796
FXUS65 KBYZ 100643
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1243 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- WILDFIRE SMOKE KEEPS SKIES HAZY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND
  WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
  QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.

- SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
  TODAY AND TUESDAY.

- COOLER WITH A GOOD CHANCE (30-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDWEEK (LATE WED-FRI). STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 days (Through next Sunday)...

First thing, wildfire smoke will likely continue to impact our
region for the foreseeable future, keeping skies quite hazy, with
reduced surface visibilities and poor air quality at times.

Satellite imagery shows the relatively stagnant upper flow
pattern over the western and central CONUS, with a dome of high
pressure centered over the southern Rockies and relatively flat
westerly flow over our area. Monsoon moisture continues to be
suppressed to the south of our CWA. However, the pattern generally
keeps low level flow easterly. Models continue to indicate low
level moisture advection from the plains into our region this
week. Some decent moisture will reside along the Dakota borders
through Tuesday with a slight chance of thunderstorms in our
southeast. Then by Wednesday, ensembles agree PWATs will be
trending upward quite a bit as that easterly flow is able to tap
deep moisture from the Great Plains. PWATs over an inch are
progged as far west as Billings by late Wednesday. A trough
dropping into the Pacific NW at midweek will gradually shift our
mid level flow to the southwest opening the door to Pacific and
monsoonal moisture along with related impulses. Thus, our PoPs
jump up to 30-70% across the region by Wednesday evening and
continues through the end of the week. Storms should be capable
of locally heavy rainfall due to the anomalously high PWATs for
this time of year.

Timing of waves and periods of ascent/subsidence into late week
are difficult to determine now, but generally speaking ensembles
suggest moisture will remain elevated and the risk of t-storms
will continue into the weekend.

Temperatures will transition from above normal early this week to
below normal at the end. Look for upper 80s to mid 90s Monday and
Tuesday, followed by 80s Wednesday, then 70s to lower 80s
Thursday through the weekend. BT



.AVIATION...

Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region, reducing slant
range visibility and occasionally surface visibility to MVFR
(generally 4SM or 5SM). Surface visibility reductions are most
likely over south-central and western Montana and northern
Wyoming. KLVM is the most likely terminal to experience reductions
below 6SM. LA/PM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 064/093 063/084 059/075 056/073 055/076 055/082
    0/K 00/K    01/B    76/T    85/T    54/T    52/W
LVM 093 054/092 054/085 050/075 047/073 045/076 045/081
    0/K 00/K    01/B    56/T    87/T    66/T    54/T
HDN 094 059/094 060/086 056/078 052/075 050/077 050/083
    0/K 00/K    02/T    67/T    74/T    44/T    42/W
MLS 092 062/093 061/083 057/076 054/075 052/076 053/081
    0/K 00/K    14/T    57/T    86/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 095 063/094 063/084 058/075 056/075 054/076 054/080
    0/K 00/K    07/T    67/T    86/T    54/T    43/T
BHK 091 057/093 055/082 050/074 048/073 047/075 047/079
    1/K 12/K    25/T    66/T    87/T    43/W    33/T
SHR 095 058/093 058/085 054/076 052/073 049/074 049/079
    0/K 00/K    03/T    78/T    88/T    67/T    54/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings