225
FXUS65 KBYZ 230616
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1116 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for light snow Saturday night through Sunday.

- Sunday and Monday will be cooler.

- Tuesday will be warmer and dry.

- Unsettled but uncertain forecast from Wednesday through the
  holiday weekend. Stay tuned to the travel forecast through the
  weekend for updates.

&&

.UPDATE...

Raised winds for the Beartooth foothills tomorrow. Strong 700mb
winds will align with the Paradise valley. This setup favors
locations such as Livingston and Nye to see the strongest winds.
These locations will see winds gusting into the 50s. Locations
such as Big Timber will likely be limited to the 40s mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Sunday...

While rain/snow showers continue to move through central and
northern Montana this afternoon and evening, the majority of our
area will remain dry. The only areas that may see light
precipitation during this time are the western mountains and
foothills and northern portions of Wheatland, Golden Valley,
Musselshell, Rosebud, and Custer Counties, but the chance remains
low. By tonight, the chance of precipitation will come to an end.

Tonight will see temperatures drop into the teens and 20s. With
this, portions of the area may see patchy fog develop under
easterly surface winds. Any fog that develops will dissipate
Saturday morning.

Saturday will start out dry over the lower elevations ahead of
our next weather system. With this, look for southwesterly winds
to increase around Livingston mid-day. At this time, there is a 75
percent chance that wind gusts of 50 mph occur. These strong
winds will be short lived though as a cold front is forecast to
move into and through the region Saturday evening and night,
turning winds out of the northwest.

With this frontal passage, the chance of precipitation also
increases across much of the region Saturday evening into Sunday
as isolated to scattered precipitation moves through the region.
The precipitation over the lower elevations looks to start as rain
and then transition over to snow. While snow amounts look to
remain generally light over the lower elevations with this system,
the probability of an inch of snow has increased in the latest
cycle of the National Blend of Models (NBM). Areas around Billings
to Livingston to Harlowton now have around a 50-65 percent chance
of seeing an inch of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces. In the
Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains, generally 3 to 6 inches of
snow is expected. The chance of precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening across the region. Arends

Monday through Friday...

Sunday night will be a cold one with lows in the low teens to
single digits. Can`t rule out some lingering flurries during the
evening hours, otherwise generally dry overnight. Warm advection
pattern kicks in for Monday and lasts through Tuesday. This should
bring warmer and mainly dry conditions to the area after a cool
Sunday. Highs on Monday will range from near 40 in the western
foothills, to the mid/upper 20s along the eastern state line. By
Tuesday afternoon 40s will spread across most of the area, with a
few mid/upper 30s hanging on over far eastern zones and in more
protected river valley locations.

The forecast from Wednesday on has become more uncertain over the
past 24 hours. Looking at ensemble model cluster analysis for this
period there is now an even split between a cold/moderate/warm
pattern, where yesterday the lean was toward a cold over-running
pattern by Thursday lasting through the weekend. The cold air will
determine where any snow falls, so we need to get better agreement
with the thermal details to be able to nail down precipitation
chances/amounts. Did not adjust the NBM for the Wednesday through
Friday period which shows a middle ground temperature forecast
and low precipitation chances.

Those with travel plans should continue to monitor the forecast
through the weekend, with models hopefully picking a solution
before holiday travel kicks in. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

A combination of low stratus and fog will become more widespread
thru the night, with all MT TAF sites at risk of flight category
reductions. Look for MVFR to LIFR conditions. Fog and stratus will
slowly dissipate through mid to late morning on Saturday. Shower
chances will increase from the west Saturday afternoon and
evening. Expect mountains to become increasingly obscured while
VFR prevails at lower elevations. Regarding wind, expect LLWS at
KLVM tonight and tomorrow morning as SW flow increases on top of
light easterly surface winds. By tomorrow afternoon, mixed SW
winds will strengthen along the foothills. Expect gusts of 40-50
knots at KLVM after 19z and until a cold front arrives Saturday
evening. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/040 021/028 011/031 018/041 021/037 016/032 015/031
    01/B    34/S    10/B    01/B    11/B    22/S    11/B
LVM 027/051 022/037 016/040 021/042 020/037 015/036 017/037
    13/R    63/S    10/B    11/B    11/B    21/B    11/B
HDN 020/040 018/028 009/031 013/040 018/037 013/032 010/031
    00/B    34/S    10/B    01/B    12/S    32/S    22/S
MLS 022/038 017/025 007/026 011/036 014/032 011/026 007/028
    00/B    12/S    00/B    01/B    01/B    12/S    11/B
4BQ 021/043 020/028 010/031 014/040 019/036 013/030 010/030
    00/B    02/S    10/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 015/033 012/027 002/025 006/035 011/030 006/024 003/026
    00/N    01/N    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 022/047 020/033 011/038 016/045 019/039 014/035 012/036
    00/B    24/S    20/U    01/B    12/S    32/S    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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