589
FGUS71 KBUF 232116
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-302130-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

....BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH FEBRUARY 6TH...
This is the second flood potential outlook of the 2025 season. Flood
outlooks and briefings will be issued every two weeks into early
spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Due to cold weather and periodic lake snows, the snow pack has
increased to slightly above normal for most locations during the
past couple weeks. The snowpack is quite dry, and would require a
period of warm weather before it is ripe enough to run-off.

River and creek flows average below normal. The ground is frozen
across the region, with frost depths averaging 4 to 12 inches.
There`s moderately thick ice on the Buffalo Creeks and on some
rivers. Lake Erie is about 80 percent frozen.

The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday
morning, January 23rd:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 14 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.75 to 1.5 inches.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 4 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than a half inch.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 14 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 2 inches.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 to 12 inches, 1.5 to 3 feet Tug Hill.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 2 inches, 4 to 7 inches Tug Hill.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

Through February 6th the overall risk for flooding is below normal.

Colder than normal temperatures are expected for the next two weeks,
especially during the next 7 days. This cold and mainly below
freezing weather pattern is less likely to produce a significant
rain producing system.

There is greater uncertainty during the end of the outlook period,
with a limited risk for a rain producing system in the Feb 1 to 3
timeframe. While this potential will need to be monitored, the
overall flood risk is below normal for the next two weeks due to the
cold pattern and dry snow pack.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

This will be the final year this text product is issued. Starting in
2026 this information will be available online at:
www.weather.gov/buf

We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have
helped gather data in support of this outlook.

$$

Apffel