186
FXUS65 KBYZ 042019
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
119 PM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild conditions expected through the work week (50s-lower 60s).

- Stronger wind gusts develop over the western foothills Wednesday
  afternoon into Thursday. Travel impacts to I-90 and US-191
  possible.

- Best chances (40-60%) for light precipitation arrive Friday-
  Friday night.

- Near continuous light snow for west facing mountain slopes
  through Friday night.

- Cold front Friday night brings cooler and more seasonal
  temperatures and mainly dry conditions for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Progressive westerly Pacific flow aloft will keep a good deal of
cloud cover over the area this week. However precipitation chances
east of the divide will be low (10-30%) due to the persisten
downslope flow in this pattern. West facing mountain slopes
however will see nearly continuous light snow adding up to 4 to 8
inches through the end of the work week.

Downslope flow will also bring periods of gusty wind to the area.
Wednesday night into Thursday will be one of those periods with
Gap winds developing late afternoon over the upper Yellowstone and
Stillwater river valleys ahead of a late night frontal passage.
At this point wind gusts look to stay just below advisory criteria
in these areas with the surface pressure gradient struggling to
get into the double digits. That said 700mb winds line up straight
down the Paradise Valley and that combined with the pressure
perturbations along the front could bring a gust or two around 60
mph. For now will hold off on wind highlites for this area and
continue messaging in social media and with weather stories.
Another area to keep an eye on winds Wednesday night is the Red
Lodge foothills where models are hinting at moderate Mountain Wave
(30 to 45 mph) wind gust potential. The strongest winds for this
area look to arrive around sunset and peak as the Pacific front
moves through around 1-2am. Finally, the US-191 corridor is
looking at gusty post frontal westerly winds Thursday in the 40 to
50 mph range, with a 40 percent chance of a gust near 60 mph
around mid day. Elsewhere, Thursday looks mainly dry with breezy
(20-35mph gusts) northwest winds. Once we get into the hi-res
model time window will get a better look at these smaller scale
wind dynamics and will see if any adjustments to the Wed/Thu wind
forecast (possible highlites) might be needed.

A ridge builds along the west coast Friday into Saturday. This
feature tilts the downstream flow more northwesterly and opens
the door for cooler Canadian air to slide into the plains. Our
area gets sideswiped by this colder air as it heads into the
Northern Plains/Great Lakes, but there should still be enough
intrusion into our area to keep highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s east, and 50s west Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the Baker area
Sunday morning could drop into the mid teens. As the cold front
drops into the area late Friday into Friday night will see the
best chance for precipitation of the forecast period (40 to 60
percent). Despite good chances for precipitation, precipitation
amounts look light (less than 0.10in most areas). Cooler air and
diminishing precipitation look to overlap for a few hours Saturday
morning for what could be a shot of light snow (half inch or
less) across SE Montana. Overall does not look like any
significant winter weather impacts are expected from this light
and short lived activity, but will keep an eye on this snow
potential going forward.

Saturday afternoon and Sunday look dry and cooler. Monday sees a
downslope wind pattern return, warming and drying areas east of
the Rockies. Temperatures jump back into the 50s and lower 60s
Mon/Tue with breezy westerly winds and dry conditions. Chambers

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated showers
are possible through this afternoon, west of KBIL. Mountain snow
showers will continue into Wednesday morning resulting in
obscurations. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/057 041/061 036/057 035/048 026/049 034/062 040/061
    11/E    00/N    04/W    31/N    00/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 034/060 039/054 033/053 026/045 022/052 032/060 037/058
    21/N    11/N    16/W    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
HDN 033/061 039/062 032/058 033/047 022/049 027/062 036/061
    11/B    01/B    05/W    42/J    00/B    01/B    21/B
MLS 026/055 039/062 034/055 032/042 021/044 026/058 039/060
    00/B    00/N    01/B    32/J    00/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 031/058 044/060 034/056 034/042 023/044 028/059 039/058
    20/B    00/B    01/B    42/W    00/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 021/051 036/059 031/052 027/040 016/041 020/055 033/056
    01/E    00/N    00/B    32/J    00/B    00/B    10/B
SHR 030/062 037/059 028/056 029/044 020/048 026/064 036/060
    10/E    01/B    12/W    51/N    00/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings