013
FXUS65 KBYZ 120839
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
139 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures continue through Friday; a few
  daily record highs may be approached Thursday and Friday.

- Strong winds along the western foothills Thursday night and
  Friday; impacts to travel on I-90 through Livingston.

- Weak Pacific system brings cooler (but not cold) temps and
  scattered showers Friday afternoon into Saturday; temps remain
  warmer than normal through the weekend.

- There is potential for a cooler and wetter weather system next
  Monday and Tuesday, but high uncertainty exists at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Satellite imagery shows broad/dry ridging, with increasing high
clouds from the west ahead of a deepening trof off the Pacific
coast. Other than the spectacular aurora it`s been a quiet night.

Much above normal temps will continue through Friday as we remain
under the influence of strong ridging. Friday`s Pacific cold front
looks to arrive late in the day, thus the trend upward in temps on
Friday. Look for highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s today, then 60s
to near 70F as the ridge axis shifts east and opens the door to
further warming from the SW (700mb temps to +4C are noteworthy).
Friday is largely pre-frontal with highs again in the 60s to near
70F (coolest in the west as precip chances begin to increase).
Record highs are achievable at Billings & Miles City tomorrow.

With the slower arriving Pacific cold front, confidence is growing
for a period of strong gap flow along the foothills from late
Thursday into Friday. Southwesterly 700mb winds increase to 50+
knots as downslope gradients tighten (up to ~12mb from IDA-LWT by
Friday morning). There is a 80% chance of 50+ mph gusts at
Livingston and Nye, and a 50% chance of 60+ mph gusts. Mixing on
Friday will yield gusty winds across all western foothills.
Something else to consider: the WSW mid level winds could support
a risk of pre-frontal mountain wave activity at Red Lodge and
Sheridan by Friday evening (depending on frontal timing).

Western mountains should see a few inches of snow late Friday into
Saturday (50% chance of 4+ inches), while lower elevations see
light showers (0.10" or less, mostly less) with the upper trof
passage. Saturday into Sunday look dry as flat ridging rebuilds.
Weekend temps will definitely be cooler but still warmer than
normal with highs in the 50s.

Forecast for the first part of next week remains highly uncertain
as there look to be complex interactions over not only the far
western conus but also upstream in the north Pacific. A reminder
that former Typhoon Fung-Wong (currently near Taiwan) will lift to
the Aleutians this weekend and jolt the long wave pattern across
the north Pacific.

Cut off low over southern CA this weekend is expected to be kicked
to the northeast as the next Pacific trof drops along the west
coast. These disturbances may attempt to phase together next
Monday/Tuesday, possibly bringing a period of ascent/precipitation
to our region. Or, the flow may remain too split for this to
occur. It is interesting that the 11/12z cluster analyses show
higher probabilities of the wetter/cooler scenarios. Ensemble
spread remains quite high regarding precip, but there is
confidence for temps closer to mid November normals (if not a bit
cooler). It is also possible our lower elevations see the first
measurable snow of the fall. Right now, there is a 35% of 0.1" or
more of snow at Billings. Regarding precip itself, there is a
25-40% chance of 0.25" or more during the 2-day period. For temps,
look for highs in the 40s Monday then upper 30s to mid 40s
Tuesday...again with plenty of uncertainty. Stay tuned.

JKL

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 043/068 049/066 040/057 034/055 034/049 030/043
    0/B 00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    23/W    43/W
LVM 064 040/067 048/060 039/055 034/055 033/050 028/042
    0/B 00/N    14/W    31/B    01/B    34/W    53/J
HDN 061 036/070 042/068 037/057 031/057 031/048 028/043
    0/B 00/U    01/B    41/E    00/B    23/W    43/W
MLS 056 034/066 039/066 035/053 030/053 030/045 027/040
    0/B 00/U    00/B    20/B    00/B    12/W    22/W
4BQ 060 038/068 041/068 037/054 032/055 032/046 029/041
    0/B 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/B    12/W    22/W
BHK 056 034/066 039/067 032/050 026/051 028/044 024/039
    0/B 00/U    00/B    20/B    00/B    12/W    21/E
SHR 062 035/069 038/069 032/055 029/055 030/049 025/043
    0/B 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/B    23/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings