514
FXUS65 KBYZ 190038
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
638 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.UPDATE...

Winter Storm Warning for the Beartooth Absaroka mountains was
allowed to expire at 6PM. Current observations showed temperatures
in the high 30s and 40s at elevations ranging from 7-10,000ft.
Latest model guidance and observations suggest minor snow
accumulations will possible for elevations above 11,000ft.
However, this was not enough to extend the warning. Wind
highlights will be monitored this evening for possible early
cancellation. Torgerson

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...

Low pressure, currently over northeast Montana, will continue to
drift northeast tonight through Thursday. Expect gusty winds and
precipitation associated with the low to gradually push
east/northeast and diminish with time tonight into Thursday
morning. Precipitation totals so far have been very beneficial for
th are with 24 hour totals ranging from just over an inch in the
Billings area to with 2 to around 3 inches reported over portions
of central into south central Montana. Lighter amounts have been
observed over southeast Montana, but still beneficial with amounts
of a few tenths to over 1/2 inch. Winds have remained just shy of
High Wind Warning over the area, but still impactful with gusts
into the mid 50s at times. Snow, heavy at times, occurred over
the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains, mainly above 9,000 ft. The
Fisher Creek Snotel, located at 9,1000 ft has reported a snow
depth of 8 inches this afternoon, but with warming temperatures
this afternoon the snow accumulation has slowed thanks to
compaction. Plan on an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in the
high country, mainly above 9,500 ft through the rest of the
afternoon before ending.



Friday through Wednesday...

Pacific flow with near normal heights will persist Friday through
Monday. The general consensus among ensembles leans toward this
being a mostly dry period of weather, but there is some
uncertainty here. There are a couple of shortwaves embedded within
the flow. The first Friday and Friday night may bring some
showers (20-30% chance) along with a brief push of modest cold
advection. The second wave Sunday night and Monday may do the
same. That said, there are a few ensemble members (the least
probable of cluster analyses) that show one or both of these waves
being sharper and a bit wetter. Temperatures should be more or
less seasonable (highs in the 60s and 70s) for the third week of
September.

There is some confidence in a building ridge, and thus warmer and
drier conditions, toward the middle of next week. We could see
temps back near 80F.

JKL/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...


For tonight, winds will decrease in south central MT but remain
gusty in southeast MT with gusts to 35-40 kt there. LLWS is
expected around and after 07z near KSHR and areas east. Sky and
visibility conditions should improve in south central MT to VFR.
In southeast MT, ceilings will be MVFR to IFR with showers
gradually decreasing.

Thursday will be breezy with west/northwest winds gusting to 25-40
kt, strongest in southeast MT. In southeast MT, conditions will be
MVFR through about 19z, then VFR. There will be areas of mountain
obscuration in the morning. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail on
Thursday. RMS/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/073 049/076 047/065 044/071 050/069 047/073 050/079
    60/U    01/U    21/B    00/U    12/W    21/U    00/U
LVM 043/072 043/074 038/065 038/072 044/068 041/073 045/079
    30/U    01/U    11/B    00/U    23/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 051/074 046/077 045/066 041/072 045/070 044/073 045/080
    80/B    00/U    31/B    10/U    12/W    21/U    00/U
MLS 055/072 049/075 047/063 043/069 046/068 046/070 048/077
    71/N    00/U    21/B    11/U    12/W    11/B    00/U
4BQ 054/073 047/079 047/065 043/069 045/068 046/070 048/080
    61/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    12/W    21/B    10/U
BHK 051/070 045/079 043/065 039/068 042/069 043/072 045/078
    52/W    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/B    11/B    00/U
SHR 048/076 043/080 042/066 038/073 042/070 040/073 043/082
    50/U    00/U    21/B    11/U    13/W    21/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES
      29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-170-172-173-228-235.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE
      66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings