200
FXUS65 KBYZ 172016
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
216 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across south
  central and southeast MT during the afternoon/evening today
  through Monday. A few of these storms today could be severe.

- Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday could push 100 degrees
  with record highs possible.

- This stretch of warm and dry weather will bring an increased
  risk for wildfires. Take care to avoid causing a spark!

- Cold front will bring a return to seasonable, to slightly below
  normal temperatures Thursday into the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday night...

Currently, analysis shows a weak disturbance over Idaho, moving
into the region under southwest flow. This is expected to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon and evening. Storms will begin developing over the
higher terrain early in the afternoon, tracking northeast through
the afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms will
be heavy rain, strong winds and hail. With above average
atmospheric moisture and slow moving storms expected, any strong
storms have the potential to produce heavy rain and localized
flooding. For Monday, another round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms is expected to initiate off of the mountains mid
afternoon. There is some lower confidence in storms maintaining
themselves past the foothills given the lack of instability onto
the plains 250-750 J/kg for both days. Shear values look to be
sufficient (25-30 kts), but not the most favorable. High
temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s today and Monday.

Additionally, smoke from wildfires in southwest MT and north
central WY will at times push smoke into the region. To monitor
air quality, check fire.airnow.gov. TS


Tuesday through Saturday...

Ensembles and guidance remain in good agreement through the long
term. There remains high confidence in a strengthening ridge of
high pressure for Tuesday and Wednesday bringing hot and dry
conditions, and with it increased fire weather concerns.
Temperatures will be into the 90s most places Tuesday, approaching
100 degrees, or even a bit higher for some locations on
Wednesday. Record highs could be approached on Tuesday, and are
possible at all locations on Wednesday. Heat products will likely
be needed for portions of the area. Afternoon humidity looks to
fall into the teens and potentially lower for some locations
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds do not look overly strong at this
time. Isolated weak high-based convection cannot be ruled out
late Wednesday (20% or less chance), but otherwise Tuesday &
Wednesday look dry. A dry cold front is currently progged to cross
the area late Wednesday night, but there is some uncertainty with
the timing of the frontal passage, and the strength of the post-
frontal winds. Also, smoke from upstream wildfires, which if thick
enough may impact temps, mixing and winds.

Behind the wave Wednesday night, there remains high confidence in cooler
conditions and higher humidity for Thursday into Saturday. Temperatures
trend from the 80s on Thursday, to the upper 70s to lower 80s
Friday and Saturday as a potential backdoor front drops in. NW
flow, easterly upslope surface winds, and increasing PWATs will
bring at least some low chances for showers and thunderstorms
(15-30%) to portions of the area. There remains uncertainty in the
details however. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain this
afternoon, moving northeast through the afternoon and evening
hours, with all TAF sites potentially impacted. Storms may
produce gusty winds of 30-50 kts, locally heavy rain, and brief
reductions to MVFR-IFR. VFR will prevail late tonight as
thunderstorm activity diminishes. Slant range visibility will
continue to be reduced at times from regional wildfires. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/092 061/100 065/100 064/086 060/081 057/082 056/085
    42/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    01/U    01/U
LVM 051/089 054/097 058/095 054/086 050/082 047/083 049/085
    62/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    01/U    12/T
HDN 059/093 060/100 062/101 063/088 058/083 055/083 055/087
    40/U    20/U    00/G    00/U    21/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 063/091 064/100 071/101 068/087 059/079 055/079 055/082
    31/U    00/U    00/G    10/U    31/U    10/U    10/U
4BQ 063/089 063/097 072/100 068/088 060/079 056/078 055/081
    31/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    42/W    21/U    11/U
BHK 061/088 061/096 066/098 062/085 054/077 050/076 050/077
    22/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    21/U    10/U    10/U
SHR 055/089 057/096 060/098 062/086 054/079 051/080 052/083
    21/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    32/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings