820
FXUS65 KBYZ 210734
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
134 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front exiting the region this morning will result in much
  cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Very little precipitation expected over the next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

As the cold front continues to move across the region, breezy
conditions (gusts around 20 to 30 mph) and isolated showers and
thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will continue over the north and
east through the morning hours.

During the afternoon and evening hours today and Friday, daytime
heating will provide enough instability for isolated showers and
thunderstorms (10-30% chance) over the mountains and foothills.

The best chance for precipitation will be tonight into Friday
morning over southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming as convergence
from a nocturnal low level jet over runs the frontal boundary
aloft, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-60%
chance).

Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region at times,
mainly with occasionally hazy skies. Currently, any visibility
reductions or impacts to air quality are expected to be minor.

High temperatures today will be around 10-20 degrees cooler than
yesterday, generally in the low to mid 80s, as the upper level
flow turns out of the northwest, pulling cooler Canadian air into
the region. Friday will also be slightly cooler, with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Archer


Saturday through Wednesday...

A rather quiet period of weather is expected in the extended
forecast. Ensemble and cluster analysis show strong confidence in
an upper ridge axis to our west prevailing with weak northwest
flow over our region. This will suppress the better moisture and
forcing to our south keeping our area mostly dry. PWAT values are
still progged to remain under 0.75 inches despite a persistent
easterly low level flow. The easterly winds under mid level
northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side of seasonal
with readings in the upper 70s and 80s. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Look for
scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
through 12Z, but confidence on any impacts to TAF sites remains
low due to the isolated nature of the activity. Otherwise, look
for slant range visibility reductions at times due to smoke from
nearby and regional wildfires. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 060/078 054/082 054/080 054/081 054/083 056/084
    1/U 10/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 085 050/078 045/082 047/081 048/079 047/082 051/083
    1/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    12/T
HDN 085 059/080 052/082 051/081 051/082 051/084 053/085
    1/U 20/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 085 061/078 052/077 051/076 050/078 053/081 056/083
    2/U 10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 085 061/078 053/076 052/075 051/077 053/078 056/081
    2/W 51/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 085 056/077 046/074 046/074 046/075 048/079 051/082
    1/U 20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 084 054/077 050/079 049/078 049/078 048/079 051/081
    3/U 43/T    20/U    00/U    11/B    12/W    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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