916
FXUS65 KBYZ 020631
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1231 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic chances of precipitation this weekend into early next
  week, mainly over and near the mountains and foothills.

- Rain/snow mix possible (moderate chance) over the foothills and
  higher hills Monday into Tuesday.

- High temperatures in the 60s and 70s this weekend before cooler
  temperatures return Monday into Tuesday (40s to 60s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...

The ridge of high pressure that brought warm and dry conditions
to the area yesterday will break down today as a shortwave and
associated cold front drop through the area. While temperatures
will not be impacted much, highs in the 60s and 70s, some breezy
northerly winds will develop with peak gusts in the teens and 20s
mph, strongest over south-eastern Montana. A few light showers may
also develop during the afternoon over and near the mountains (10
to 15 percent chance) before the chance of precipitation
increases to around 15 to 25 percent over the plains of south-
central and eastern Montana during the evening underneath a
developing band of frontogenesis. With this, there may even be
enough instability to support a weak thunderstorm or two, but the
chance remains lower around 5 to 15 percent.

The upper level flow pattern becomes more cyclonic on Sunday.
This, combined with a bit more instability (CAPE values around 200
to 500 J/kg), support a slightly better chance of showers and
weak thunderstorms over and near the mountains during the
afternoon and evening (20 to 50 percent chance of precipitation
and 10 to 20 percent chance of thunder). With this, high
temperatures will once again be in the 60s and 70s.

A stronger shortwave and associated cold front will drop through
through the area Monday into Tuesday. This will bring cooler
temperatures and the chance of precipitation to the area both
days. On Monday, the chance of precipitation is generally 20 to 60
percent as a cold front brings scattered showers through the
area. On Tuesday, the chance of precipitation sinks closer to the
mountains and foothills where there is once again a 20 to 60
percent chance of precipitation with lingering unstable upslope
flow. Temperatures during this time will be in the 50s and 60s
Monday and 40s and 50s Tuesday. With this, rain will be the
predominant precipitation type over the plains, with a mix of rain
and snow possible over the higher hills and foothills. While the
scattered nature of the precipitation will likely keep
precipitation amounts lower Monday into Tuesday, there is up to a
30 percent chance of seeing a quarter inch or more of
precipitation along the foothills. Over the mountains, where all
snow is expected, a couple inches of snow are forecast.

Outside of the precipitation, gusty northerly winds are likely
Monday and Tuesday. During this time, gusts in the 20s and 30s mph
look to be common, strongest on Monday with the cold front.

While upper level ridging looks to build over the western United
States Wednesday into the second half of the week, the strength of
this ridge has been decreasing in ensemble forecasts over the
past few days. With this, there are now hints that we could stay
in more unsettled northwesterly flow, opening the door to
additional shortwaves and subsequent precipitation chances. Arends

.AVIATION...

VFR/dry conditions will prevail through mid afternoon. From late
afternoon through tonight, a Canadian front will bring isolated
showers and the potential for local/brief MVFR. A rumble of
thunder is possible. The front will also bring a shift to breezy
N-NE winds this afternoon and evening (gusts 15-25 knots).
Mountains will be occasionally obscured tonight. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 045/074 046/057 036/053 033/065 043/073 046/075
    1/B 21/B    14/W    23/W    11/U    22/T    11/B
LVM 074 040/073 041/057 033/051 030/064 041/072 044/072
    1/B 12/W    13/W    33/T    11/N    12/T    11/B
HDN 073 043/074 043/059 034/054 030/063 038/073 045/075
    1/U 22/W    14/W    23/W    11/U    23/T    11/B
MLS 072 041/075 044/057 032/052 030/059 035/069 043/073
    0/B 10/B    13/W    11/B    10/U    11/B    12/W
4BQ 072 042/070 043/057 032/051 029/057 036/066 042/071
    0/U 21/B    13/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 036/071 040/054 027/048 025/055 029/064 038/068
    0/U 00/U    13/W    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 071 037/068 041/057 030/048 026/057 035/068 041/070
    1/U 24/T    15/W    45/T    32/W    13/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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