845
FXUS65 KBYZ 281733
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1033 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Post-Thanksgiving travel will be impacted into Saturday. Much of
  the area can expect to see 2-6 inches of snow. Be prepared for
  wintry travel conditions.

- Much colder temperatures Saturday through Monday, highs in the
  teens and 20s. Saturday night lows in the single digits above
  and below zero.

- Another system may bring rain/snow showers, Tuesday into
  Wednesday (moderate chance).

- Increased winds for gap locations ahead of the system
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

A cold front is dropping south through the area this morning, with
snow spreading into the area from the north and west. Northerly
winds are currently gusting to 40 mph near Judith Gap and
Harlowton, and expect widespread wind gusts up to 30 mph to spread
over the area today. Expect snow to increase in coverage over the
area today as a winter storm system drops through the region. We
have already reached our highs, or will shortly for the day, with
falling temperatures expected. Any wet or slushy surfaces today,
will likely freeze by this evening. Have increased PoPs and wind
to account for latest trends. Otherwise, the going forecast
remains in good shape, along with the forecast snow amounts. Will
make no changes to the winter weather advisories. Previous
discussion is below. STP

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...

An area of frontogenesis and warm air advection continues to move
across the north and eastern zones this morning. Light snow
showers are occurring with these features. An upper trough and
surface cold front are still on track to drop into the region late
this morning through the afternoon, bringing widespread snowfall
and colder temperatures for the weekend. Winter Weather Advisories
remain on track across the area, with many of them going into
effect at 5 AM this morning and ending at early Saturday Morning.
Snowfall amounts vary amongst the highlights, though the general
range is 2 to 5 inches for much of the forecast area. The Judith
Gap and Southern Wheatland Advisory is the exception, with only
1-3 inches of snowfall forecast. In addition to accumulating snow,
this system will bring wind gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range,
resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Locally higher snowfall amounts are possible with upslope flow,
such as the Bull and Wolf Mountains, as well as the higher hills
across the plains. Something to keep an eye on will be the surface
flow for Billings, with higher amounts possible if winds trend
more northeasterly. Due to the general flow over the western
zones, significant accumulations are not forecast for north-east
facing slopes such as Red Lodge.

Another potential impact we are monitoring this morning is the
potential for mixed precipitation and showers with freezing rain.
The best chance for this exists along I-90 from Big Timber to
Hardin until 9 AM. It is imperative to prepare for slick and
changing road conditions into Saturday morning. Breaks in snowfall
are expected within the advisories east of Billings, this
morning.

By late Saturday morning, the bulk of the trough energy and
precipitation will be departing the far east. Cold air will be
left behind, with high temperatures on Saturday in the teens and
20sF. Saturday night will see the first hazardously cold
temperatures of the season, with overnight lows plunging into the
single digits above and below 0F. The coldest temperatures will be
felt in river valleys north and east of Billings. Sunday night
will also be cold, though temperatures won`t be as cold as
Saturday night, in the single digits above 0F across the plains to
low teens in the western foothills.

Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, with highs in
the teens to 20s for most areas. Another low pressure system is
shown dropping through Idaho and Wyoming on Sunday. The bulk of
this energy will miss the forecast area, with only a low chance
(10 to 20%) for snow showers in the southwest mountains.

A warming trend begins Monday, with highs climbing back into the
30s to near 40F by mid-week. Models are depicting another upper
trough moving through the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. There is
disagreement amongst models and ensembles with the evolution of
the system, with the ECMWF showing the energy rocketing off
towards the Sierra Nevada. Meanwhile, the GEFS shows a much slower
progression, with the same general trend occuring by Friday,
versus Wednesday/Thursday with the EC. Either way, this system
looks to bring another period of precipitation to the area, with
rain and snow showers. Uncertainty remains with total amounts,
though the current forecast has mostly light snowfall (a few
tenths to an inch for much of the plains, locally higher amounts
up to 3 inches in the higher hills in SE MT) Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Lastly, there will be a period of increased winds in the gap
locations, Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening gradient
and modest WSW flow at 700 mb.

Matos

.AVIATION...

A winter weather system will bring snow, wind, lower ceilings,
and reduced visibility to the area today. With this, MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected, with periods of LIFR under heavier snow
and blowing snow. Look for the mountains to become obscured. As
far as the wind goes, look for winds to gust in the 15 to 30 knot
range behind a cold front passage. Ahead of this cold front,
isolated showers may (up to 20 percent) contain mix precipitation,
and freezing rain, this morning around K6S0 to KBIL to K00U until
15z.

Otherwise, pockets of low stratus over south-central Montana
early this morning are expected to lift as winds turn out of the
west- northwest. However, this cloud deck has been stubborn over
KBIL, so will have to monitor the situation. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 009/021 003/022 009/035 025/038 023/035 022/039
    +/S 91/B    00/B    00/B    15/O    42/S    12/O
LVM 032 003/027 007/030 015/038 025/039 021/037 021/039
    +/S 80/U    01/B    00/B    36/S    41/B    13/S
HDN 033 009/021 904/021 004/037 020/039 022/034 016/039
    9/S +2/S    01/B    00/B    26/O    63/S    13/O
MLS 028 012/017 903/015 901/028 017/035 016/026 013/035
    8/S 91/E    00/B    00/B    23/S    41/E    12/O
4BQ 035 012/019 000/022 007/034 020/038 020/030 018/036
    6/S +1/E    00/U    00/U    13/S    41/E    12/S
BHK 021 008/017 906/016 901/026 014/034 012/025 010/034
    6/S 91/E    00/B    00/B    12/S    41/E    12/S
SHR 036 006/021 000/025 006/038 018/039 019/034 015/040
    8/S +1/B    01/B    00/U    15/O    63/S    12/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Saturday FOR
      ZONES
      29>32-34-40-42-56-57-63>66-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Saturday
      FOR ZONES 33-36-37-58-138.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Saturday
      FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings