944
FXUS65 KBYZ 061933
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
133 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds this weekend; gusts 30-40 mph to near 50
  mph along Dakotas border.

- Warmer (highs in 80s to near 90F) early next week.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases next week,
  beginning Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday night...

Satellite imagery shows dry northwest flow over the region with
high clouds beginning to spread into northern MT in response to a
Canadian shortwave. Trof over WY continues to drift southeastward,
but as expected, there are a few showers over the Bighorns and
even a few lightning strikes in the Cloud Peak area. Otherwise,
our forecast area is sunny and dry today with downslope warming
pushing temps into the 70s. Some locations will touch 80F today.

Passage of a weak Canadian wave will bring some mid/high clouds
(and maybe high-based virga?) tonight. Downslope gradients tighten
a bit, so expect a little wind along the western foothills and an
overall warmer night due to this and the cloud cover. Stronger
Canadian low drops into the northern plains tomorrow and tomorrow
night. This will bring (1) frontal/mixed breezy NW winds with
widespread 25-35 mph gusts beginning by late Saturday morning, and
(2) some light showers along NW-SE oriented mid level baroclinic
zone tomorrow afternoon and night. There isn`t much instability
with the onset of cold advection, and what there is will be
shallow, so the risk of lightning is pretty low. The probability
of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph is about 20% in the east (probs are
higher Sunday) and the chance of precip exceeding 0.10" is only
5-10%. Although not particularly impactful weather, the breezy
winds will affect outdoor activities.

Temps will be seasonable. Look for lows in the upper 40s and 50s
tonight, highs Saturday mostly in the 70s, and lows tomorrow night
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

JKL

Sunday through Friday...

A 500 mb low moving into the North Central US will bring strong
winds to southeast Montana Sunday. 850 mb winds nearing 40 kts
and steep lapse rates will help to create strong mix down winds.
Expected winds have increased with ensemble systems indicating
wind gusts near the Dakotas border could (40-60%) approach 50
mph. Widespread wind gusts into the 30s to near 40 mph are
expected elsewhere.

Ridging will make its way into the region for the early workweek
with temperatures peaking Tuesday. The probabilities for a high
temperature over 90 degrees Tuesday continues to increase across
the region with locations below 4,500 ft having a 50-80% chance.
Starting Wednesday, ensembles are in good agreement that an upper
level low over the Pacific northwest will bring more active
weather to the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease while
still remaining seasonal. Southwest flow will bring increased
moisture to the region. This combined with frequent upper level
waves are expected to bring near daily precipitation chances
through Friday. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers over the Bighorn Mountains will dissipate by
early this evening. VFR conditions will prevail tonight and
Saturday, though by tomorrow afternoon expect isolated showers to
develop as a cold front drops through the region. This front will
bring breezy NW winds tomorrow late morning and afternoon. Look
for gusts of 25-35 knots, greatest east of KBIL. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/079 052/076 049/085 058/092 058/085 057/078 055/078
    12/W    20/B    00/U    01/U    34/T    55/T    55/T
LVM 048/077 046/076 047/085 054/087 053/080 050/076 049/075
    01/N    20/U    00/U    02/T    46/T    66/T    66/T
HDN 053/079 051/075 044/084 052/092 057/087 057/079 055/081
    12/W    20/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    55/T    55/T
MLS 054/079 051/074 047/082 053/093 061/087 058/078 056/080
    03/W    30/N    00/U    00/U    32/W    54/T    64/T
4BQ 053/078 050/071 047/078 052/090 059/086 057/078 056/080
    02/T    30/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    54/T    54/T
BHK 050/077 044/070 042/076 048/088 054/082 053/075 052/076
    03/T    10/N    00/U    00/U    22/W    44/T    54/T
SHR 048/077 047/070 044/079 049/088 054/084 052/076 052/079
    02/T    30/N    00/U    01/U    23/T    56/T    45/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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