally less than an
  inch of snow is forecast.

- Snow is likely (70% chance) Thursday night through Friday night;
  1 to 3 inches expected at lower elevations.

- Below normal temperatures expected for at least the next 10-14
  days.
&&

.UPDATE...

Made some changes to the low temperature forecast tonight based on
observations. Lowered temperatures for elevations below 6,500ft
and raised temperatures above 6,500ft. LT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Thursday Afternoon...

The light snow showers that occurred this morning over south-
central Montana continue to decrease this afternoon. After a brief
dry period across the area this evening and night, the chance of
snow increases once again Wednesday across much of the region
(15-80 percent chance, highest in south-central Montana and lowest
in far south- eastern Montana). The best chance of snow with this
comes along a weak cold front that will drop through the region
during the day. With that said, snow totals are not expected to
be very high through Wednesday. In the Beartooth/Absaroka and
Crazy Mountains, generally 2-6 inches of snow is forecast. Across
the rest of the area, less than an inch is forecast. By Wednesday
night into Thursday, dry conditions will return to the area
outside of isolated light snow continuing in the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains.

Temperatures will gradually increase Wednesday into Thursday, but
will remain below normal. The warmest temperatures during this
time will exist in the foothills. One place to watch this evening
into tonight is Judith Gap where wind chills could hover around
-25F. With that said, winds are expected to taper off tonight and
 limit the wind chill threat in this area.

Over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, strong winds are expected
to continue tonight into Wednesday. With snow on the ground and a
low level inversion in place, these strong winds should remain in
the mountains and not move over foothill locations like Red Lodge
during the day Wednesday. With that said, Livingston looks to be
breezy with westerly wind gusts around 40 mph forecast during the
day Wednesday. With this, patchy blowing snow is possible. Winds
look to stay increased over the foothills west of Billings
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Patchy blowing snow is
possible during this time as well.

The ongoing Winter Storm Warning for the Beartooth/Absaroka and
Crazy Mountains remains in effect until 5 PM MST Wednesday. While
there is a break in the snow this afternoon and evening,
additional snow mixed with blowing snow from strong winds will
continue to create hazardous conditions into the day tomorrow.
Arends


Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Thursday night into Friday morning will feature the warmest
overnight lows for the whole week as this will be a brief
transition period where the nonstop cold air advection eases
slightly. Outside of the far eastern plains, lows should be in
the single digits above zero with some areas in the mountains
only getting down onto the teens. The heavy cloud cover could also
aid in keeping temps slightly warmer. There is a possibility
still that some of the lower lying valleys could stay colder as
pockets cold air could remain trapped.

The next system moves in Friday morning as a shortwave trough
rapidly moves in from the west bringing with it some Pacific
moisture. Light to moderate snow will persist in the mountains,
especially in the Absaroka/Beartooths, where they could
accumulate up to 6" per day through the weekend. The lower
elevations will also get another round of snow Friday. The hills
around Billings should see the greatest totals outside of the
mountains. The 700mb winds are forecast to be westerly which
should cast a downsloping "snow shadow" in some of the western
foothills. Places like Livingston could only see another inch or
two while the previously mentioned hills could pick up 5" with
the city itself getting 3-4" by midday Saturday.

On the heels of the snow chances a reinforcing shot of cold air
spills into the area from the north. Similar to this past
weekend, this will be a situation where this cold air is mostly
confined to the PBL. Overnight lows will not be as chilly over the
weekend compared to last. There will be heavy cloud cover over
the entire CWA which should limit any additional radiational
cooling Friday through Sunday night.

While blowing snow will be a consistent hazard in the mountains,
there are two instances in the lower elevations where blowing
snow could become an issue. Friday evening through Saturday
morning as the cold air advects in from the north and we are
getting some fresh snow to fall, gusty winds could blow snow
around making for hazardous travel conditions. Later in the day
Saturday, as 700mb winds shift to more westerly, some mix
down/gaping is possible near Harlowton which could create some
blowing and drifting snow along US-191. That being said though,
due to the strong inversion present, the latter of these two
scenarios may not end up materializing.

The start of the work week will once again see cooling temps as
the cold air stays fully entrenched in the PBL. With the cloud
cover clearing out we will being to see a larger diurnal range
where highs could be in the lows 20`s for the Billings area with
lows in the single digits below zero. Farther north around places
like Miles City, Baker, as well as over to Harlowton, overnight
wind chills could dip below -20F Monday morning. These cold temps
will likely stick around for the majority of next week with some
signs of a slight "warm up" towards the middle of the month. WMR

&&

.AVIATION...


05Z Update

Flurries are possible across the region as low stratus continues
through the morning. A frontal passage will move through Wednesday
morning (12Z in the west) through mid afternoon in the east.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible for sites under any light snow.
Confidence is lower at KBIL and KSHR for the occurrence of snow.
Isolated light snow showers will continue through the afternoon
and dissipate into the evening. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 005 906/013 003/027 009/016 001/026 007/024 002/013
    1/M 15/S    20/B    38/S    71/B    22/S    33/S
LVM 016 907/032 011/033 015/021 008/026 010/026 004/018
    1/E 16/S    21/Q    48/S    41/B    22/S    32/S
HDN 009 905/012 902/024 007/017 903/026 002/024 902/013
    1/M 14/S    30/B    38/S    81/B    22/S    44/S
MLS 008 901/011 905/012 000/016 001/017 902/015 906/007
    0/M 02/S    10/U    05/S    70/B    01/B    11/M
4BQ 011 001/014 003/023 007/021 004/023 004/022 902/012
    0/B 01/E    20/U    27/S    71/B    01/B    11/M
BHK 003 904/013 906/015 904/015 901/015 903/014 909/006
    0/B 03/S    00/U    15/S    72/S    00/B    11/M
SHR 015 901/025 002/033 007/023 000/026 002/025 903/015
    0/E 02/O    20/B    38/S    81/M    12/S    23/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Wednesday FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings