573
FGUS71 KBUF 201342
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-271345-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
842 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025

....BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MARCH 6TH...
This is the fourth flood potential outlook of the 2025 season.
Flood outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks into
early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the
potential for flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Due to a prolonged stretch of cold weather and periodic snow, the
snow pack is above normal across the entire region. Snow water
equivalent (SWE) values average 150 percent of normal for the date,
with some locations 200 percent of normal.

River and creek flows average slightly below normal. The ground is
frozen across the region, with frost depths averaging 4 to 18
inches. There`s thick ice on the Buffalo Creeks and on some rivers.
Lake Erie is about 95 percent frozen.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday
morning, February 20th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........10 to 20 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1.5 to 4 inches.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........2 to 8 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.5 to 2 inches.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........8 to 16 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1.5 to 4 inches.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 2 feet, 3 to 5 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....2 to 5 inches, 6 to 13 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through March 6th the overall risk for flooding is below normal.

The key factor is that temperatures will average below normal for
the next two weeks, and the expected pattern is unlikely to produce
a warm, rain producing system. Despite the much above normal snow
pack, it would take a major warm up to melt and release this
potential run-off.

There is greater uncertainty during the end of the outlook period,
with a very small (5 to 15 percent) chance of flooding after Feb
27th.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel