723
FXUS65 KBYZ 230128
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
628 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through the weekend; warmer than normal
  temperatures expected through next week.

- Strong southwest to west winds along the foothills west of
  Billings tonight into Monday; expect hazardous crosswinds on
  portions of I-90 and US-191.

- The prolonged warm spell will likely produce significant
  snowmelt onto frozen ground. This may result in significant
  ponding of water, the potential for overland flooding, and ice
  jam development/release on creeks and streams as early as this
  weekend, continuing next week. For more information, check the
  posted Hydrologic Outlook.


&&

.6pm MST UPDATE...

No major changes regarding tonight`s forecast. Gap winds in
Livingston and the foothills are expected to get going shortly.
With a strong very low inversion, an impressive IDA to LWT
pressure gradient, and decent 700mb winds, it is possible that
some gusts over 70 mph could occur after midnight. POPs from Sun
AM through Mon AM have been raised in the central and eastern
parts of the CWA. The shortwave transporting pacific moisture
looks better in the most recent model runs than previously. Areas
near Treasure Co. look to have the best chance to see some rain,
however, all of the CWA will likely see at least sprinkles of
rain over the period.
WMR

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday Night...

A weak shortwave trough at 500 mb is moving across the Northern
Rockies this afternoon. This trough is contributing to cloud cover
to much of the area and could bring a few isolated snow showers
(15% chance) to the mountains this afternoon but any accumulation
would be less than one inch.

Tonight, 500 mb shortwave ridging will move over the area with a
brief period of mostly clear skies this evening and diminishing
snow showers in the mountains. Clouds will then increase from west
to east late tonight as the 500 mb shortwave ridge exits to the
east and flow becomes more zonal/westerly, bringing increased
moisture aloft.

Sunday will be cloudy with isolated rain showers east of Billings
(20% chance) and isolated-scattered snow showers in the western
mountains (20-50% chance, greatest in the Beartooth/Absaroka
Mountains).

Sunday night, a 500 mb shortwave trough will move eastward from
the Pacific Northwest to MT, bringing a greater chance (20-60%
chance, greatest in Park County), of rain showers to the lower
elevations mainly in south central MT but also extending to
northwestern Custer and northwestern Powder River Counties.
Rainfall amounts in the lower elevations should be less than 0.10
inches. Snow showers are likely in the western mountains (60-80%
chance), with accumulation reaching 3 to 11 inches by Monday
morning.

Foothill winds...

It will be windy throughout the short term and into the long
term. Wind gusts in the the 50s mph will be common for foothills
locations west of Billings. Winds in the Livingston and Nye areas
could gust into the 60s and 70s mph. The strongest winds are
expected tonight into tomorrow morning with foothills locations
gusting 50-70 mph. Livingston has a 55% chance of getting a gust
over 70 mph, Big Timber has a 35% chance, and Harlowton a 25%
chance. Winds will weaken slightly during the day Sunday while
remaining very strong gusting into the 50s and 60s mph. More
information on continued strong winds in the long term.

Mountain winds...

Winds in the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains could gust to 70-80 mph
Sunday into Sunday night, especially in the northeastern portion
of the mountains, due to mountain wave activity.

Temperatures...

Temperatures will warm tomorrow into the mid 40s to low 50s. This
warming will continue our snowmelt across the region. Snowpack
temperatures are still in the 20s F acting to limit snowmelt for
now for most of the area. Snowmelt will likely accelerate over
the next few days however as the chance for above freezing low
temperatures is greater than 50% for much of the region tonight.
This is a trend that will continue over the next few days acting
to greatly increase snowmelt. With this comes the potential for
ice jams leading to localized river rises and ponding of water.
Torgerson/RMS


Monday through Saturday...

The early part of the work week will see ridging across the
region with normal to above normal temps. While periods of strong
wind are likely to continue in the western foothills (Livingston,
Big Timber, Harlowton) through Tuesday, models do indicate some
weakening of the pressure gradient, so winds may not be quite as
strong in the gap locations. There is a hint of wave action in the
700mb flow suggesting strong wind in the high country continuing
from Sunday (70% chance of gusts 75 mph). A high wind warning is
in place for the higher mountains through Monday (outdoor
recreationists beware). Some Pacific moisture working into the
mountains may also produce some light snow Monday over west facing
slopes. Tuesday a short wave moves across the area with snow in
the high country (2-4 inches), rain/snow in the foothills and
scattered showers over the lower elevations with highs in the 40s.
Look for brisk conditions though as gusts to 35 mph may spread
over the lower elevations with the Pacific front.

Wednesday still looks like the start of a quieter period as the
winds die down and ensembles agree that strong ridging prevails
over the western CONUS. The chance of temps over 50 degrees go up
to 60% by the end of the week. BT/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist over the lower elevations through
Sunday. The Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy Mountains will become
obscured in snow tomorrow. The main impact to aviation is wind
along the foothills. Gusts of 30-45 knots will be common, but KLVM
is expected to see gusts in excess of 50 knots and possibly as
high as 60 knots beginning this evening and lasting thru Sunday
morning. Gusts will be lower east of the foothills, but should
reach 25-35 knots at KBIL. Over at KMLS, expect LLWS as surface
winds will be light but with stronger westerly winds at 1-2kft
agl. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/044 037/046 032/045 029/044 031/049 033/049 028/046
    01/N    21/N    23/W    10/U    00/B    10/B    00/B
LVM 032/044 038/046 032/040 024/042 027/049 030/047 027/048
    01/N    61/N    54/W    10/B    01/B    10/B    00/B
HDN 023/046 033/047 027/046 027/047 025/052 030/050 024/050
    02/W    21/B    25/W    10/U    00/B    11/B    00/B
MLS 028/041 035/046 028/047 030/047 029/053 034/049 025/045
    01/N    21/N    13/W    10/U    00/B    10/B    00/B
4BQ 027/046 034/049 029/048 032/047 030/056 035/050 027/048
    01/B    11/B    04/W    10/U    00/U    11/B    00/B
BHK 025/043 031/045 024/043 025/044 025/049 027/045 020/039
    00/N    12/W    14/W    10/U    00/U    11/N    00/B
SHR 024/049 031/051 028/046 024/046 025/056 030/050 023/050
    01/B    11/B    15/W    10/U    00/U    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Monday FOR ZONES
      63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST Monday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
     High Wind Warning in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST
      Monday FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings