695
FXUS65 KBYZ 262132
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
232 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wednesday looks dry and is a good day to travel before
  Thanksgiving.

- Canadian cold front and areas of light snow expected Wednesday
  night into Thanksgiving day.

- Additional waves of light snow and below normal temps expected
  Friday and Saturday. Monitor the forecast if you have travel
  plans over the holiday weekend!

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Current radar is showing a few light, isolated snow showers NE of
Billings as well as over the mountains as a shortwave crosses
through the region this afternoon and evening. With the better
forcing over northern MT and not much moisture to work with,
accumulating precipitation will be difficult. The southwest
mountains have a 20-40% chance of receiving an inch of snowfall
through tomorrow morning. As the shortwave retreats east through
the morning, low level moisture will give way to low stratus
across eastern MT tonight, expected to clear up by late morning.
Morning lows will be in the single digits up to the upper 20s
along the immediate foothills. Slightly cooler and dry conditions
can be expected for Wednesday as NW flow builds in. High
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s and 30s. A jet riding
the mid level NW flow will bring an increased chance of
precipitation late Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.
See discussion below for more information on precip totals and
chances. TS


Thursday through Tuesday

Main forecast concerns are on a few shots of light snow late
Wednesday through Friday, with the potential for some travel
impacts.

Northwest flow with embedded weaker systems will be the main feature
across the forecast area through the end of the week. A 300 MB jet
streak noses into the region Wednesday evening into Thursday along
with a 500 mb shortwave, and will be the main system to bring a shot
of light snow to the area.  The mountains have the highest chances
(64-80 percent) of receiving over 1 inch of accumulation, while the
lower elevations will most likely see a few tenths to perhaps around
one inch with locally higher accumulations possible. Looking more
closely at the ensembles, the probabilities suggest that
accumulations in the lower elevations would fall somewhere between a
few tenths to around 1 inch (over a 90 percent chance for
accumulations over 0.1 inch with probabilities for over 1 inch
tapering to around 30 to 50 percent). Expect some travel impacts if
you are traveling Wednesday evening into Thanksgiving.  There is
high confidence in a ridging pattern developing over the western
CONUS early next week. WPC clusters are in good agreement Sunday
through Tuesday indicating a ridging pattern which would favor a
return to above normal temperatures for the forecast area.  Digging
deeper into the NBM probabilities at Billings there is a 75 percent
chance that highs will reach or exceed 45 degrees next Thursday into
Friday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

Mountain obscurations are expected as light snow showers continue
through this evening. A weak frontal passage moving through this
afternoon and evening will shift winds to the NW. Very light,
isolated snow showers will continue through the evening across the
plains as well. Low ceilings are likely across SE MT (KMLS,KBHK),
creating MVFR/IFR conditions starting after midnight, expected to
clear late morning. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020/035 017/027 015/032 014/029 013/032 017/038 020/042
    10/B    53/J    12/S    32/S    11/B    10/B    00/B
LVM 021/037 018/037 019/039 017/039 018/042 022/044 024/047
    10/B    21/M    11/B    21/B    10/B    10/B    00/B
HDN 018/033 015/027 011/031 012/029 008/031 012/037 015/043
    21/B    75/J    23/S    43/S    11/B    11/B    00/B
MLS 015/027 010/020 006/026 007/020 002/024 009/031 012/038
    11/B    70/B    03/S    32/S    00/B    01/B    01/B
4BQ 019/030 013/023 010/031 013/026 009/031 014/036 017/043
    10/B    51/E    01/B    32/S    00/B    10/B    01/B
BHK 010/025 005/019 901/024 003/020 901/026 005/031 009/037
    10/E    51/B    02/S    41/E    00/B    10/B    01/B
SHR 018/035 013/029 011/036 012/033 012/038 016/041 017/048
    21/B    54/J    11/B    42/S    11/B    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings