676
FXUS65 KBYZ 302227
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
327 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer through the work week.

- Periods of strong winds over the foothills west of Billings into
  the weekend.

- Hazardous wintry conditions from snow and wind possible in the
  Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains starting Friday night.

- Pattern change to colder and wetter likely for the lower
  elevations Saturday night into Sunday.

- Unsettled, cold weather likely to stick around to start next
  week with additional periods of snow possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday evening...

Currently, ridging over the western US is keeping the region dryer
and warmer than average. Into tonight, a surface pressure
gradient and increased 700 mb winds favorable for gap winds in
the Livingston/Nye areas will allow for wind gusts of 55-65 mph.
Into the afternoon Friday, chances for strong winds increase for
the Big Timber area as the gradient shifts more northeast and 700
mb winds increase to 40-50 kts. With this, a Wind Advisory remains
in effect for the Livingston area and Beartooth Foothills this
evening through Saturday evening with a High Wind Warning for the
Big Timber area Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Allow
for extra time for travel or consider changing routes, especially
if traveling in a high profile vehicle. Winds across the western
foothills are likely to decrease through Saturday afternoon as the
gradient weakens.

A weak wave will pass over the region Friday bringing an
increased chance for precipitation Friday afternoon for the
western foothills (10-30%). Additional energy as well as an
increase in Pacific moisture will allow for small chances of rain
over lower elevations. The best chance for precipitation remains
in the southwest mountains (60-80%). The Beartooth/Absarokas have
a 40-60% chance of getting at least 8 inches of snow Friday
through Saturday. See discussion below for additional information
on mountain snowfall.

Friday and Saturday will be the last of the warm days with highs
in the upper 30s to low 50s. TS


Saturday Night through Thursday...

Colder conditions and periods of light to moderate snowfall for
the lower elevations and persistent snowfall for the mountains are
forecast through much of the long term. If you have outdoor or
travel plans this weekend and the coming week, monitor the
forecast closely.

A cold front is progged to drop through the area Saturday
evening/night ushering in colder temperatures and bringing with
it increasing precipitation chances. A rain/snow mix may initially
accompany the front, transitioning over to all snow as cold air
advection continues to work south through the region. Behind the
front, latest ensembles have continued the trend of showing a
a bit of a break in precipitation for much of Sunday, before a
shortwave and Pacific moisture stream back into the area Sunday
night, bringing a period of overrunning snowfall to the area into
Monday. There remains differences in where the moisture stream
sets up, with some ensembles bringing it right over southern MT,
while others keep it farther south, meaning less precipitation.
Yet another shortwave and stream of Pacific moisture are progged
to lift into the area from the southwest Monday night or Tuesday,
into Wednesday bringing another period of overruling and
potential for additional snowfall. Drier conditions then look to
move into the region for Thursday as the wave slides east and high
pressure builds to the west.

With regards to snowfall, the potential for multiple feet of snow
exists for the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy mountains from Sunday
through Wednesday, with lesser totals in the Bighorns (up to a
foot). Latest NBM currently has a 75-100% chance for greater than
12 inches of snowfall from Sunday through Tuesday. NBM is
currently giving locations west of Rosebud a 30-50% chance for
greater than 6 inches of snow Sunday through Tuesday. Additional
snow is possible Wednesday, with the greatest totals over central
and western areas. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with
regards to precipitation amounts with guidance showing great
differences in some cases. Totals will continue to be refined
over the coming days. The Winter Storm Watch for the
Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy mountains remains in effect from 5pm
Friday through 5pm Sunday.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast in the 20s to lower 30s,
likely occuring around midnight, then falling through the day.
Much colder temperatures will move in to the area for Monday
through Wednesday with highs in the single digits to lower teens.
Temperatures are then progged to rebound slightly for Thursday
with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Low temperatures at night
will likely be in the single digits above and below zero starting
Sunday night and continuing through the extended. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy
conditions will persist, strongest along the western foothills
through Friday. SW to W wind gusts of 40-50 kts are possible from
KLVM to K6S0 late tonight through Friday night. STP/LT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/045 031/049 022/028 002/007 000/010 000/015 000/021
    00/E    02/W    64/S    86/S    65/S    55/S    42/S
LVM 029/042 031/043 019/030 006/014 004/015 008/024 006/026
    01/N    35/J    64/S    76/S    66/S    56/S    33/S
HDN 021/044 028/051 020/028 000/009 000/012 901/016 904/021
    00/B    02/W    64/S    87/S    66/S    55/S    43/S
MLS 019/039 026/046 015/019 903/004 901/008 901/012 906/015
    00/B    21/B    31/E    54/S    44/S    33/S    22/S
4BQ 021/040 026/046 021/027 002/009 002/011 000/015 902/020
    00/B    11/B    41/E    64/S    33/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 016/037 022/041 012/019 907/002 906/008 905/010 904/014
    00/B    01/B    31/B    44/S    44/S    23/S    32/S
SHR 021/045 026/048 019/031 001/015 902/016 902/019 901/024
    00/B    01/B    43/S    75/S    33/S    33/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM MST
      Saturday FOR ZONES 65-66.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through
      Sunday afternoon FOR ZONES 67-68.
     High Wind Warning in effect from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM MST
      Saturday FOR ZONE 141.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings