803
FXUS65 KBYZ 192231
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
431 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief return of smoke and hazy skies today.

- Drier conditions today through Friday.

- Seasonal temps in the 80s to lower 90s the rest of the week.
  Increasing chance of precipitation over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

A weak ridge over the Pacific NW is set to make its way into the
region over the next couple days bringing warm and mostly dry
conditions. Smoke is expected to slightly increase today across
southeast MT, but impacts to the surface will be minimal. Weak
energy riding over the ridge will provide small precipitation
chances for area mountains Thursday evening (less than 10%). Into
Saturday, troughing begins to move up into the Pacific northwest,
putting the region into southwest flow aloft and southeasterly at
the lower levels. Weak energy moving up through southwest flow as
well as increasing atmospheric moisture looks to bring low to
moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening. There is some uncertainty on the coverage of these
thunderstorms, especially with the lack of forcing. With ensembles
showing precipitable water values being 100-200% of normal, it
will be something to watch. As troughing moves through the
northern part of the state Sunday, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected. With breezy conditions expected with
these frontal passages and drying behind the front Sunday, timing
will be something to watch, especially for potential fire weather
concerns. Small chances for afternoon showers exist for mountains
along the MT/WY border as monsoonal moisture works its way in
under weak ridging early next week. Around seasonal temperatures
in the 80s to low 90s will persist through the period. TS

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Discussion...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 36
hours. Thermal wind gusts this afternoon to 25kts will quickly
tape off 00-02z. An area of moderate smoke concentration over
northern Montana will sag south into our area through tonight,
diminishing as it does so. Expect slant range visibility
restrictions to increase tonight, but at this time surface
visibility reductions below 6sm are not anticipated. Smoke
concentration should continue to diminish during the day Thursday.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/093 063/091 064/090 064/093 061/087 061/089 062/091
    00/K    00/U    01/B    21/B    20/U    11/B    21/B
LVM 050/093 056/093 056/087 054/087 050/085 050/086 051/087
    00/U    00/U    04/T    53/T    11/U    22/T    42/T
HDN 055/094 059/093 061/094 061/096 058/089 057/091 058/093
    00/K    00/U    01/B    21/B    20/U    11/B    21/B
MLS 059/091 062/090 062/091 066/096 063/088 060/089 062/092
    00/K    00/U    00/B    21/B    10/U    00/U    21/U
4BQ 060/092 063/093 063/090 066/094 063/089 061/089 062/092
    00/K    00/B    01/B    42/W    20/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 055/090 057/091 055/088 060/091 058/089 055/089 056/091
    00/K    00/B    00/N    32/T    20/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 053/091 058/092 058/091 060/091 056/087 055/088 055/090
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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