431
FXUS65 KBYZ 221405
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
805 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms for much of the area today & Thursday.
  Storms could produce very heavy rainfall.

- Thunderstorms have the potential to create very heavy rainfall
  over burn scars this evening. Plan ahead if recreating near any
  burn scars.

- This weekend into early next week is looking hotter & drier; a
  return of triple digit heat expected (starting Friday). Fire
  danger may increase.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast is in good shape, with risk of very heavy rainfall
capable of producing flash flooding, especially along mountains
and foothills, this afternoon and evening. Mesoanalysis has pwats
of 1.2" even in our far west. There is weak energy lifting thru
the great basin that will bring ascent and thunderstorm
development later today, but in the meantime there are a few light
elevated showers in the west and have adjusted pops/wx a bit to
account for this. Look for high temps in the 80s to lower 90s
today. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Monsoonal moisture continues to work in under anticyclonic flow
across the western US. Weak forcing and instability is producing
slow moving showers and thunderstorms resulting in heavy rain
across Wyoming this past evening. These showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move north and east across the WY/MT border
through the overnight hours. For this afternoon and evening, hi-
res models are showing more robust showers and thunderstorms with
consistent runs initiating showers and thunderstorms over the
Absaroka /Beartooths early to mid afternoon. With anomalously high
pwats of 1.2-1.5" and modest instability (MUCAPE up to 1000
J/kg), thunderstorms will have even better potential to produce
heavy rainfall. Those recreating in the mountains and foothills,
especially near any burn scars, should plan ahead as conditions
can change quickly. With instability extending through Thursday
morning, showers will are likely to persist across southeast MT. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains and area foothills along with the Bighorns and their
area foothills 1pm today through 2am Thursday.

Weak subsidence is expected move in late Thursday through
Saturday, allowing for warmer and drier conditions. Moderate to
high chances for temperatures of at least 100 degrees F exist
Friday for areas Billings east, with high chances extending to
most of the region Saturday. Similar probs as Friday exist for
Sunday. Ensembles are hinting at energy moving through northern
MT over the weekend which would increase wind potential and thus
fire weather concerns. As we enter a warmer and drier period,
those who missed precipitation over the week should use extra
caution as to not cause a spark. TS

.AVIATION...

A few showers will linger across the MT/WY border area into the
early morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon over the
mountains and foothills, moving from west to east into the
overnight hours. The best chance (40-60%) is over the mountains
and along the MT/WY border. Localized visibility reductions due
pockets of heavy rain are possible. Wildfire smoke from the
Pacific NW may produce slant range visibility reductions at times,
but surface visibility reductions are not expected. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 067/094 068/103 069/105 070/100 068/096 068/097
    2/T 21/B    11/G    21/G    21/U    10/U    21/U
LVM 084 058/093 059/099 060/101 060/097 059/096 058/095
    4/T 52/T    10/U    21/N    11/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 091 065/094 064/103 066/105 067/101 066/099 066/098
    2/T 21/B    10/G    21/G    20/G    10/U    21/U
MLS 090 066/095 068/105 069/107 073/101 069/099 070/100
    0/B 10/B    00/G    10/G    10/G    10/U    21/U
4BQ 087 065/090 066/102 069/104 071/100 068/098 068/097
    0/B 33/T    00/G    11/G    10/U    11/U    22/W
BHK 086 060/093 063/102 066/106 069/100 064/098 065/098
    0/U 00/B    00/G    01/G    11/U    11/U    13/W
SHR 087 061/088 060/099 064/102 066/098 063/095 063/095
    4/T 65/T    00/U    11/G    11/U    12/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Flood Watch in effect from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through
      late tonight FOR ZONES 56-64>67-138-139-169>171.
WY...Flood Watch in effect from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through
      late tonight FOR ZONES 198-199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings