771
FXUS65 KBYZ 072106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
306 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds east of Billings Sunday with widespread
  gusts in the 30s mph. 30-60% chance for wind gusts over 50 mph
  along Dakotas border.

- Smoke moves into the region late this afternoon into tonight
  bringing hazy conditions and reduced air quality Sunday.

- Warmer (highs in 80s to near 90F) early next week.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases next week,
  beginning Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday night...

Scattered showers (20-30% chance) will persist overnight before
coming to an end Sunday morning. Smoke will work its way into the
region late this afternoon into tonight bringing hazy conditions
and reduced air quality Sunday. Winds will increase out of the
northwest east of Billings Sunday afternoon leading to widespread
gusts into the 30s mph. Locations near the Dakotas border will see
the strongest winds with a 30-60% chance of getting a gust over
50 mph. Conditions will be dry behind the cold front Sunday with
relative humidity values in the high teens and 20s. Temperatures
will be in the 70s F across the region.

Late Sunday, our pattern shift to warmer and drier conditions
will begin as the 500 mb low dominating our weekend weather moves
into the Great Lakes region. Torgerson



Monday through Saturday...

Confidence continues to grow that we will see a weather pattern
supporting high precipitable waters and daily thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, next week.

Monday into Tuesday should be warm & dry as we undergo flat
ridging and a transition period from a northerly flow regime to
WSW flow, as a trof settles over the PacNW. Monday will see temps
reach the upper 70s to near 90F (Canadian wildfire smoke
permitting), and after a mild Monday night, Tuesday will reach the
80s to lower 90s. That said, models are beginning to pick up on a
shift to NE winds on Tuesday and a possible onset of cool
advection for our north. Something to watch as this will impact
instability and t-storm chances later in the day.

Speaking of t-storms, the first in a series of waves arrives late
Tuesday bringing a 30-40% chance of showers and t-storms in the
late afternoon and evening, and even overnight in the east.
Moisture will increase on this day with pwats approaching an
inch...but the higher moisture anomalies arrive Wednesday and
beyond due to a persistent plains moisture tap resulting in pwats
up to 2 standard deviations above normal. For Tuesday, there may
be enough moisture/instability for a few strong to severe t-storms
in our west, but there remains plenty of uncertainty at this
point.

As already mentioned, a moist and unstable air mass with a series
of shortwaves emerging from a Pacific coast trof will yield daily
opportunities for convection Wednesday through Saturday. Model
consensus suggests a stronger shortwave late Wednesday into
Thursday and this is a period to watch for potential severe wx.
There may be a break w/ brief ridging late Thursday into early
Friday (tough to say), but more forcing arrives Friday into the
weekend. Anyone with outdoor plans in the late afternoon or
evening this week should stay in tune with the weather.

Monday & Tuesday look like the warmest days of the week. Look for
temps to remain a little warmer than normal Wednesday and beyond
with highs mostly mid 70s to mid 80s.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...


21Z Update...

Upstream observations are showing visibility reductions down to 3
SM at times due to smoke. KMLS is also now reporting visibility
reductions due to smoke. This increases confidence in visibility
reductions over the next 12 hours across southeast Montana and
north central Wyoming, including all TAF sites.

Winds will begin to decrease this evening after 00z becoming light
for much of southeast Montana. Areas near the Dakotas border will
still see winds gusting into the 20s kts overnight. Cold frontal
passage will bring in smoke after 00z causing reductions in slant
range visibility. Potential surface visibility reductions are
uncertain at this time and therefore have been left out of TAFS.
Scattered showers are possible (20-30%) through 06z Sunday. Winds
increase after 14z Sunday mainly east of KBIL. Areas near the
Dakotas border (including KBHK) have a 30-60% chance of getting a
gust over 50 mph. Torgerson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/076 049/088 061/087 057/084 057/075 053/079
    2/W 20/K    00/U    02/T    44/T    64/T    34/T
LVM 078 045/076 047/085 054/085 053/079 052/074 048/077
    1/N 20/K    00/U    03/T    46/T    85/T    46/T
HDN 078 051/075 044/087 055/088 057/084 057/075 052/081
    2/W 30/K    00/U    01/U    43/T    74/T    34/T
MLS 077 049/073 044/085 056/090 058/084 057/072 054/079
    3/W 20/N    00/U    00/U    42/T    66/T    54/T
4BQ 078 050/070 046/081 055/089 058/083 058/074 054/078
    2/W 30/N    00/U    00/U    42/T    54/T    33/T
BHK 075 044/069 040/078 051/085 053/077 051/069 050/076
    3/W 20/N    00/U    00/U    32/W    55/T    53/T
SHR 075 047/070 044/083 051/087 053/081 052/075 050/079
    2/W 40/N    00/U    02/T    44/T    54/T    34/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings