806
FXUS65 KBYZ 121948
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.

- Much cooler with a good chance of precipitation Monday night
  into Thursday next week.

- Conditions become dry with highs near normal (mid 80s to low
  90s) by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Monday Night...

After a morning with chilly temperatures in the 40s to low 50s,
temperatures have roared back up to the upper 80s as of 1pm, with
highs in the low 90s still expected later this afternoon. Winds
are slightly breezy, gusting 20 to 30 mph this afternoon as well.
Upper-level flow flattens a bit on Sunday, keeping warm and dry
conditions around, but with slightly lighter winds across the
area.

A pattern change to wet and cool conditions will occur behind a
frontal passage on Monday. While timing of the front is still
uncertain, latest guidance is pointing to a phased passage, with a
drastic wind shift Monday morning, but winds not picking up until
later in the morning and early afternoon. The onset of the cooler
weather is also uncertain behind the front, so Monday`s high temp
forecast has a range from 85-95. This change to slightly
unsettled weather will bring a small chance for storms across
southeastern Montana. Vertz

Tuesday through Saturday...

As a trough moves across the region, conditions will remain cooler
and unsettled into Thursday. There is still disagreement between
the models on how quickly this system will exit the region, which
will impact the chance of precipitation and how cool temperatures
will be Thursday.

Currently, there is a 50-70% chance (highest over the mountains)
of at least 0.25 inch of precip over much of the region Tuesday
through Thursday. With the cooler temperatures, snow levels look to
drop just below 12,000 feet in the overnight hours, leading to a
20% chance of light snow over the highest peaks.

Models are in better agreement for ridging to build in for the end
of the week, returning temperatures to near normal. There are
also signals that unsettled weather will return by early next
week.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
40-60% chance that highs will remain below 70 for most of the
region. By Thursday, temperatures are expected to warm, although
how much will depend on when the system exits the region.
Currently, highs are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s. By
Friday and Saturday, highs will be near normal, in the mid 80s to
near 90. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail. Skies will continue to clear this
afternoon. Winds will become light overnight. Archer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/095 064/094 059/068 055/071 052/078 056/085 057/089
    00/U    01/U    45/T    63/T    11/B    11/U    10/U
LVM 053/092 056/093 053/069 049/073 047/080 049/086 051/088
    00/U    12/T    46/T    64/T    12/T    21/U    11/U
HDN 058/095 061/094 059/071 054/073 050/080 054/086 056/089
    00/U    01/U    44/T    63/T    21/B    21/U    10/U
MLS 061/096 063/094 061/071 056/071 052/075 055/083 058/088
    00/U    10/U    44/T    64/T    21/B    21/U    10/U
4BQ 062/093 066/094 062/074 057/073 053/075 057/084 058/086
    00/U    01/U    43/T    64/T    31/B    20/U    10/U
BHK 056/092 063/095 056/069 052/070 048/074 051/081 055/085
    00/U    01/U    44/T    64/T    21/B    21/U    21/U
SHR 054/092 058/092 056/073 052/074 048/079 051/086 052/088
    00/U    01/U    34/T    54/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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