778
FNUS51 KBUF 150905
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure will pass just north of the area this afternoon through
tonight, with rain quickly developing from west to east this
afternoon. The rain will taper off later this evening following the
passage of a cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over
New England tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the
eastern Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring
lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through
Monday, and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario with light to locally moderate accumulations.

NYZ201-152100-
Lake Ontario Plains-
404 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy       Cloudy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  90          100           80
Chance of Thunder (%)              20           20            0
Max/Min Temp                       55           33           43
Min/Max Humidity (%)               56          100           54
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                  W 15 G32
PM Wind (mph)               SE  6 G20    SW 10 G27     W 15 G31
Precip Amount                    0.20         0.27         0.15
Precip Duration                     4            8           11
Precip Begin                    12 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           1960                      6830
Transport Wind (kts)            SE  7        SW 16        NW 28
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               13720            0       191240
Dispersion Index                   14            0          191
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-152100-
Southern Tier-
404 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  80           90           70
Chance of Thunder (%)              20           20            0
Max/Min Temp                       56           32           41
Min/Max Humidity (%)               58          100           49
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                  W 14 G28
PM Wind (mph)                S  8 G21    SW 11 G24     W 15 G29
Precip Amount                    0.12         0.13         0.10
Precip Duration                     4            5            9
Precip Begin                    12 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           2170                      6390
Transport Wind (kts)             S 14         W 18        NW 32
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               30380            0       204480
Dispersion Index                   30            0          204
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely. Lows in
the upper 20s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows
around 30. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows
around 30. Highs in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain showers and freezing drizzle
likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.

WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...West around 15 mph.
WIND MONDAY...West around 15 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...West 5 to 10 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Southwest around 5 mph.
WIND THURSDAY...East around 5 mph.
WIND FRIDAY...Southeast 5 to 10 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$