560
FNUS51 KBUF 150204
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Broad weak low pressure over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
will gradually shift east before stalling along the Delmarva
Peninsula Thursday, resulting in a few showers through Thursday.
A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
afternoon. An occluded front will lift northeast across the
region early Friday, supporting the continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure associated with the
occluded front will then reside across the Great Lakes through
the weekend supporting continued chances for showers. While this
all sounds pessimistic, should note that the rest of the week
and weekend will have periods of dry time.

NYZ201-150800-
Lake Ontario Plains-
1003 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

                              Tonight          Thu    Thu Night          Fri
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Pcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                      None      Showers      Showers        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                   0           40           30           60
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0           50
Min/Max Temp                       56           76           56           79
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           57          100           49
AM Wind (mph)                              Lgt/Var                   Lgt/Var
PM Wind (mph)                   SE  5      Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var        SW  6
Precip Amount                    0.00         0.04         0.04         0.11
Precip Duration                                  1            4           10
Precip Begin                                  1 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                              Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)             40         5650                      6600
Transport Wind (kts)            SE 12         S  6        SE  5        SW 16
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                 480        33900            0       105600
Dispersion Index                    0           34            0          106
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-150800-
Southern Tier-
1003 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

                              Tonight          Thu    Thu Night          Fri
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Pcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                      None        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                   0           50           60           70
Chance of Thunder (%)               0           50           20           50
Min/Max Temp                       57           74           57           80
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           55          100           41
AM Wind (mph)                              Lgt/Var                      S  6
PM Wind (mph)                   SE  6      Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var        SW  7
Precip Amount                    0.00         0.06         0.09         0.17
Precip Duration                                  1            2            8
Precip Begin                                 12 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                              Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        6650                      8370
Transport Wind (kts)             S  9         S  7         S  6         W 16
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0        46550            0       133920
Dispersion Index                    0           47            0          134
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs around
70.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 50s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 50s.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the lower 60s.

WIND FRIDAY NIGHT...South around 5 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...Southeast around 10 mph.
WIND SUNDAY...West around 10 mph.
WIND MONDAY...Northwest around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...North around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$