711
FXUS65 KBYZ 062011
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
211 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low precipitation chances linger through Monday, mainly over SE
  Montana.

- Warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs approaching
  triple digits in some locations Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cold front brings precipitation chances Thursday and Friday;
  along with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday night...

Seasonal temperatures were found across the area this afternoon
with 70s to lower 80s common. A few showers or thunderstorms are
possible over the higher terrain this afternoon into the evening,
though most areas can expect dry conditions. A trough crossing
southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will eventually drop into the
northern plains by the second half of Monday. This will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance)
to areas mainly north/east of Billings late this evening into
Monday morning. Most activity will be over by mid-morning, with
perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms lingering over far southeast
MT into Monday afternoon. Overall, precipitation is expected to be
mainly light with the activity tonight into Monday.

Drier conditions move into the region Monday night through Tuesday
as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures in the upper 70s
to middle 80s on Monday will climb into the 90s for many places on
Tuesday (probability of exceeding 100 degrees remains below 20%). STP

Wednesday through Monday...

Wednesday will be the hottest day for most of the region. High
temps will approach or exceed 100F in many locations including
Billings and Miles City. Some cloud cover near the mountains may
limit some heating in the foothills keeping highs more reflective
of what is forecast for Tuesday. Due to the slightly drier
conditions as well as limited cloud cover, temps should have no
trouble falling back into the 60s overnight allowing for a
reprieve from the heat.

On Thursday a cold front is forecast to push through which will
bring back the chance for some scattered thunderstorms. While CAPE
could be limited for much of the region, the forcing from the
advecting front should be enough to kick off the storms. The main
thing to watch at this time would be the potential for any of the
storms to produce locally gusty winds due to the inverted-V
forecast soundings. PWAT values are also forecast to increase to
over an 1" for the plains of Montana bringing with them the chance
for locally heavy rainfall.

The weekend comes with much more uncertainty. There is minimal
agreement amongst the clusters regarding what happens after the
late week shortwave exits the region. Some ensemble members bring
another, potentially stronger, pacific trough through the region
allowing for continues cooler temps and chances for precip while
others show the opposite. Some members want quickly bring back a
large ridge and have temps rival that of the midweek heat. These
discrepancies will have to be monitored in the coming days. WMR

&&

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

Isolated rain showers are possible near KMLS/KBHK after 14z. Winds
should be light out of the north during the day today
transitioning to light and variable overnight. WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/084 060/096 064/099 063/084 054/079 055/089 060/093
    20/U    00/U    10/U    22/T    31/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 048/084 052/093 055/096 053/081 045/078 048/087 052/091
    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    31/U    00/B    01/U
HDN 057/085 057/097 060/100 062/084 052/078 051/090 056/093
    21/U    00/U    10/U    11/B    41/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 060/083 059/096 065/101 064/086 054/078 054/089 059/093
    32/T    00/U    00/G    11/B    31/U    00/U    10/U
4BQ 061/080 060/093 066/097 065/086 055/075 054/086 060/091
    32/T    00/U    10/U    11/B    41/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 056/080 054/089 061/096 060/085 051/075 050/085 055/091
    23/T    00/U    01/U    11/B    31/B    00/U    10/U
SHR 053/082 052/093 055/096 058/082 048/073 047/085 053/090
    21/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    42/T    10/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings