086
FXUS65 KBYZ 090008
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
608 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and weak t-storms, a bit warmer (70s to lower
  80s), and continued breezy conditions Saturday.

- Mostly dry with a warming trend (80s to lower 90s) Sunday
  through the middle of next week.

- Unsettled conditions return for the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows a slow-moving upper low over southern SK
with cyclonic flow over the region. The air mass is fairly dry and
we are not seeing any precip at this time, but as the low moves to
the east some moisture will wrap southward and bring our northern
tier some light showers tonight into early Saturday. Drier
downslope winds should prevail over the southern 2/3 of our cwa
(including Billings) with moderately gusty W winds persisting
along the foothills. Saturday, the shortwave over BC will drop
thru the northern Rockies, sustaining the cyclonic flow aloft and
providing a bit of ascent for afternoon/early evening showers &
weak t-storms over our west. CAMs are in reasonable agreement
here. Forecast soundings show tomorrow`s convection will be
shallow but w/ lingering low freezing levels cannot rule out
localized small hail. Breezy W-NW will continue tomorrow as well.
Have made some pop/wx adjustments for late tonight and tomorrow,
otherwise forecast is in good shape w/ cooler than normal temps
continuing. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday Night...

Despite the cooler than average high temperatures Friday, low
temperatures Saturday morning will be near normal in the 50s F for
most. Continued cyclonic flow from the upper level low, upper
level ascent, and wrap around moisture will create 20%
precipitation chances from northern Rosebud to northern Fallon
counties in the morning. High temperatures will rise slightly into
the mid 70s to low 80s F for Saturday while remaining 5-10
degrees below average. A tight pressure gradient Saturday morning
and 40 kt 700 mb winds with steep lapse rates in the afternoon
will create breezy conditions for much of the area. The entire
region has a greater than 50% chance for a wind gust over 30 mph
with locations from northern Rosebud to Carter counties having the
best chance (60-90%) of getting a wind gust over 40 mph.

Sunday, the 500 mb low continues to move off to the east creating
rising heights and temperatures. Dry conditions are expected with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s F. Torgerson

Monday through Friday...

Upper level northwest flow will remain in place Monday, before
becoming more zonal Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, troughing
is expected to set up over the Pacific Northwest, bringing an
unsettled pattern to the region.

Through Wednesday, a few disturbances in the flow may bring weak
convection during the afternoons/evenings, although the NBM
continues to lean towards drier solutions, with generally a less
than 20% chance each day. Late Wednesday, as the jet stream sags
south, a Canadian cold front will be pushed into the region,
bringing a 15-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight
into Thursday. Conditions will then remain unsettled Thursday into
the weekend as the disturbance over the west sends some energy
into the region.

High temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above
normal, in the upper 80s to low 90s, through Wednesday. Something
to note is that there is still a wide spread between the model
solutions for temperatures each day, often around 10 degrees
between the 25th and 75th percentiles and 20+ degrees between the
highest and lowest solutions. Part of this is likely driven by the
lack of sustained westerly flow and the periodic pushes of
northerly winds into the area, which typically do not favor above
normal highs. The NBM continues to favor warmer solutions and
currently, there is a 60-80% chance of highs greater than 90
Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing to 40-60% Thursday and 20-40% by
Friday. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for all sites through the period.
There is a low chance (10-30%) of showers and a weak thunderstorm
from K3HT to KBHK overnight. Breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30
kts will be common through the period as well. The highest gusts
are expected in the western foothills and along the Dakotas
border. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/080 055/085 059/088 060/090 060/091 061/092 059/085
    02/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 046/078 046/083 051/087 053/090 053/090 053/089 051/083
    02/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 054/080 052/085 056/088 058/092 058/092 060/093 058/087
    12/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    20/U
MLS 059/077 055/083 058/086 060/090 061/089 062/092 061/086
    22/W    00/K    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    21/B
4BQ 055/078 055/081 059/085 060/090 062/089 063/092 062/086
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U
BHK 054/073 052/081 056/086 057/086 058/088 059/090 058/084
    12/W    00/K    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    21/B
SHR 048/079 050/081 053/085 055/090 056/090 058/092 057/086
    02/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings