707
FXUS65 KBYZ 052126
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
226 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of heavy snow is moving through the area this afternoon
  reducing visibilities below a mile. Use caution driving. Snow
  will end from west to east through the evening.

- Another round of snow is expected Friday; 2-6" possible at lower
  elevations, and 6-12" possible in western mountains. Stay up to
  date with the forecast for this event.

- Another dose of Canadian cold air is increasingly likely early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Friday Night...

A band of heavy snow is moving through the area this afternoon
causing reductions in visibility to around a quarter mile. With
this, winds are generally light, but the snow rates are heavy
enough to reduce visibility significantly. As this band of snow
moves into south-eastern Montana later this afternoon and evening,
it is expected to weaken. With that said, the chance of snow
remains through south-eastern Montana today (15 to 30 percent
chance). By tonight, dry conditions will prevail outside of a few
isolated to scattered light snow showers in the Beartooth-Absaroka
Mountains.

Winds in the Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy Mountains have been
strong today, likely creating significant blowing and drifting
snow. The heaviest snow and strongest winds are still expected to
taper off late this afternoon into early this evening. Therefore,
the Winter Storm Warning for these mountain ranges looks to be in
good shape to drop off at 5PM MST this evening, but conditions
will be monitored.

After a mostly dry day Thursday, another round of snow is
expected on Friday. With this, confidence has increased a bit for
more impactful snowfall for much of the region, but uncertainty
remains. At this time, snow looks to move into areas west of
Billings Friday morning, then spread east through the day. The
snow then looks to come to an end Friday night into Saturday
morning from west to east. With this timing, the Friday morning
commute could be impacted in areas west of Billings, and the
Friday evening commute will likely be impacted across much of the
area. As the snow moves out Friday night into Saturday morning,
winds look to increase in far eastern Montana as well. This will
likely create patchy to areas of blowing snow. Something to keep
an eye on. As far as potential snow amounts go, the temperature
profile during this event looks to favor higher snow ratios and
efficient accumulating snow with a deep dendritic growth layer.
The parent wave is more open though, which is not as favorable for
more significant snowfall. The depth of the open wave remains
uncertain as well. At this time, there is a high chance of seeing
an inch or more of snow across much of the area. The chance of 4
or more inches is moderate to high in south-central Montana,
especially around and north of Billings, moderate in south-
eastern Montana, and low in Sheridan County, Wyoming. The higher
elevations of the Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy Mountains also have
a moderate, 70 percent chance of seeing 10 or more inches of
snow. Make sure to continue to monitor the forecast for changes
regarding the Friday weather system. Arends

Saturday through Wednesday...

Following the snow to end the work week, temperatures are
expected to stay cold throughout the weekend as well.

Late Saturday into Sunday a shortwave is expected to move through
the area coming in from the NW. Even though this system doesn`t
have the same moisture tap as the two before it, some light
precipitation can still be expected. The highest totals should be
confined to areas to the west and NW of Billings. Favorable 700mb
winds, however, could provide additional upslope flow in the
hills to the SE of town and the Pryor mountains. Any NW facing
aspect could pick up an additional inch or two than its
surrounding area early Sunday morning. Locations that are not in
the mountains can only expect 1-2" total of snow accumulation from
Saturday PM through the day Sunday.

The bigger story is what follows this snow. Cold air spills into
our area Sunday evening in similar fashion to the previous two
arctic intrusions. The cold is expected to be confined to the
lowest levels of the atmosphere, if not just within the PBL.
Winds are expected to be a little gusty with this arrival of this
Arctic air from the north with the strongest gusts (30mph) in the
Judith Gap area due to the gaping through the terian in the area.
Wind chills in the northern part of our CWA could touch -25F
every morning Mon-Wed with Wednesday being the coldest of these
days. Long range models are showing that a -35F wind chill is
possible for locations near Baker. It is worth noting that the
models did not do particularly well for wind chills this last
event, esepcailly in and around Judith Gap. So I would not be
surprised if that area gets some gustier winds and wind chills
near -40, esepcailly with the fresh snowpack.

After Wednesday there is some uncertainty regarding temperatures.
Some of the models/members want to warm us up to near average
while others keep us socked into the cold through the middle of
the month. It seems slightly more likely that temperatures will
remain cold simply due to the depth and expanse of the snow pack
to where even if we get multiple days of sunshine, it will take a
while to melt off the snow. WMR

&&

.AVIATION...

A band of +SN is moving through KLVM and K6S0 right now and is
expected to make its way to KBIL before 21z. VIS is 1/4SM with
this band and it is expected to impact KBIL through 22z. KMLS and
KSHR are not expected to see the same intensity with this line.
Winds behind this band shift out of the NW and clouds clear out
(CIGs raise). Tomorrow will bring widespread VFR conditions with
localized MVFR. Mountains will be obscured through the period.
WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 010/015 901/024 007/023 000/010 907/010 910/012
    11/B    39/S    80/U    12/J    54/S    32/S    21/M
LVM 012/033 015/021 007/027 011/027 001/015 904/013 906/016
    11/Q    59/S    60/B    11/B    33/S    22/S    22/S
HDN 901/026 008/020 904/022 001/022 902/012 910/011 913/012
    10/B    18/S    90/U    12/S    55/S    43/S    22/S
MLS 905/012 002/015 002/015 903/014 908/005 914/003 916/005
    00/U    06/S    80/B    00/B    22/S    21/B    11/B
4BQ 003/023 008/021 002/020 002/020 902/008 910/008 913/010
    20/U    06/S    80/B    00/B    22/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 906/010 902/015 901/012 905/012 912/002 916/001 917/004
    10/U    05/S    81/E    00/B    22/S    21/B    11/B
SHR 002/033 007/027 901/025 003/026 902/012 908/011 911/014
    20/B    17/S    70/U    01/B    24/S    33/S    21/M

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon
      FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings