467
FXUS65 KBYZ 301913
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
113 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms east through early evening;
  slight chance west. Isolated thunderstorms Friday east. Hot
  temperatures continue.

- Very hot & dry Saturday with widespread triple digit heat;
  fire weather concerns.

- Weak frontal passages expected both Saturday night and Sunday
  night. Much cooler temps for Monday & Tuesday.

- Increased surface-based smoke may reduce air quality latter half
  of weekend into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 days (through next Wednesday)...

Convective activity in our east this afternoon is expected to
shift into the Dakotas by evening. Heavy rain is our main concern
with these storms, but wet microbursts with gusts to 65 mph are
also possible. Out west, weak forcing and a drying environment
will limit convection to weak isolated cells. Look for highs
topping out in the mid 90s this afternoon.

Low level moisture will decrease tonight into Friday with PWATs
dropping to under an inch across the area. Models suggest a weak
shortwave tracking over the area tonight which may produce an area
of showers and isolated thundershowers overnight into early
Friday across east central Montana, before drifting into our
southeast by midday Friday and maybe into the afternoon.
Otherwise, convective activity Friday looks minimal. Look for high
temps 90s to near 100F Friday.

Significant 700mb thermal ridge exerts itself Saturday. 700b
temps ranging from 16-20C into our region suggest surface temps
over 100F. The chance of at least 105F is highest along the river
valleys from Billings to Miles City (45-60%). The extreme heat
will be a health risk for folks outdoors. We have continued an
Extreme Heat Watch across our lower elevations from noon to
midnight. As an upper trough pushes into the Pacific NW and
northern Rockies late Saturday into Sunday, we will see the upper
ridge suppressed. An associated cold front will push thru Saturday
night. Thus, Sunday will be cooler, but still hot/dry, with
breezy north to northeast winds over the east. A stronger frontal
passage arrives Sunday night setting the stage for notably cooler
days Monday & Tuesday with highs in the 70s for some locations,
along with breezy conditions. Low amplitude ridge comes back by
midweek, and should push temps back to around 90F Wednesday.

A few light showers are possible Monday as upper trough axis
shifts across the region. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail
through the middle of next week.

Fire Weather: The triple digit heat and 10% or less humidity will
elevate fire weather concerns Saturday. Mixed winds will be only
somewhat breezy during the peak heating hours, but with the
extreme temps and possibly single digit RH values, we have opted
to issue a Fire Weather Watch from Yellowstone County westward. We
will go thru Sunday with this as temps will still be in the the
90s and RH still in the teens Sunday afternoon, we may see some
afternoon winds approach marginal criteria. Valid period is 2 pm
Saturday to 9 pm Sunday.

Smoke impacts: Post-frontal subsidence and shift to upslope winds
may yield higher concentrations of surface-based smoke for the
latter half of the weekend into Monday. Reduced air quality is
possible. Something to monitor over the next few days.

Climate tidbits: Smoke permitting, there is a very good chance
that daily records will be broken this Saturday August 1st.
Billings, Livingston & Sheridan may get close monthly (August)
records as well. These are summarized below.

SITE      8/1 FORECAST   8/1 RECORD      AUG RECORD
Billings     105         102 (2008)    105 (8/2/2024)
Livingston   104         101 (2000)    105 (8/5/1961)
Miles City   105         104 (2008)    110 (8/7/1995)
Sheridan     106         103 (2008)    106 (8/7/1983)
Baker        102          99 (2022)    108 (8/12/2018)

BT


.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly over
the mountains and foothills west of KBIL, as well as areas east
of KBIL into the early evening hours. A strong storm or two is
possible over eastern areas, with wind gusts of 40-50 kts the main
threat. VFR will prevail through the period with local MVFR
conditions with thunderstorms. Smoke from distant wildfires will
continue to reduce slant range visibility at times. STP/PM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/098 064/104 069/095 060/077 052/080 056/090 061/092
    21/U    00/G    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 057/095 057/102 060/094 050/078 044/079 048/090 054/090
    20/K    00/G    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 062/098 061/105 067/098 058/080 050/082 054/092 059/094
    22/T    00/G    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 062/098 064/104 071/096 061/080 052/080 056/092 063/093
    12/T    00/G    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 060/095 064/100 071/097 063/082 054/081 058/092 064/094
    12/T    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 057/094 061/101 066/098 060/083 049/079 052/089 059/093
    12/W    00/G    00/U    10/N    10/U    10/U    21/U
SHR 056/094 058/101 064/099 057/082 048/082 052/090 057/092
    12/T    00/G    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
      Saturday evening FOR ZONES
      29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
      Sunday evening FOR ZONES 117-123>128.
WY...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
      Saturday evening FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings