602
FXUS65 KBYZ 100733
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
133 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with highs in the lower 90s today.

- Strong Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and
  scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning.

- Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s.

- Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night...

Residual convection looks to be out of the area by sunrise today.
What follows is a mostly sunny and dry day. High temperatures have
crept upward for today over the past few model runs, into the low
to mid 90s for many areas. This warming trend is in part due to
the lack of cloud cover but also the dry air in place to start the
day. Will see moisture levels increase some ahead of the cold
front that is expected to arrive early to mid evening. The frontal
passage doesn`t look subtle with a strong push of northerly winds.
850mb winds push above 40kts in spots as the front moves into the
area. don`t think surface gusts will be that strong for most of
the area as the evening frontal timing brings the nocturnal
inversion development into play which will likely hold strongest
winds aloft. That said gusts of 20 to 30 mph seem reasonable as
the front moves through.

The cooler temperatures with this cold front have been consistent
over the past few days. What has changed is how much drier this
system has become over time. At this point most areas north of a
Livingston to Miles City line may see very little precipitation
and foothills zones where the best moisture looks to fall are
looking at closer to 0.15 inches compared to close to half an inch
in the models several days ago. Precipitation chances remain in
the 30 to 60 percent tonight, with strongest probabilities over
the upslope oriented northern foothills. Snow levels have also
risen over the past few days, now showing Saturday morning levels
around 12kft, above the Beartooth Pass. That said those heading
into the high country over the next 48 hours should be prepared
for changing conditions and cold wet conditions Thursday night
into Friday.

Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by
mid to late morning Friday, bringing an end to precipitation
chances. Whats left is a mostly sunny and cool afternoon with high
temperatures mainly in the 70s, and a north to northwest breeze
making it feel even cooler. Not bad for the middle of July, maybe
take the day off and get outside if you can. Chambers

Saturday through Wednesday...

After Friday`s cool down, flat ridging will bring dry & warmer
weather this weekend. Look for temps back to around 90F Saturday
and in the 90s Sunday. Neither day looks particularly windy, but
modestly breezy westerly winds are expected along the western
foothills.

The ridge will give way to the next trof dropping thru western
Canada Monday. This is a day of high uncertainty given issues w/
timing of a cold front. A later fropa would push Monday warmer
than Sunday and perhaps near 100F in the east (probabilities for
reaching triple digits are ~20%). A later fropa would also enhance
pre-frontal mixed winds, while a daytime frontal passage would
bring potentially strong/shifting winds during the peak heating
time. Finally, cannot rule out strong t-storms on Monday depending
on these other factors. Overall in a general sense, look for
increasing chances of showers & t-storms on Monday with the
arrival of a cold front, along with potential fire wx concerns.

Post-frontal cool advection looks to be potent for mid-July, w/ a
1025mb Canadian surface high, and we expect temps in the 70s for
Tuesday & perhaps Wednesday. In fact, the chances of highs NOT
exceeding 70F are non-zero. The greatest potential for precip
(showers w/o t-storms) is Monday night and Tuesday. We are looking
at an open wave and only modest precip, with the chances of 0.10"
or more around 40%. Uncertainty is high at this time, but we also
could see a bit of snow over the highest peaks of the Beartooths.
Something to monitor if you have outdoor plans in the high
country next week.

Overwhelming ensemble consensus is for warmer & drier conditions
by next Thursday. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the region today. Isolated
high-based light showers and a few embedded weak t-storms will
impact mainly eastern areas early this morning until sunrise. This
will be followed by dry conditions and breezy (15-25 knot gusts)
NW winds today. A reinforcing cold front is expected to arrive
this evening, bringing stronger 25-35 knot northerly wind gusts
along with scattered showers and local MVFR flight conditions
tonight. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 059/078 053/092 060/095 063/087 055/075 053/078
    0/U 32/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    33/T    32/W
LVM 088 049/079 047/088 054/092 055/087 049/075 045/079
    1/N 41/U    00/B    00/U    12/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 092 057/077 049/091 056/095 060/088 054/075 051/079
    0/U 43/T    00/B    00/U    11/U    42/W    32/W
MLS 093 058/078 053/090 061/094 064/089 055/075 052/077
    0/U 42/W    00/U    00/U    11/B    42/W    21/U
4BQ 091 059/075 051/088 060/093 064/090 057/072 053/075
    0/U 33/T    00/B    00/U    11/U    42/T    42/W
BHK 092 055/074 048/086 056/091 059/087 052/072 048/074
    0/U 23/T    00/B    00/U    11/U    42/W    22/W
SHR 088 052/071 045/087 054/092 058/087 051/072 048/077
    1/U 35/T    00/U    00/U    12/T    34/T    43/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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