195
FXUS65 KBYZ 121020
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
320 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold through Thursday morning. Continue to protect
  yourself from the cold if heading outside during this time.

- Strong winds producing blowing and drifting snow around
  Livingston to Nye this evening into Thursday morning. Increasing
  concern for significantly reduced visibilities during this time.

- Chance of snow Friday into Saturday (50-80% for greater than 1
  inch) and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday Night...

Very cold conditions continue across the region, with overnight
temperatures in the single digits below zero to minus 20F. Very
cold wind chills accompanying these temperatures will continue
through the morning, with values between -25 and -40F. As a
result, the Cold Weather Advisories across the forecast area will
remain in effect until noon today.

High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, single digits
near zero to low 10s. Expect dry and calm conditions into this
evening, before a weak upper disturbance brings a wind shift from
the NW to the WSW. Another cold night is in store, with lows in
the single digits below zero to minus 20F (coldest temps along the
Dakota Borders). Additional cold weather highlights may be
needed, tonight through Thursday morning, with wind chill values
between -20 and -35F. If heading outside anytime between now and
Thursday morning, make sure to limit exposure and dress in layers.
Frostbite and hypothermia can occur quickly at temperatures this
cold.

Wednesday night through Thursday morning, winds will quickly
increase after sunset due to a strengthening surface pressure
gradient. Strong wind gusts are forecast for Livingston and Nye,
with a >90% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph and a 65% chance
of gusts greater than 60 mph. For Big Timber and Harlowton, the
probability of gusts greater than 50 mph is 20-40% and less than
10% for 60 mph gusts. There is great concern for blowing and
drifting snow in Livingston and Nye with these gusts. For now, the
Winter Storm Watch for strong winds, blowing and drifting snow
producing significantly reduced visibilities, remains in effect
from 8PM Tonight to Noon Thursday. The recent snowpack has had a
few days to settle, although snow density has been very light. The
uncertainty for conditions exists with how the snowpack behaves.
Motorists should prepare for increasingly hazardous conditions
along I-90, west of Billings, with the most dangerous conditions
in the Livingston area.

The aforementioned flow shift will bring a warmup to the region
on Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper teens to 30F.
Thursday night, an approaching upper trough brings the chance for
snow. Light accumulations are expected in the western mountains
Friday morning. Thursday night, temperatures are forecast in the
single digits to low 10s.

Matos

Friday through Tuesday...

A broad Pacific trough will move across the Rockies. Most of the
energy is diving south into the desert southwest, but we will have
a good deep fetch of moisture tracking over our region. This will
coincide with a push of colder air setting up an over-running
pattern through Saturday. Forcing is weak and upslope shallow, but
some degree of dendritic growth is possible based on soundings.
We still are looking at a 1-3 inch type of event with only 90th
percentile and above values showing more significant (>5 in)
accumulations. NBM is currently giving locations west of Rosebud
County a 60-90% chance for 1 inch or more of snow...with the
chance of 2 inches or more only 20-35%. From an impacts stand-
point, the Friday evening commute may see snow picking up with
minor impacts, and certainly roads and visibilities may be
affected for Saturday morning travel.

After a short break Saturday night...another wave of moisture
will move across the region Sunday into Monday with cold air and
cyclonic flow still entrenched over the high plains. This means
potential for additional snowfall. Models currently suggest we are
looking at 30-60% chance of another 2+ inches, mainly west of
Rosebud County.

Temperatures...
Friday will see a shot of cold air and high
pressure moving into the region lowering high temperatures into
the teens for most locations. Highs Saturday will range from teens
in the foothills to single digits east. Sunday will see the high
pressure move to the east allowing downsloping to boost
temperatures into the teens and 20s for the west and central
zones, with low teens still out east. This pattern will last into
Monday as well. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low to mid level clouds will persist over eastern
sections of the forecast area with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions.
This may affect KBIL to KMLS, KBHK and KEKA. Lower clouds will
decrease after 16Z with mostly VFR after 19Z. Winds will increase
at KLVM after 01Z Thu with gusts 40-50kts possible by 12Z Thu.
This may also produce visibility risks due to blowing snow (chance
of vsby <1/2 mi at times 65%). BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 009 904/024 009/018 003/010 902/024 014/022 006/019
    0/B 00/Q    13/S    96/S    14/S    67/S    75/S
LVM 013 902/029 019/029 010/018 012/033 021/031 017/031
    0/U 00/Q    23/S    96/S    16/S    67/S    65/S
HDN 008 913/024 005/017 000/010 907/022 011/021 002/019
    0/B 00/U    03/S    85/S    14/S    78/S    76/S
MLS 000 915/017 004/014 902/004 912/012 002/012 907/008
    0/B 00/U    00/E    43/S    02/S    65/S    32/S
4BQ 005 909/025 007/020 001/008 909/020 011/018 000/016
    0/B 00/U    00/E    43/S    01/B    55/S    43/S
BHK 902 917/020 002/012 908/002 915/010 905/008 911/008
    0/I 00/U    01/E    35/S    01/B    54/S    32/S
SHR 009 911/030 009/025 000/013 902/028 012/026 005/023
    0/B 00/U    01/E    66/S    12/S    46/S    66/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Cold Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR
      ZONES
      29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through
      Thursday morning FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...Cold Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR ZONE
      199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings