178
FXUS65 KBYZ 070517
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1117 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of fog exist for much of the region Wednesday
  morning, especially along the immediate foothills.

- Warm conditions will return to end this week. Expect diurnal
  rises on rivers and streams through the weekend.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
  Thursday into Friday. The chance of precipitation returns
  Sunday into early next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Showers have gradually cleared through the morning leaving low to
mid stratus clouds. As conditions continue to clear, the chances
for fog increases (about 20%) across the region after midnight
tonight, especially across the immediate foothills. Any fog that
forms should clear up just after sunrise. A small chance for light
showers exists over the southwest mountains and far southeast MT,
otherwise, the region will remain dry. Breezy conditions will pick
up for areas along the highways 212 and 310 beginning after
sunrise with gusts 25-35 mph expected, gradually diminishing into
the evening. Low temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 30s
and low 40s with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. TS


Thursday through Tuesday...

Warm, above normal temperatures will return Thursday through at
least Monday as upper level ridging moves through the region.
During this time, temperatures across the lower elevations are
expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday, and
upper 70s and 80s Saturday into Monday. Some areas along the river
valleys of eastern Montana could also see 90 degrees this weekend
into Monday (50 to 75 percent, greatest around Miles City in the
Yellowstone River valley). With temperatures this warm, mid-
elevation snow melt is expected to increase. This will bring
diurnal rises to rivers and streams across the area, but mainly
along the foothills. Those with property or recreation plans on
waterways this weekend should be aware of the increased flows.
Flooding is not expected at this time.

While the ridge of high pressure will bring generally drier
conditions to the region to end this week, the chance of
precipitation will remain ahead of and behind the ridge axis.
Ahead of the ridge axis on Thursday and Friday, showers and
thunderstorms are possible (15 to 50 percent chance). There is not
much upper level support or forcing for this activity though, so
no strong thunderstorms are expected at this time. Snow levels are
also expected to be around 10,000 feet during this time, so rain
on snow will have to be watched, but the precipitation forecast
remains relatively light. The chance of showers and thunderstorms
returns Sunday behind the ridge axis as a disturbance rides the
southwest flow over western/central Montana (15 to 50 percent
chance). This is a pattern for stronger thunderstorms this time of
year, but this depends on whether gulf moisture can make it into
the area. Right now, models continue to show more limited low
level moisture. Either way, this will be a period to keep an eye
on going forward.

Another low pressure system is expected to develop over the west
coast of the United States next week. Timing and strength of this
system are still very uncertain, but it will at least bring cooler
temperatures and increased chances of precipitation back to the
region as it moves though the region sometime next week. Arends
&&

.AVIATION...

06z Discussion...
As winds lighten over the coming hours some FG development is
possible. This FG could be locally dense at times through 14z
this morning. After 14z expect VFR conditions to prevail with an
increase in winds. Most sites should see winds remain under 15kts,
however, KMLS and KBHK (as well as sites nearby) could see some
gusts up to 25kts this afternoon. Mountains will be obscured
through 15z. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 037/073 051/080 051/078 053/086 058/087 059/085
    4/R 00/U    03/W    41/U    00/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 046 035/071 046/075 044/077 048/082 053/082 053/077
    2/O 01/U    04/W    31/U    01/U    14/T    34/W
HDN 052 036/074 044/080 049/080 051/086 053/090 057/087
    6/R 00/U    02/W    42/W    00/U    12/W    33/W
MLS 056 042/074 051/082 052/078 053/089 057/090 058/088
    4/R 00/U    02/W    32/W    00/U    11/B    32/W
4BQ 052 041/071 051/078 052/076 052/084 057/088 059/087
    4/R 10/U    01/U    21/U    00/U    01/U    22/W
BHK 060 041/071 049/080 048/076 049/085 054/088 055/087
    3/R 00/U    01/U    21/U    10/U    10/U    21/B
SHR 044 034/070 041/075 045/074 046/082 050/085 054/083
    7/O 11/U    03/W    33/T    10/U    02/T    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings