257
FXUS65 KBYZ 190824
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
224 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday.

- Temperatures today and Wednesday could push over 100 degrees,
  with record highs possible.

- This stretch of warm and dry weather will bring an increased
  risk for wildfires. Take care to avoid causing a spark!

- Cold front will bring a return to seasonable, to slightly below
  normal temperatures Thursday into the end of the week, but
  precipitation chances remain low.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

A strong ridge over the region will bring hot and dry conditions
through Wednesday, increasing fire weather concerns and heat
health concerns. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to low
100s, approaching or exceeding record highs for many locations.
Overnight, lows over the east will remain in the 70s for some
locations, providing little relief. As a result, a Heat Advisory
is in effect for the eastern half of the region from 9 AM this
morning through 9 PM Wednesday. Visit heat.gov for information to
help keep you safe during this period of dangerous heat.

Late today, a strong low level jet is expected to set up near the
Dakota border, bringing wind gusts around 20-30 mph over the east
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Currently, winds are
expected to decrease before the hottest part of the day, but this
will be something to watch. Additionally, the jet may bring enough
instability for isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20%
chance) over the east late this afternoon into evening.

Late Wednesday, a cold front will move across the area, bringing
an end to the heat. Low chances (15-30%) for showers and
thundestorms will develop along and behind the front Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning.

Skies will continue to occasionally be hazy as wildfire smoke
enter the region. Currently, concentrations are expected to stay
below levels that cause health concerns or significant visibility
reductions. Archer


Thursday through Monday...

Shortwave and associated cold front will have moved through
southeast MT Thursday morning, with a backdoor front currently
progged by ensembles to drop into the area on Friday. With
ridging suppressed, temperatures look to range from the 80s on
Thursday, to the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and Saturday. NW
flow, easterly upslope surface winds, and increasing PWATs will
bring at least some low chances for showers and thunderstorms
(15-30%) to portions of the area. Ridge rebuilds this weekend to
the west of the area with the thermal low under it continuing to
force an easterly wind across the forecast area. Temperatures in
this pattern will slowly warm up through the weekend but remain
below 90 degrees.

Ridge axis begins to shift east over eastern MT early next week as
troughing pushes into the Pac NW. The building heights will allow
temperatures to warm near 90 degrees, and restrict any
precipitation chances to the southwest mountains. STP
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening near the
Dakotas border. Slant range vsby reductions are possible due
to smoke from regional wildfires. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 100 066/099 063/084 059/080 055/083 056/085 057/086
    0/U 00/U    11/U    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 097 058/095 054/085 050/081 047/084 049/086 052/086
    0/U 00/U    21/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/T
HDN 101 062/100 062/085 058/081 055/084 054/086 056/086
    0/G 00/U    11/U    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 101 070/100 068/085 058/079 053/079 053/081 055/082
    0/G 00/U    11/U    21/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 099 072/101 068/086 060/077 055/077 054/079 056/081
    0/U 00/G    10/U    41/B    20/U    10/U    11/U
BHK 096 066/100 063/084 053/077 049/075 048/076 050/077
    2/U 00/U    21/U    21/U    10/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 098 061/100 061/085 054/079 052/081 051/082 053/082
    0/U 00/U    02/T    32/T    11/U    11/U    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT
      Wednesday FOR ZONES
      29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT
      Wednesday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings