071
FGUS71 KBUF 311621
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-061630-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1121 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

....NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH FEBRUARY 6TH...
This is an update to the second flood potential outlook of the
2025 season. Flood outlooks and briefings will be issued every two
weeks into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding.

Due to cold weather and periodic lake snows, the snowpack now
averages slightly above normal for most locations. The snowpack is
quite dry, and would require a period of warm weather before it is
ripe enough to run-off.

River and creek flows currently average below normal. The ground
is frozen across the region, with frost depths averaging 4 to 16
inches. There`s moderately thick ice on the Buffalo Creeks and on
some rivers which has the potential to cause ice jams if it
breaks up. Lake Erie is mostly frozen.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Friday
morning, January 31rd:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 14 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.5 to 1.5 inches.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 4 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than a half inch.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 14 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 2 inches.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 12 inches, 1.5 to 3 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 2 inches, 4 to 7 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through February 6th the overall risk for flooding is near normal.

Through Feb 5th, temperatures will be above freezing at times,
with periods of generally light rain or snow. This will help ripen
the snowpack some by Wednesday the 5th. On Feb 6th, low pressure
will track near or north of the region, and the system has the
potential to produce a soaking rainfall along with warm
temperatures. The probability of an inch or greater of rainfall is
15 to 50 percent.

There is little to no risk for flooding before Feb 5th, but the
system around Feb 6th has the potential to cause both river and
ice jam flooding Feb 6th - 8th. Basins with a 20 to 30 percent
risk for flooding include the Buffalo Creeks, Allegheny, and
Genesee River basins with a lower risk in the Black River basin.


...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel