639
FXUS65 KBYZ 070547 AAB
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Billings MT
1047 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds (40-60 mph) winds develop again from Livingston to
  Nye tonight.

- Breezy to strong winds (45-55 mph) for Big Timber through
  Harlowton Friday evening.

- Cold front Friday night / Sat AM may produce light snow
  accumulations (dusting to an inch) for areas east of Hardin by
  Saturday morning.

- Gusty winds expected Friday night into Saturday morning (30-40
  mph) over much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...

The main story in the short term will be the gusty winds,
especially for areas in/around the foothills. As a 40-50kt 700mb
jet drops in from the NW across the CWA, windy conditions can be
expected across the region. The strongest of these winds will
likely occur along the US-191 corridor (Harlowton to Big Timber).
Clouds already starting to clear out in this region should
increase low-level lapse rates into this afternoon allowing the
winds aloft to mix down. The strongest of the winds aloft are
forecast to be over the Harlowton area this afternoon before the
early sunset allows for the nocturnal inversion to set up and
effectively shut off the winds. A gust to 60mph in the Harlowton
area is possible but a majority of the gusts should stay in the
50mph range. The same setup with a slightly stronger 700mb jet
should be in place tomorrow both ahead of, and behind, an
advancing cold front. The main difference, however, is that there
will likely be precipitation and cloud cover ahead of this front
which may limit the amount of mixing during the day. Behind the
cold front though, good subsidence, and associated CAA, may be
able to force down the winds aloft in the absence of any
meaningfully high lapse rates.

We continue to watch the potential for strong gap winds in/around
Livingston and Nye. The advancing 700mb jet mentioned above will
also play a role in the potential for strong winds in these areas
overnight tonight. The pressure gradient between IDA-LWT will be
sufficient for localized pressure systems to set up as the models
max out the gradient between 7-11mb early Friday morning. Clearing
skies this evening will also allow for an inversion to set up
fairly early which means that gusty winds should start by late
evening in these areas. A 10F temperature difference between YNP
and Livingston will also allow for the katabatic component of
these winds to kick in too. Gusts are expected up to 60mph.

The aforementioned cold front moving through the area Friday will
bring with it some chances for light precipitation, mainly in the
western 2/3 of the CWA. Billings and the foothills can expect
isolated showers tonight through midday Friday. Snow levels should
be around 6kft ahead of the FROPA falling to 4kft for the last
few flurries in the foothills Friday evening. Totals will be light
with the mountains picking up just an inch or two of snow.

Early Saturday the feature causing this precip and wind will
develop a surface low as it dives out of Montana and into the
Dakotas. This will give the eastern plains of Montana and Wyoming
a shot at seeing some backside snow. Accumulations wil be light as
this clipper system will be moving quite quickly and not have too
much moisture associated with it. The hills around Ekalaka,
however, do have a 25% chance of seeing 1" of accumulation during
the day Saturday. There should also be some gusty winds up to
30mph which may help blow around snow and reduce visibility.

The long term pattern is showing some more deja-vu. A broad ridge
will dominate the western CONUS as weak shortwaves/clippers ride
atop bringing repeated chances for gusty winds and light precip to
our area. A breakdown in this ridge may be possible towards the
middle of the month so those longing for meaningful snow should
stay tuned to the forecast! WMR

.AVIATION...
Updated at 0545z.
Through the remainder of the night, winds east of the foothills
will decrease while gap flow along the foothills increases. Expect
gusts to 50 knots at KLVM until a cold front arrives 16-18z. This
front will bring a shift to brisk W-NW winds across the western
foothills and lower elevations. Look for gusts to 35-45 knots at
KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ, and 25-35 knots from KBIL eastward tomorrow. In
addition to the wind, the cold front will bring a short period of
lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow. VFR will prevail
at lower elevations while the mountains become obscured. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/055 035/049 025/050 036/062 043/064 035/055 036/061
    13/W    02/J    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 034/050 025/046 022/055 035/062 039/060 033/059 036/062
    47/W    10/U    00/B    00/E    00/N    00/B    11/B
HDN 030/056 033/047 022/050 028/065 039/063 032/055 032/061
    13/W    22/J    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 032/054 030/038 019/044 027/063 041/060 030/053 031/057
    02/W    32/J    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 034/055 032/039 022/044 029/064 042/060 033/054 033/058
    02/W    22/J    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 029/052 024/035 011/039 020/058 035/058 028/052 027/054
    02/W    42/J    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B
SHR 028/057 028/044 019/049 028/068 036/062 030/055 032/062
    02/W    32/J    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until noon MST Friday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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