885
FNUS51 KBUF 151805
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
104 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure will pass just north of the area this afternoon through
tonight, with rain quickly developing from west to east this
afternoon. The rain will taper off later this evening following the
passage of a cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over
New England tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the
eastern Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring
lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through
Monday, and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario with light to locally moderate accumulations.

NYZ201-152100-
Lake Ontario Plains-
104 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  90          100           70
Chance of Thunder (%)              50           20            0
Max/Min Temp                       56           35           43
Min/Max Humidity (%)               55          100           54
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                  W 15 G32
PM Wind (mph)               SE  7 G20    SW 10 G28    NW 16 G32
Precip Amount                    0.19         0.29         0.11
Precip Duration                     5            8           10
Precip Begin                    12 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           2170                      6380
Transport Wind (kts)            SE  6         S 15        NW 30
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               13020            0       191400
Dispersion Index                   13            0          191
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-152100-
Southern Tier-
104 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Sun
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms      Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  90           90           70
Chance of Thunder (%)              20           20            0
Max/Min Temp                       56           33           41
Min/Max Humidity (%)               55          100           52
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                  W 15 G30
PM Wind (mph)                S  9 G22    SW 12 G26    NW 16 G31
Precip Amount                    0.11         0.14         0.10
Precip Duration                     4            5            9
Precip Begin                    12 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           2280                      6560
Transport Wind (kts)             S 14        SW 17        NW 33
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               31920            0       216480
Dispersion Index                   32            0          216
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows
around 30.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs around
40.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs around 50.

WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...West around 15 mph.
WIND MONDAY...West around 15 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...West 5 to 10 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Southwest around 5 mph.
WIND THURSDAY...Northeast around 5 mph.
WIND FRIDAY...East around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$