978
FXUS65 KBYZ 192009
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
209 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild much of next week.

- Next chance of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday...

A dry zonal flow will continue to prevail across our region
through the weekend. Westerly wind in the Livingston to Big
Timber area has been gusting over 40 mph this afternoon (peaked
at 56 mph at Livingston this morning)...but the pressure gradient
is progged to weaken into the evening along with 700mb winds. So
while we expect winds to remain somewhat elevated in the foothills
at times, it should certainly be weaker with gusts more common in
the 25 to 35 mph range overnight and through Sunday. Winds may
pick up again Sunday night into Monday as 700 mb winds increase to
over 30kts and the pressure gradient also tightens a bit again as
upper low to our south ejects eastward to the plains.

Temps will peak in the 60s today and jump into the 70s at most
locations on Sunday. The chance of precipitation will remain zero.
BT

Monday night through Saturday...

A mostly dry cold front will move through the region Monday
night. Ahead of the front, breezy conditions will exist over the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains. With the front, winds will shift out
of the northwest with gusts around 15 to 30 mph overnight,
strongest east of Billings and along the western foothills. The
front is currently forecast to be through the region by 6am
Tuesday, so Tuesday during the day is not forecast to be windy
outside of 15 to 30 mph gusts in the mountains.

While the front is forecast to be mostly dry, there is
uncertainty in the precipitation forecast behind the front. At
this time, the National Blend of Models (NBM) does have a low
chance of precipitation across the area on Tuesday (15-30%). These
probabilities have decreased over the last two model cycles
though. While the majority of members in the GFS and Canadian
ensembles continue to show no precipitation, the majority of
members in the ECMWF ensemble show light precipitation. Even with
this uncertainty, the pattern does not support widespread heavy
precipitation, so if any precipitation does develop it will be
light.

Weak ridging looks to build back in on Wednesday allowing
temperatures to warm back up from the upper 50s to lowers 60s
Tuesday to mid 60s to 70 degF Wednesday and Thursday. Another weak
system is possible by the end of the week with no strong upper
level pattern in place, but uncertainty remains. Arends
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the region over the next 24 hours, under
occasional high clouds. Winds along the western foothills will be
breezy at times. Expect westerly gusts of 25-35 knots at KLVM. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/072 047/074 045/060 036/065 042/067 042/070 040/065
    00/U    00/B    12/W    10/U    11/U    00/B    11/B
LVM 038/072 041/070 036/062 031/066 037/069 039/068 035/064
    00/U    00/N    22/W    10/U    21/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 038/073 040/076 042/062 033/065 036/067 037/072 036/067
    00/U    00/U    22/W    20/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 041/073 040/075 042/058 032/062 035/064 037/068 037/064
    00/U    00/U    11/B    20/U    11/U    00/U    10/U
4BQ 040/073 040/075 043/061 034/064 038/066 039/072 039/066
    00/U    00/U    01/B    20/U    11/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 040/073 040/075 040/057 029/062 033/064 034/067 035/063
    00/U    00/U    01/B    10/U    11/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 036/073 038/076 036/064 031/066 035/070 037/073 036/068
    00/U    00/U    12/W    20/U    11/U    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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