977
FXUS65 KBYZ 210931
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
231 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through the weekend; warmer than normal
  temps expected through next week.

- Areas of localized blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility
  expected along the western foothills through this morning.

- Strong southwest to west winds along the western foothills
  tonight into Monday; expect hazardous crosswinds on portions of
  I-90 and US-191.

- The prolonged warm spell will likely produce significant
  snowmelt onto frozen ground. This may result in significant
  ponding of water, the potential for overland flooding, and ice
  jam development/release on creeks and streams as early as this
  weekend, continuing next week. For more information, check the
  posted Hydrologic Outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

Blowing Snow...

This morning has the potential for patchy blowing snow for the
western foothills before noon. High temperatures were in the mid
30s F for many of these areas yesterday helping to suppress
potential. However, with a deep snowpack and winds gusting into
the 30s and 40s mph, patchy blowing snow will remain possible.

Foothills Winds...

The foothills pressure gradient will increase throughout the day
today with the GFS indicating the gradient getting over 10mb.
700mb winds will remain light for Livingston and Big Timber
helping to keep winds down. Harlowton will have 700mb winds near
40kts leading to stronger winds. Livingston and Big Timber have a
less than 20% chance of getting a wind gust over 50 mph with
Harlowton having a 40% chance. Saturday will see 700mb winds pick
up becoming near 50 kts by Saturday night. The foothills pressure
gradient will continue to increase leading to all locations having
a greater than 50% chance for a wind gust over 50 mph during the
day Saturday. Strongest winds will be Saturday night into Sunday
morning with all locations having a greater than 50% chance for a
wind gust over 60 mph.

Temperatures/Precipitation

Upper level ridging will bring temperatures to near normal values
in the mid 30s to low 40s F. This downsloping flow will keep the
region dry over the next few days. These temperatures will keep
melting the regions deep snowpack leading to ponding of water and
potential for ice jams. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow
night will remain below freezing helping to reduce snowmelt.
Torgerson


Sunday through Friday...

The long-term forecast remains active with warm temperatures,
strong winds, and multiple quick moving weather systems. The
strong winds will make travel difficult at times, especially over
the foothills west of Billings, and the warm temperatures will
lead to significant snowmelt. Make sure to stay weather aware and
update to date with the latest forecast during this time.

Gusty to strong winds can be expected for the western foothills
Sunday into Monday, with tight pressure gradients and 40-50 kts
at 700 mb. Wind gusts of 50-70 mph are possible, strongest at
Livingston and Nye. Expect increased winds to continue through
early next week across much of the area as multiple weather
systems with strong winds aloft move through the region bringing
wind gusts of 30-40 mph. Several inches of snow are possible for
the west aspects of the southwest mountains Sunday through Tuesday
as moisture streams into the region from the west. Elsewhere, a
rain/snow mix (20-30% chance) may spread out onto the foothills
and plains at times, but precipitation is expected to be light.
High temperatures are forecast to range from the 30s to 40s most
days, with a few locations topping out near 50 degrees. Low
temperatures at night look to range from the 20s and 30s, with the
warmest nights likely Sunday and Monday night, when most locations
across the lower elevations look to stay above freezing.

A prolonged period of snowmelt is expected to occur this weekend
through next week. With this, the initial snowmelt will likely
occur over frozen ground. This could lead to significant ponding
of water, the potential for overland flooding, and ice jam
development/release on creeks and streams. Those with interests
along waterways or in flood prone areas should prepare for
potential impacts now. STP


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR will prevail through the period, under building high pressure
aloft. Westerly wind gusts of 25-35 knots will bring a risk of
localized blowing snow/reduced visibility to the western foothills
through this morning. As surface temperatures rise into the middle
30s, the threat should dissipate. Airports which could be
impacted include KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ. SW to W winds increase further
tonight along the western foothills with wind gusts of 40-50 kts
expected near KLVM. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037 027/041 033/045 038/047 034/046 033/044 029/047
    0/U 00/N    01/N    21/N    14/R    21/N    00/U
LVM 039 025/043 033/045 038/047 034/042 025/042 025/047
    0/Q 00/N    02/O    42/R    25/O    10/N    00/U
HDN 038 016/043 026/046 034/049 029/048 031/046 023/050
    0/U 00/B    01/E    22/R    14/O    21/B    00/U
MLS 034 021/039 030/044 036/049 030/048 032/044 027/050
    0/U 10/B    01/N    11/N    02/O    21/B    00/U
4BQ 038 021/042 028/047 035/051 031/051 033/044 028/052
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/N    02/R    31/N    00/U
BHK 034 018/040 025/045 032/049 025/048 026/042 022/047
    0/U 00/N    00/N    11/N    03/O    31/N    00/U
SHR 039 017/045 025/051 033/052 029/050 026/044 022/052
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/N    04/O    31/N    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from late tonight through Monday
      afternoon FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
      Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings