907
FXUS65 KBYZ 052041
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
141 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts(40-60mph) develop over the western foothills
  this afternoon into Tomorrow. Travel impacts to I-90 and US-191
  possible.

- Gusty winds (30-40mph) over the rest of the area Tomorrow
  afternoon, with slightly weaker winds Friday.

- Cold front Friday night may produce light snow accumulations
  (dusting to an inch) for areas east of Hardin by Saturday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

Gusty winds will be the main weather theme for the next 48 hours.
After that cooler air builds in for the weekend, with a chance
(20-40%) for light snow accumulation over the eastern half of the
forecast area for Saturday morning.

Pacific trof moves through the area tonight, pushing a weak cold
front through the region. Frontal passage looks to arrive over
western zones around midnight, central areas ~3am, and through
SE Montana by sunrise tomorrow morning. Can`t rule out a few areas
of light precipitation along with the frontal passage, but overall
the main impact with this feature moving through will be gusty to
locally strong wind gusts, especiall over the western mountains
and foothills. Expect Gap winds to develop over the upper
Yellowstone and Stillwater river valleys later this afternoon,
becoming strong for a few hours around frontal passage time as
700mb winds in the 50-60kt range become aligned with the Paradise
and Upper Stillwater river valleys. Once winds shift to the west
behind the front the threat for strong (58+mph) gusts will begin
to diminish. Wind advisory looks good overall with the potential
for an early morning cancellation post frontal. Also overnight,
Mountain Wave induced wind gusts are expected further down the
Beartooth front into the Red Lodge area. At this point it looks
like the strongest winds (60-80mph) will stay in the mid to upper
slopes and not make it down to Red Lodge, but still expect some
gusts in the 40 mph overnight with the strongest winds forecast in
the 10pm to 4am timeframe. As the front moves past the wind
threat will trend downward.

The US-191 corridor will see winds increase tonight as well, but
the stronger winds for this area will be westerly mix-down winds
later in the morning through the afternoon hours. Guidance
continues to advertise wind gusts just under warning criteria for
this area, though speeds have increased just a tad as the hi-res
solutions come in. For now will continue to advertise gusts in the
45-55mph range and hold off on a warning, but close enough that
the mid-shift may elect to hoist one if 00z data comes in any
stronger. Winds across the rest of the forecast area will be gusty
with the frontal passage and then again tomorrow afternoon as the
afternoon mixing pulls down stronger winds from aloft. Most areas
will see westerly wind gusts top out in the 30 to 40 mph range.

Mountains will see light snow accumulations (1-4") on west facing
slopes tonight into tomorrow, while lower elevations should be
mainly dry with just a few sprinkles here and there overnight
tonight.

Next system for the area arrives late on Friday as a ridge builds
over the west coast and tilts the upper flow northwesterly,
opening the door for cooler Canadian air to drop southward into
the area. Ahead of this cold front will see another round of gusty
winds across the area, though lighter than Thursdays. Gusts in the
40 to 50 mph range can be expected over the western foothills,
decreasing to 20 to 30 mph for the rest of the area Thursday
afternoon.

Latest models are trending further west with the initial
disturbance dropping southeast late Friday, now crossing the
eastern half of the forecast area into Saturday morning. In
addition to dragging the colder air further into the area this
extra energy will bring a better chance for light precipitation
overnight into Saturday morning. The overlap between precipitation
and colder air is wider now compared to yesterday with models
advertising a better chance for light snow accumulation (generally
less than an inch) for areas east of Hardin, especially over the
higher hills on north facing slopes (upslope areas). The latest
NBM probabilities show widespread chances for a dusting of snow
(>0.1") at 40% or higher for this area, with probabilities for an
inch or more of snow accumulation confined mainly to higher
elevations of Carter/Fallon/Powder River counties at 30-40%. So,
those with travel plans Saturday morning east of Billings should
be prepared for the potential for light snow and locally slick
travel conditions.

Conditions dry out but stay on the cool side Saturday afternoon
through Sunday for the eastern half of the forecast area, while
western areas stay seasonally cool if not slightly above normal.
Current forecast shows highs staying in the 30s Saturday from
Rosebud county east, with a 10-20% chance for temperatures staying
in the upper 20s. On Sunday, probabilities for highs in the 20s
shift east to mainly over Fallon and Carter counties. Meanwhile
areas from Billings west will be looking at Saturday and Sunday
highs in the 45 to 55 degree range.

Ridging builds over the area early next week producing breezy,
dry, and warmer conditions through at least mid-week. The pattern
favors strong winds over the western foothills starting Monday
which may require further wind highlites. Chambers

.AVIATION...

East to southeast winds will continue over the area through the
late afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will increase along
the foothills west of KBIL this evening/tonight, with gusts up to
50 knots at KLVM. Mountain wave activity is likely over the
Absaroka/Beartooth mountains tonight, this includes terminals in
the immediate foothills such as KRED. Mountain snow will continue
through the period, resulting in obscurations. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/060 035/056 035/048 025/050 035/062 042/064 036/057
    00/N    04/W    11/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    00/B
LVM 038/054 035/051 024/046 024/054 035/063 038/061 035/060
    11/N    16/W    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    00/B
HDN 039/061 031/056 033/046 022/049 027/063 037/063 032/057
    11/N    05/W    42/W    00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 038/062 033/055 030/038 019/044 027/061 040/061 031/056
    00/N    01/B    31/N    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 043/060 034/056 032/039 021/044 029/061 040/061 034/057
    11/N    01/B    32/J    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 034/060 031/052 025/036 012/039 020/056 034/059 028/054
    00/N    00/B    31/N    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U
SHR 038/059 028/056 027/043 019/049 028/065 036/063 031/058
    12/W    04/W    42/J    00/B    00/B    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings