825
FXUS65 KBYZ 181954
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
154 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and mainly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday.

- Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday could push over 100 degrees,
  with record highs possible.

- This stretch of warm and dry weather will bring an increased
  risk for wildfires. Take care to avoid causing a spark!

- Cold front will bring a return to seasonable, to slightly below
  normal temperatures Thursday into the end of the week, but
  precipitation chances remain low.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday night...

Short term is dominated by a strong Summer ridge that will bring
hot temperatures to the region over the next several days. Highs
will push into the triple digits for Tuesday and Wednesday over
the lower elevations, challenging record highs each day. Overnight
lows will stay warm, in the 60s to lower 70s, the next several
nights.

Although there will still be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening coming off the higher terrain, the building
ridge and warming mid level temperatures will cap off convection
for the most part Tuesday and Wednesday. Any storms that do form
today will likely produce 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.

A cold front moves intot he area Wednesday night bringing an end
to the heat. Low chances for precipitation/thundestorms will
develop along and behind the front as it moves through the area.

While there will be smoke in the area over the next several days,
mainly from local fires, concentrations are forecast to stay below
levels that cause health concerns or significant visibility
reductions.

Heat health concerns will increase with temperatures heading into
the triple digits for a few days, and with the warm overnight
temperatures limiting relief. Plan to issue heat advisories
starting Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday evening for
central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Those working
or recreating outdoors should be prepared for the heat and have
plans to mitigate health impacts. Go online to Heat.Gov for
information to help keep you safe during this period of dangerous
heat.

Final concern for the short term will be fire weather on
Wednesday. The heat and dryness combined with ongoing fires is a
concern. Current wind forecasts don`t look too bad, but there is a
strong low level jet Wednesday morning that could cause a period
of gusty winds as the atmosphere mixes out, then a shift to
northerly winds in the afternoon as the front moves through.
Certainly not a slam dunk for a Red Flag Warning, but one of those
days to be vigilant as some ingredients are there to cause control
and spread issues for wildfires. Will continue to evaluate the
fire weather potential over the next 24 hours for any changes that
might necessitate fire highlites. Chambers

Thursday through Monday...

Synoptic pattern shows the ridge breaking down Wednesday night
into Thursday, and remaining suppressed on Friday. North to east
low level flow will keep temperatures in the 80s each day,
possibly the low 80s on Friday. Despite the cooler air moving in,
chances for precipitation remain very low across the area. Ridge
rebuilds this weekend to the west of the area with the thermal low
under it continuing to force an easterly wind across the forecast
area. Temperatures in this pattern will slowly warm up through the
weekend but remain below 90 degrees, and precipitation chances
will remain low.

By early next week a Pacific trof drops into the PacNW and pushes
the ridge axis over eastern Montana. This shifts the low level
winds to the south and adds in some downslope flow in the mid
levels helping to boost highs to around 90 degrees (and possibly a
bit warmer) Monday into Tuesday. With the ridge overhead,
precipitation chance stay very low. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin
developing over the Beartooth/Absarokas around 20Z this
afternoon. There is low confidence (10-20% chance) of these
thunderstorms impacting KLVM and KBIL. The main concern with these
storms will be wind gusts 30-40 kts. Estimated timing for these
storms will be around 20Z-00Z for KLVM and 22-02Z at KBIL. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/101 067/101 066/085 059/081 057/084 057/087 059/088
    20/G    00/G    11/U    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 056/098 059/096 056/086 051/082 049/085 051/088 054/087
    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    10/U    11/U    22/T
HDN 063/102 064/101 064/087 058/082 056/086 056/089 058/089
    20/G    00/G    11/U    21/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 067/102 073/103 070/087 059/080 054/080 055/083 058/085
    00/G    00/G    11/U    21/U    10/U    10/U    11/U
4BQ 066/099 073/102 070/087 060/078 056/080 056/082 058/084
    00/U    00/G    11/U    32/W    20/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 064/097 069/101 066/085 054/078 050/076 049/078 051/080
    00/U    00/G    11/U    21/U    10/U    10/U    11/U
SHR 061/097 064/100 063/085 054/080 053/082 053/085 055/085
    20/U    00/U    12/W    32/T    21/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM MDT
      Wednesday FOR ZONES
      29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM MDT
      Wednesday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings