034
FXUS65 KBYZ 300407
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1007 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A moist and unstable air mass will bring a daily chance of
  thunderstorms through the week. Storms have the potential to be
  severe and produce very heavy rainfall. Flash flooding is
  possible. Stay weather aware!

- Generally cooler than normal temperatures through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...

The remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area has
expired. Thunderstorm intensity has diminished along the MT/WY
line over the past hour and widespread organized severe
thunderstorms are no longer anticipated. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday Night...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again this
afternoon and evening, with some possibly becoming strong to
severe. With good instability and shear, and well above normal
atmospheric moisture, large hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rainfall are the main threats. While the severe threat looks to
come to an end late tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms may
linger into the overnight hours (10 to 35 percent chance, greatest
in far eastern Montana). Taking a closer look at today`s
activity, there looks to be two parts to the shower and
thunderstorm chances. The activity north of Billings, associated
with a weak wave from the north, looks to be more isolated to
scattered, whereas the activity around and south of Billings,
associated with embedded energy in the southwest flow aloft, looks
to be more widely scattered. The area around and south of
Billings is also the area where the severe threat is greatest (2/5
risk from the Storm Prediction Center). While the heavy rain has
avoided the higher profile burn scars in southern Montana and
northern Wyoming so far this week (the Elk, Remington, and
Robertson Draw), these burn scars will be in play today. Those
with plans or property in and near these areas should remain aware
for rapidly changing conditions should heavy rainfall develop
over the burn scars.

Wednesday looks to be a bit quieter day as brief ridging builds
over the region. With that said, atmospheric moisture remaining
well above normal combined with subtle energy moving through the
flow aloft will favor the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again. During this time, a few
thunderstorms could become strong to severe with hail, wind, and
heavy rain being the main threats. Depending on how today pans
out, will have to assess how the flash flood risk trends for
Wednesday.

Temperatures today and Wednesday will be below normal in the 70s
and 80s across the region. Arends

Thursday through Monday...

Ensembles continue to prog southwest flow over the region through
the end of the week, becoming more of a progressive westerly flow
over the weekend into early next week. Weak shortwaves will
continue to move into the region each day. This, combined with
ample moisture with PWAT values greater than an inch most days
will allow for the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to
continue (20-50% most days). As the deep layer shear decreases
over time, so does the threat of severe thunderstorms, but with
ample moisture, the the threat of heavy rain continues. Localized
flooding is possible over areas that have recently received
rainfall and over area burn scars. This will need to be monitored
over the coming days. As flow turns more westerly, the PWATs
decrease some, and temperatures could trend a bit warmer.

Temperatures through the long term look to range from the upper
70s to the middle 80s most days. Highs could approach 90 degrees
late in the weekend into early next week. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

The scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit the
region through the late evening hours today. Behind this activity,
an isolated shower and embedded weak thunderstorm is possible
tonight, but confidence is low on impacts to any TAF sites.
Otherwise, low stratus and localized patchy fog is possible
tonight into Wednesday morning across the area. At this time,
there is a low to moderate chance of seeing MVFR ceilings at all
TAF sites. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/079 060/086 060/088 059/088 059/085 058/083 058/084
    44/T    32/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 053/077 054/082 051/086 051/084 051/081 049/080 049/082
    24/T    35/T    35/T    34/T    33/T    24/T    32/T
HDN 059/082 059/089 059/089 057/088 057/086 056/085 057/085
    43/T    32/T    53/T    43/T    34/T    22/T    32/T
MLS 061/079 061/085 064/087 061/089 061/087 059/085 060/085
    33/T    31/B    52/T    52/T    34/T    22/T    42/T
4BQ 060/078 061/082 063/086 061/086 060/084 059/084 060/084
    54/T    52/T    42/T    52/T    34/T    22/T    32/T
BHK 056/076 056/079 058/077 057/084 057/083 056/082 057/083
    43/T    31/N    43/T    52/T    33/T    32/T    32/T
SHR 055/079 055/085 054/086 055/086 054/082 053/083 053/084
    46/T    43/T    43/T    33/T    34/T    23/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings