350
FXUS65 KBYZ 102357
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
557 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy conditions are expected to re-enter parts of Montana late
  Monday. Smoke concentrations are expected to be lower than was
  experienced Sunday.

- Mostly dry with a warming trend (80s to mid 90s) through the
  middle of the week. HeatRisk level 2 out of 4 forecasted for
  Wednesday.

- A lot of uncertainty with what happens for the end of the week.
  Cool and unsettled is now just about equal chances with hot and
  dry. Stay tuned to the forecast for more clarity through the
  early week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday Night...

Westerly winds are expected to push smoke out of Montana and into
the Dakotas this evening and overnight. Monday, an upper level
wave to our north will drop into the northern plains. This will
bring a weak cold front through the region and create enough
forcing for low chances of showers for Miles City and east. This
cold front will bring northerly winds increasing the likelihood of
smoke returning. Currently however, models are keeping smoke
concentrations lower than our current plume. Still, reduced air
quality and hazy conditions are possible Monday. 500 mb ridging to
our west and troughing to our east will keep the region in
northwest flow keeping temperatures in check. Rising heights will
allow temperatures to continue to warm into the 80s to low 90s F
Monday and Tuesday. Torgerson

Wednesday through Saturday...

Wednesday is shaping up to easily be the hottest day of the week
as there looks to be prominent downslope warming occurring
throughout the day. Temperatures are currently forecast in the
upper 90s, with a HeatRisk of 2 out of 4 for most of southern MT
and northern WY, meaning Wednesday`s conditions will affect those
who are sensitive to heat, especially without cooling/hydration,
as well as various health systems and industries.

For the past couple days we`ve discussed a pattern change
occurring for the second half of the week, and while that still
looks to be the case, latest ensembles are slowly coming into a
solution that provides only a slight relief in temperatures. This
is due to the upper trough essentially swinging east just north of
the state, and leaving us in a zonal to southwest flow. One item
to note though is a strong, low-level southerly push progged to
occur over the plains, opening up the window to bring a surge of
moisture from the Gulf and into the area, bringing about a sign
for some storm potential. This is backed up by a small probability
of severe storms occurring these days as indicated through local,
machine learning guidance via CSU. While still a 5-10 degree
temperature spread for Thursday and into the weekend, overall
expect that range to hover around near-normal temperatures just
just above normal for this time of year. Vertz

&&

.AVIATION...

Surface and slant range visibility will continue to improve this
evening over eastern Montana as the smoke moves into the Dakotas.
On Monday, a front is expected to bring northerly winds back
across the area. With this, isolated showers are possible around
KMLS and KBHK, but impacts to the airfields look to be minimal to
none. The northerly winds will also bring wildfire smoke back into
eastern Montana by late Monday into early Tuesday morning. While
smoke concentrations look to be less than today, surface
visibility impacts remain possible (moderate chance). Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/087 059/092 063/097 063/090 059/085 061/089 060/091
    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    21/U    11/U
LVM 052/086 051/091 055/094 055/091 050/087 052/088 052/088
    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 057/087 057/092 060/098 061/092 059/086 060/091 059/092
    10/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    21/B    10/U
MLS 059/085 057/087 063/095 064/091 061/085 063/090 062/091
    12/W    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/B    21/B    21/U
4BQ 060/087 058/087 063/095 066/091 063/087 064/089 063/089
    01/H    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    31/B    21/U
BHK 057/084 052/082 058/093 060/090 058/085 058/086 059/086
    12/W    00/U    10/U    10/U    21/U    21/B    21/U
SHR 054/086 054/089 058/095 060/091 057/085 058/089 056/089
    21/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    21/B    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings