Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
298 FXUS61 KBUF 132326 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 726 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area this evening producing a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Dry weather will then return Thursday and last through Saturday. A minor drop in temperatures and humidity Thursday will quickly give way to another period of heat, peaking on Saturday. A weak cold front will then move south across the area Sunday with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mid level trough will continue to move east across Quebec through tonight, with a trailing weakly forced cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. This front may produce a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as it advances southward this evening. That said....poor shear, weak lapse rates, and waning instability will keep the chance of any stronger convection very low. A few storms will produce localized heavy downpours. Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from northwest to southeast with some partial clearing overnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight, especially across the valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also east of Lake Ontario. Thursday, mainly dry weather will return as high pressure builds into Ontario and Quebec, with a ridge axis extending down into the Upper Great Lakes. Northerly upslope flow and limited diurnal instability may produce an isolated shower or two across higher terrain, but the lake plains should stay completely dry. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Seasonably strong surface high pressure will drift from Quebec Thursday to New England by Friday and Saturday with a ridge extending back across the eastern Great Lakes. This will provide another stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will trend quickly upward with building heights and warm advection aloft. Highs by Saturday will likely reach 90 again for lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshores. The airmass stays relatively dry, so overnight lows will still be comfortable. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mid level trough will amplify across Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes Sunday through the middle of next week, while the strong/hot CONUS ridge is forced south and west. Flow adjustments around the digging trough over Quebec will force a cold front south across New England and the eastern Great Lakes Sunday with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Some runs of individual models and ensemble members over the past few days have suggested a wave of low pressure may then move along the frontal zone Monday, which may allow rain chances to linger early next week. Still plenty of uncertainty with the Monday through Tuesday forecast depending on the eventual location of the frontal zone and wave. What is more certain is a trend towards a cooler pattern starting early next week. Highs will drop back into the 70s areawide by Tuesday or Wednesday. This cooler pattern across the Northeast US appears to have some staying power, with the latest 8-14 day outlook favoring below average temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR this evening, but a pop-up shower or isolated thunderstorm with the southward advancing cold front may produce brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Overnight, the scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from northwest to southeast. Expect partial clearing overnight, and this will likely allow for some patchy fog and local IFR to develop. Fog will be most prevalent across the valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also east of Lake Ontario. Thursday, the fog will burn off by mid morning. This will leave VFR to prevail the rest of the day. Diurnal cumulus will develop late morning through the afternoon, especially across higher terrain inland from the lakes. A spotty shower or two is possible across the higher terrain, with the lake plains staying completely dry. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local IFR possible across the Southern Tier each late night and early morning. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes this evening. This front may produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves. Southwest winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range today ahead of the front, then become northwest tonight behind the front, with a light to moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northeast Thursday, and continue in the 10-15 knot range on Lake Ontario with a moderate chop. Conditions will become marginally favorable for waterspouts as the cold front crosses Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock MARINE...AR/Hitchcock