832
FXUS61 KBUF 281750
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move east across the area today, producing a
few more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
coverage of rain will be this morning east of Lake Ontario. High
pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes tonight
through Sunday, with a dry and less humid finish to the weekend.
Another cold front will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday,
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front extends from low pressure in west-central Quebec to
central Lake Erie this afternoon. A warm and humid airmass resides
across western and north-central NY with temperatures in the upper
70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The
synoptic front will move across the region this afternoon.
Anticipate southwest winds to persist northeast of the Lakes (after
frontal passage) due to a strong, southwest flow into this evening.

Cumulus/towering cumulus developed outside of the lake breezes this
afternoon. An organized area of thunderstorms is located across
western Pennsylvania which is casting a cirrus shield over the
western Southern Tier. With the exception of a storm over Oswego
county, little lightning has been observed so far in our forecast
area. Showers have been focused on boundaries west of the Saint
Lawrence River, Niagara to Monroe counties and inland western
Southern Tier. As we reach peak heating this afternoon, a few more
thunderstorms are possible with 30kts of effective shear, isolated
thunderstorms may become severe especially across inland areas of
the western Southern Tier. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
for Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Cayuga counties until 8PM.

The front will be east of the forecast area tonight. A drier airmass
will move into the eastern Great Lakes region. Some clearing and
light winds will likely result in patchy fog in sheltered valleys,
especially areas that recently measured rain. Sunday, warm but not
as humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will return to our region Monday, with a noticeable
uptick in humidity for WNY as dewpoints return to the lower 70s.

A steady south-southwest flow through the day will bring warming
aloft with 850 hPa temperatures around +18C will make for an
unpleasant afternoon with air temperatures in the mid to upper 80s,
and lower 90s for the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
region. Here is where we could also see heat index values exceed the
mid 90s...if a slower arrival of mid and high level clouds occurs.

Additionally on the periphery of a Lake Erie lake breeze
circulation, downward momentum will allow for portions of Niagara
and Orleans county (south of the Lake Ontario influence) to also
push heat index values into the mid 90s.

The 0-6 km effective bulk shear values remain on the lower side
through Monday evening, with thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
likely to be more of a heavy rain maker in an airmass with PWATS
near 2.00 inches, as opposed to damaging wind threat. Instability
remains Monday night with MUCAPE values 1500 to 2000 J/KG supporting
the threat for thunderstorms overnight as a convective augmented
shortwave passes through.

The cold front will pass across our region Tuesday morning. A slower
passage to the front may allow for enough instability to build
across eastern zones for thunderstorms to become stronger before the
front sweeps storms and moisture eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday broad upper level troughing will establish
across the Great Lakes region. Subtle shortwave troughs passing
through the flow will trigger shower and thunderstorm potential but
lacking much instability and initially much synoptic moisture
chances for storms will remain low...with the favored day for
afternoon and evening convection being Thursday ahead of a shortwave
trough in the mean flow.

Dewpoints Wednesday through Friday will be more tolerable, ranging
from the mid 50s to lower 60s. As the trough exits to the east to
start the weekend, a milder and moister airmass will begin to
advance across the eastern Great Lakes, with increased risk for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is across western Lake Ontario into Lake Erie this
afternoon. Cumulus has formed across western NY with a few showers
along a convergence zone across Niagara to Monroe counties and
across inland portions of the western Southern Tier. A complex of
thunderstorms is across western Pennsylvania has pushed a cirrus
shield into the western Southern Tier. Through the afternoon,
additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible inland from
Lake Erie and along the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Showers are
likely at KJHW and KIAG, while vicinity showers are possible at
KROC. Mainly low-end VFR conditions are expected, however high-end
MVFR are possible with cumulus development. A lake breeze will
likely keep KBUF dry and VFR today. Additional showers north of Lake
Ontario may reach the Saint Lawrence Valley this afternoon.
Confidence is low that KART will be impacted.

Drier air will move into the region tonight through Sunday. Patchy
fog is possible across the forecast area, with higher confidence of
fog in valley/sheltered locations that has measured rainfall
recently. This may result in reduced visibility late tonight into
Sunday morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

Dry weather with VFR conditions Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from
late afternoon through Monday night.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly
early.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible.


&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will then move east across the eastern Great Lakes
today, with winds becoming southwest on both lakes. Expect a
moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today into this
evening, but winds and waves are expected to remain just below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

High pressure will then build over the eastern Great Lakes late
tonight and Sunday, with light winds and minimal wave action for the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK