608
FXUS65 KBYZ 051106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
506 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Turning gradually cooler and wetter late Sunday into early next
  week.

- Mostly dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal
  midweek into the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next 7 days (through Friday)...

Conditions remain hot and mostly dry today, although less so than
yesterday, ahead of an approaching trough. As a result, fire
weather concerns remain elevated. As surface wind turn out of the
east late today, increasing atmospheric moisture, there is a low
chance (5-20%) for showers and thunderstorms near the Dakota
border late today into early Sunday.

The next best chance for precipitation (40-90%) then arrives late
Sunday into Monday as the upper level trough moves across the
region and PWATs increase to 170-210% of normal. With this, any
shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing pockets of
heavy rain, especially over the west and the north. A few storms
may be strong to severe Sunday afternoon and evening over the
north and east, with strong wind gusts as the main threat. The
arrival of this trough will also allow temperatures to cool, with
highs in the 70s over the west to 80s over the east by Monday.

Tuesday into the end of the work week, models now favor a modest
ridge building in. This will keep conditions mostly dry and allow
temperatures near (70s) to slightly above (80s) normal to continue.
Archer

.AVIATION...

12z Aviation/TAF Discussion...VFR conditions will prevail for the
next 36hours. Localized smoke from wildfires in Rosebud/Custer
Counties may reduce surface visibility at times especially in the
overnight and early morning hours for K1S3/KMLS/KBHK terminals.
Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 057/084 059/078 052/074 049/079 053/084 055/079
    0/U 00/B    75/T    20/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
LVM 081 047/082 049/071 041/071 040/079 046/081 047/077
    0/U 00/U    65/T    31/N    00/U    01/B    22/W
HDN 086 053/088 058/082 048/076 045/082 048/086 051/082
    0/U 00/U    55/T    30/N    00/U    00/B    01/B
MLS 088 061/090 064/083 052/075 048/080 051/085 053/081
    0/U 00/B    53/T    41/N    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 089 060/092 067/085 054/077 050/082 054/086 055/083
    0/U 00/K    31/B    30/U    00/U    00/B    00/B
BHK 094 059/093 062/086 050/077 044/081 048/086 050/083
    0/U 03/T    63/W    31/N    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 087 054/088 058/081 045/075 043/079 047/084 049/081
    0/U 00/U    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/B    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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