110
FNUS51 KBUF 150804
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
A broad wave of low pressure aloft will gradually shift east of the
region later today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon. The next closed low will then
gradually cross the Great Lakes over the weekend, resulting in
several additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms through
at least Saturday night. Much cooler and generally drier weather
behind this system expected to last through the first half of next
week.

NYZ201-152000-
Lake Ontario Plains-
403 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Fri
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Pcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                  40           30           70
Chance of Thunder (%)              20           20           50
Max/Min Temp                       76           57           80
Min/Max Humidity (%)               52          100           53
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                      S  5
PM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var        SW  6
Precip Amount                    0.03         0.02         0.11
Precip Duration                     1            2            9
Precip Begin                     2 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6040                      4220
Transport Wind (kts)             S  7        SE  6        SW 15
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               42280            0        63300
Dispersion Index                   42            0           63
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-152000-
Southern Tier-
403 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Fri
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                  50           60           80
Chance of Thunder (%)              50           50           50
Max/Min Temp                       75           58           81
Min/Max Humidity (%)               49          100           44
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                      S  6
PM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var        SW  7
Precip Amount                    0.07         0.09         0.14
Precip Duration                     2            2            8
Precip Begin                    11 AM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6600                      7850
Transport Wind (kts)             S  7         S  6         W 18
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               46200            0       141300
Dispersion Index                   46            0          141
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 60s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
around 50. Highs in the mid 50s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
50s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs around 60.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.

WIND FRIDAY NIGHT...South around 5 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...South around 10 mph.
WIND SUNDAY...Southwest around 10 mph.
WIND MONDAY...Northwest around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Northeast around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$