436
FXUS65 KBYZ 220811
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Comfortable temps into next week.

- Very little chance of precipitation expected over the next
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

Currently most of the region is dry under northwest flow with the
exception of southeast MT where 700 mb frontogenesis is producing
showers with embedded thunderstorms. These showers are expected to
slowly move east through the morning. Following these showers,
there is about a 20% chance of fog for those places that received
moisture. A backdoor front will pass over to our north today,
keeping some energy over the higher terrain of the MT/WY border.
As a result, small chances of precipitation (25% or less) remain
for the morning and early afternoon for the Bighorns/Sheridan Co,
WY and surrounding areas. An isolated thunderstorm off the
Bighorns cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in the 70s
to around 80 today. Into Saturday, the region will remain under
dry northwest flow. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 70s
to low 80s. Smoke from wildfires across western MT should remain
aloft and have little impacts to the surface. TS


Sunday through Thursday...

Ensembles and cluster analysis give high confidence in a
relatively quiet extended period. The overall pattern of an upper
ridge axis to our west with a dry NW flow aloft, and low level
easterly winds will result in comfortable temps. Look for highs a
bit cooler than normal through Monday, then a bit warmer than
normal by midweek as the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east.

Thunderstorm potential will be largely suppressed by the NW flow,
but a little monsoon moisture under the ridge may produce isolated
convection over the higher terrain (mtns/foothills) of south
central MT and northern WY. Lower elevations should stay dry
initially, but by midweek there are hints of weak shortwave
possibly bringing a chance of weak thunderstorms to the lower
elevations. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period for most
sites. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in southeast MT
and northern WY may continue through 10Z and could result in
flight category reductions. Expect the chance for precipitation in
SE MT and NE WY to gradually decrease through early this morning.
Patchy fog cannot be ruled out for areas of southeast MT (KMLS,
KBHK). KSHR may see thunderstorms in the vicinity again after
19Z (25% chance). Reductions to slant range visibility are
possible at times due to smoke from local and regional wildfires.
BT/TS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 053/081 053/081 053/083 054/086 058/087 060/085
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 078 044/082 046/081 047/083 048/085 052/085 052/081
    0/U 00/U    00/B    01/U    11/U    23/T    23/T
HDN 080 051/082 050/082 050/084 051/087 055/088 058/087
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 078 050/078 050/077 050/080 052/085 058/087 058/087
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 077 053/076 051/075 051/079 053/083 058/084 058/083
    2/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 078 046/075 045/073 045/078 049/081 053/084 055/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 074 049/079 048/077 048/080 049/083 052/084 053/082
    3/T 20/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings