835
FXUS65 KBYZ 261909
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
109 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday.

- Highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday-Monday, with low chances
  for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

- Warmer (upper 80s/low 90s) with better chances (30 to 60
  percent) for showers and thunderstorms next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

The rest of today through Friday night...

A shortwave in the upper level flow will bring isolated to
scattered (20-40% chance) showers and thunderstorms across much of
the region through this evening. MUCAPE values are only around
500-1000 J/kg, PWATs are near normal, and shear is to around
30-35 kts. However, model soundings show an inverted-V, which is
favorable for stronger winds with any thunderstorms. As a result,
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 1 of
5) along the northern portion of the CWA for today. The main
threat is wind gusts up to 65 mph and the best timing for strong
to severe thunderstorms is through 9 PM tonight. Overnight, a low
level jet will keep a low chance (10-20%) of showers and
thunderstorms over the east.

For Friday, a trough will begin to move through Canada/northern
MT, with most of the energy remaining north of the CWA. The best
MUCAPE and shear will be over the southeast from Sheridan County
WY to the Dakota border, but PWATs are expected to be slightly
lower. The main threat with any storms will again be strong winds.
While severe storms are less likely than today, one or two strong
to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Archer


Saturday through Thursday...

Extended period starts off with zonal westerly flow aloft. By
Monday afternoon an amplifying ridge builds over the PacNW into
western Montana dipping northwest flow east of the divide. This
time of year this pattern develops a thermal low to the west that
works to draw in plains moisture on southeast low level winds. As
a result of the above patterns, will see low chances for afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms Saturday into Monday,
increasing to scattered/numerous coverage with heavier
accumulation chances Tuesday into Thursday. The best chances for
significant precipitation will be from Billings east, but
especially over SE Montana where Precipitable Water (PWAT) values
are highest.

High temperatures Saturday/Sunday will be in the lower to mid
80s, becoming mid to upper 80s with some lower 90s for the rest of
the extended forecast period.

Starting to see hints the Summer Monsoon is beginning to take
shape by mid to late next week. This feature is being advertised
in the WPC 6 to 14 day precipitation forecasts. The Summer Monsoon
enhances the afternoon/evening precipitation chances through the
Summer over the Rocky Mountain and Great Basin states. It can also
bring a lot of lightning and dry thunderstorm activity to enhance
wildfires. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected from
20z-05z today, spreading from west to east. Main threat will be
wind gusts to 50kts near and ahead of any thunderstorms. Local
MVFR conditions can be expected near precipitation areas. Patchy
fog is possible over central river valleys after 10z tonight, a
bit more widespread over SE Montana. Expect visibilities under a
mile at times near the MT/Dakotas line, with 3 to 6 mile
visibilities most likely elsewhere. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the forecast area through tonight. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/085 059/083 058/083 057/088 061/092 062/087 061/085
    22/B    31/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 050/083 050/081 049/081 049/086 054/090 056/085 054/083
    23/T    21/U    10/U    00/U    02/T    34/T    34/T
HDN 055/087 058/084 055/084 055/090 060/094 061/089 060/086
    21/B    31/B    21/U    00/U    11/U    32/T    43/T
MLS 059/088 062/085 058/085 057/089 061/093 064/090 062/087
    31/B    41/B    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    42/T
4BQ 060/087 061/084 059/082 057/087 061/090 064/089 062/083
    20/U    10/U    31/U    10/U    11/U    22/T    32/T
BHK 058/088 058/084 055/082 053/083 056/087 059/086 059/083
    21/U    21/U    10/U    00/U    10/U    22/T    33/T
SHR 054/086 054/083 052/080 052/085 055/089 056/085 056/082
    11/B    11/U    22/T    11/U    11/U    23/T    34/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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