135
FXUS65 KBYZ 092120
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
320 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Slight chance of showers
  Friday over southern Montana & northern Wyoming (10-20 percent).

- Weather system arrives late Saturday, bringing precipitation,
  cooler temperatures, and gusty winds to the area through Sunday.

- Probability of 6+ inches of snow is 50-80 percent over the
  Absaroka-Bearooth and Crazy Mountains, and 25 percent over the
  Bighorn Mountains.

- Unsettled weather with below normal temps continue next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

Dry conditions will continue into tonight under clear to mostly
clear skies. Friday will see temperatures a few degrees warmer
than today with a slight chance of precipitation returning to
southern Montana and northern Wyoming (10 to 20 percent chance).
With this, any rainfall accumulations that do occur will remain
light. Outside of the precipitation, breezy southeasterly winds
are expected to develop over far eastern Montana during the day
with gusts generally in the 20s and 30s (mph). By the evening into
the overnight, a few gusts to 40 mph are likely, generally over
the higher hills around Baker and Ekalaka (70 percent chance).

Saturday looks to be the warmest day going forward for areas east
of the mountains with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.
While eastern Montana looks to remain dry, the chance of
precipitation does increase over south-central Montana and
northern Wyoming through the day as our next weather system
approaches the region. Late Saturday into Sunday, the weather
system and the associated cold front will move through, allowing
the chance of precipitation to increase and spread east across the
area. By late Sunday into Monday, the chance of precipitation
will come to an end, lingering the longest over the foothills west
of Billings (Big Timber through Harlowton) where upslope
enhancement looks to occur.

At this time, the chance of seeing any precipitation with this
system is high (55 to 95 percent chance, greatest over south-
central Montana and lowest near the Montana/Dakotas border). As
far as seeing an inch or more of precipitation through the event
goes, chances are moderate (40 to 70 percent) around and west of
Billings, greatest over the mountains and foothills, and low to
zero percent around and east of Rosebud County. With a bit of
instability during the day Saturday, a few weak thunderstorms
could also develop and produce locally higher precipitation
amounts over south- central Montana. While precipitation over the
lower elevations will start out as rain, snow levels look to drop
around 5,500 to 6,000 feet by mid-day Sunday. This will allow snow
to fall in the mountains across the area. At this time, the
chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow is high generally above
8,000 feet in the Absaroka-Beartooth and Crazy Mountains. The
chance of seeing 12 or more inches of snow is 30 to 50 percent.
Over the Bighorns, less snow is expected, with the chance of
seeing 4 or more inches of snow at 40 to 60 percent. By late
Sunday into Monday morning, temperatures across the area are
expected to drop near to below freezing. With this, the chance of
seeing lower elevation snow does exists. At this time, areas
around Melville to Judith Gap currently have around 70 percent
chance of seeing light snow as precipitation lingers here the
longest. Accumulations, should they occur, are expected to remain
light in these areas. Looking farther east, areas around and
north of Baker have around a 20 percent chance of seeing snow,
with only light accumulations possible. Across the rest of the
area, the chance remains low (generally less than 20 percent).
Will have to see how things trend as uncertainty in how cold the
system will be still exists.

Outside of the precipitation, the front will bring gusty winds
across the area late Saturday into Sunday, strongest Sunday
afternoon in eastern Montana. At this time, northwesterly wind
gusts in the 20s and 30s (mph) look to be common, with gusts into
the 40s likely over the wind prone foothills, higher hills of the
plains, and over far eastern Montana around Baker and Ekalaka.

Monday looks to be the coldest day of the forecast with high
temperatures now forecast in the upper 30s to 40s across the area.
As mentioned above, overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night
are also likely to drop near to below freezing (32F).

After a break in the precipitation, another weather system may
impact the northern rockies by the middle of next week.
Uncertainty remains though, so stay tuned. Arends

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy southeast
winds across eastern MT (KMLS, KBHK) will bring gusts 20-30 kts
beginning Friday morning after sunrise, lasting through the day.
TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 051/078 042/049 030/045 029/047 035/052 034/050
    02/W    02/W    97/W    21/B    11/B    22/W    42/W
LVM 039/075 047/072 033/047 024/042 024/048 029/052 029/050
    02/B    15/T    98/W    42/J    12/W    33/W    43/W
HDN 039/073 046/079 040/050 028/050 027/050 032/053 032/050
    02/W    01/B    98/W    21/B    11/B    22/W    42/W
MLS 042/076 050/079 043/054 028/047 031/054 036/057 036/052
    01/U    00/B    68/W    10/U    11/B    22/W    32/W
4BQ 043/074 052/078 045/055 030/049 034/057 038/058 037/052
    02/W    00/B    37/W    10/U    11/B    12/W    32/W
BHK 038/070 049/076 046/054 025/047 027/055 033/057 033/053
    00/N    00/B    36/W    20/U    11/B    12/W    32/W
SHR 039/077 046/077 038/052 026/052 027/054 031/056 031/051
    02/W    01/B    68/W    20/B    11/B    22/W    42/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings