


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
602 FXUS65 KBYZ 100733 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 133 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with highs in the lower 90s today. - Strong Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning. - Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s. - Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Friday night... Residual convection looks to be out of the area by sunrise today. What follows is a mostly sunny and dry day. High temperatures have crept upward for today over the past few model runs, into the low to mid 90s for many areas. This warming trend is in part due to the lack of cloud cover but also the dry air in place to start the day. Will see moisture levels increase some ahead of the cold front that is expected to arrive early to mid evening. The frontal passage doesn`t look subtle with a strong push of northerly winds. 850mb winds push above 40kts in spots as the front moves into the area. don`t think surface gusts will be that strong for most of the area as the evening frontal timing brings the nocturnal inversion development into play which will likely hold strongest winds aloft. That said gusts of 20 to 30 mph seem reasonable as the front moves through. The cooler temperatures with this cold front have been consistent over the past few days. What has changed is how much drier this system has become over time. At this point most areas north of a Livingston to Miles City line may see very little precipitation and foothills zones where the best moisture looks to fall are looking at closer to 0.15 inches compared to close to half an inch in the models several days ago. Precipitation chances remain in the 30 to 60 percent tonight, with strongest probabilities over the upslope oriented northern foothills. Snow levels have also risen over the past few days, now showing Saturday morning levels around 12kft, above the Beartooth Pass. That said those heading into the high country over the next 48 hours should be prepared for changing conditions and cold wet conditions Thursday night into Friday. Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by mid to late morning Friday, bringing an end to precipitation chances. Whats left is a mostly sunny and cool afternoon with high temperatures mainly in the 70s, and a north to northwest breeze making it feel even cooler. Not bad for the middle of July, maybe take the day off and get outside if you can. Chambers Saturday through Wednesday... After Friday`s cool down, flat ridging will bring dry & warmer weather this weekend. Look for temps back to around 90F Saturday and in the 90s Sunday. Neither day looks particularly windy, but modestly breezy westerly winds are expected along the western foothills. The ridge will give way to the next trof dropping thru western Canada Monday. This is a day of high uncertainty given issues w/ timing of a cold front. A later fropa would push Monday warmer than Sunday and perhaps near 100F in the east (probabilities for reaching triple digits are ~20%). A later fropa would also enhance pre-frontal mixed winds, while a daytime frontal passage would bring potentially strong/shifting winds during the peak heating time. Finally, cannot rule out strong t-storms on Monday depending on these other factors. Overall in a general sense, look for increasing chances of showers & t-storms on Monday with the arrival of a cold front, along with potential fire wx concerns. Post-frontal cool advection looks to be potent for mid-July, w/ a 1025mb Canadian surface high, and we expect temps in the 70s for Tuesday & perhaps Wednesday. In fact, the chances of highs NOT exceeding 70F are non-zero. The greatest potential for precip (showers w/o t-storms) is Monday night and Tuesday. We are looking at an open wave and only modest precip, with the chances of 0.10" or more around 40%. Uncertainty is high at this time, but we also could see a bit of snow over the highest peaks of the Beartooths. Something to monitor if you have outdoor plans in the high country next week. Overwhelming ensemble consensus is for warmer & drier conditions by next Thursday. JKL && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the region today. Isolated high-based light showers and a few embedded weak t-storms will impact mainly eastern areas early this morning until sunrise. This will be followed by dry conditions and breezy (15-25 knot gusts) NW winds today. A reinforcing cold front is expected to arrive this evening, bringing stronger 25-35 knot northerly wind gusts along with scattered showers and local MVFR flight conditions tonight. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 091 059/078 053/092 060/095 063/087 055/075 053/078 0/U 32/W 00/B 00/U 11/U 33/T 32/W LVM 088 049/079 047/088 054/092 055/087 049/075 045/079 1/N 41/U 00/B 00/U 12/T 33/T 32/T HDN 092 057/077 049/091 056/095 060/088 054/075 051/079 0/U 43/T 00/B 00/U 11/U 42/W 32/W MLS 093 058/078 053/090 061/094 064/089 055/075 052/077 0/U 42/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 42/W 21/U 4BQ 091 059/075 051/088 060/093 064/090 057/072 053/075 0/U 33/T 00/B 00/U 11/U 42/T 42/W BHK 092 055/074 048/086 056/091 059/087 052/072 048/074 0/U 23/T 00/B 00/U 11/U 42/W 22/W SHR 088 052/071 045/087 054/092 058/087 051/072 048/077 1/U 35/T 00/U 00/U 12/T 34/T 43/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings